Rich Tandler is the author of Gut Check, The Complete History of Coach Joe Gibbs’ Washington Redskins. Get details and order at http://GutCheckBook.com
The Redskins have five games remaining in the NFL season. There are those who say that the team should use those remaining games to evaluate some younger players and perhaps shut down the season for the likes of Lavar Arrington to let him start rehab on his knee injury a month early. The competitive phase of the season is over, according to this line of thinking, and the few extra losses will improve the team’s draft position.
As well-intentioned as these folks are, there are just too many reasons to keep on fielding the team that gives the Redskins the best chance to win the most games.
The playoffs—Certainly, it’s far fetched that the Redskins could make the playoffs, but it’s very likely that an 8-8 team will make it in the NFC. So, until that ninth loss is in the right-hand column in the standings the team is playing for a playoff spot.
The playoff picture—This is much more grounded in reality. Of the five remaining games, four of them have potential playoff implications for the Redskins’ opponents. A loss to the Redskins will make the Giants’ road to the postseason extremely difficult. Whatever unlikely scenario the Cowboys have of making the playoffs hinges on beating Washington on December 26. A Minnesota loss to the Skins in the season finale could well force them outdoors for the first round of the playoffs. Similarly, a Redskins win over Philadelphia in two weeks might force the Eagles inside, in the Georgia Dome, for the NFC title game. The concept of integrity demands that the Redskins field their best team and give their best effort for those games.
Unintended consequences—As an example, one of the young players that some are suggesting should get a look is rookie tackle Jim Molinaro. Chris Samuels’ contract is getting to a rather sticky cap number (more on that later) and he may need to be replaced. So, the thinking goes, let’s see if Molinaro can get the job done so that we can see if the team would have to go out and get someone to replace Samuels or if his replacement is already on the roster. But such a move is fraught with danger. Suppose that Molinaro isn’t the guy and Patrick Ramsey takes one too many shots to his blind side and is injured and misses mini camps and some training camp while recovering. This isn’t training camp, it’s the regular season.
Winning breeds winning—And, on the other side of that coin, losing breeds losing. Sure, finishing at 5-11 last year got the team the fifth overall pick in the draft and Sean Taylor. But if anyone doubts that losing six of the last seven games of 2003 didn’t carry over into this season, regime change and all, you’re kidding yourself. If the Redskins lose, say, four out of these last five, nobody is going to remember how well this kid or that kid might have played. All that will be remembered is the losing and it will take that much longer to get into winning ways.
Learning how to win—This is related to the previous topic, but it involves more tangible aspects of the game than emotion. Before enjoying an extended period of success, a team must first figure out how to win. If you have a late lead, how do you hold on to it? If you’re trailing in the fourth quarter, what do you have to do to score to take the lead? The Redskins have too much experience in how not to finish of games this year; you can’t have too many reps in practicing the right way to do it.
Of all of the reasons to continue to make the best effort to win, the last one presented above is the most important. Gibbs’ first team, the 1981 Redskins, was essentially eliminated from playoff contention five games into the season. However, he did not choose to see what he had in the young quarterback Tom Flick and decided to leave veteran Joe Theismann in the lineup. Cornerback Joe Lavender clearly was near the end of the road (in fact he would retire in the offseason), but he still started every week because he gave the team the best chance of winning. Although the offensive line play was very shaky at times, he stuck with that no-name group of guys named Grimm, Jacoby, Bostic, May and Starke even though he had some relatively young but experienced backups.
What happened was that they rallied for some close wins and, in their last two games of the season, they built an early lead, kept the throttle open and routed the Colts and the Rams. They learned how to win, a skill that is not easily acquired mostly because opportunities to acquire it are rare. The Redskins are down to five of them this year. They can’t afford to waste a single one.
I mentioned the cap hit that Chris Samuels' contract might create in the coming season and promised an explaination. Here it is, according to PC, the resident salary cap wizard at this blog's home site, WarpathInsiders.com.
Remember that Samuels can void the last year of his contract (2006) at any time.
IMHO he WILL do this at the end of this season to pressure the Redskins into either negotiating a new contract, trading him or releasing him outright............or if we are prepared to take the cap hit that follows his decision he would be a free agent in 2006.
In any of these scenario's Samuels and his agent have the upper hand.
At some point in the next two years Samuels will be line for what he and his agent thinks will be a SIGNIFICANT contract.....along the lines of Ogden and Pace.
Samuels is due to count $9.643m against the 2005 cap AT THIS STAGE.
After Samuels voids the 2006 year of his contract the prorated signing bonus for 2006 (minus the Deion Sanders cap charge credit) accelerates into 2005.
The cap charge for Samuels then increases by $2.218m to $11.861m in 2005.
Now if we trade or release Samuels in 2005 (before his workout bonus is due and after he voids his 2006 year) we would take a 2005 dead cap hit of $4.426m - which means we would save over $7.4m against the 2005 cap.
This makes it almost as plain as the nose on your face that trading Samuels for a 1st round pick means that we not only get compensation for the player, but we are then able to use some of the cap savings to afford to cut Brunell.
Trading Gardner as well, would mean we eliminate all our overpriced vs performance players except maybe for Lavar who I have more faith in living up to his numbers than Samuels, Gardner or certainly Brunell.
I just need to make this clear to people talking about the Samuels situation.
To me this is a leading NFL QB type cap hit - not one for a very solid OL.
For the upcoming print edition of Warpath, I wrote a filler piece about the Redskins-Giants game in 1966 that Washington won 72-41. I wrote that the 113 points scored still stands as an NFL record for a game.
The Browns and Bengals nearly rendered that statement false before it saw the light of day. Their game ended at 58-48, their 106 combined points coming within at touchdown and an extra point of tying that record.
On their last possession the Browns, trailing by 10, had the ball and managed to get near midfield before giving it up on downs with 12 seconds left. Cincinnati then killed the clock, preserving their win, the Redskins' record, and my credibility.
Quick Analysis: The Redskins hung in there in a game that could have been a blowout. They were much more aggressive offensively than last week, although they did pretty much abandon the running game early. Ramsey suffered at least five drops and his one interception was a desperation pass after nearly having his head taken off. He got hit a lot, but not very hard (yeah, I know, easy for me to say). A loss is a loss, but this one was a step froward.
That third-down stop by the Steelers could prove to be huge if they put a drive together. We will see.
Passes to Ward, run by Betts has Pitt well into Washington territory. Smoot nearly kills the drive with an INT, but he can't quite hold on to it.
Bettis is running much better bouncing outside than I thought he could be able to. He gained eight on second and ten doing just that.
Jeff Reed gets his third FG of the game to make it 16-7 with just under 10 minutes left to play.
Cooley catches a first-down catch, giving him six for the game. Two incompletes follow, however, and it's another, well, you know.
A penalty kills another long Randle El return. Need a three and out, clock running under eight minutes..
Fourth sack of the game, this one by Marshall, sets up third and long. Solid hit by Taylor separates receiver from a ball the receiver was juggling anyway, fourth down. Redskins get ball near midfield after punt with 6:54 to play
Ramsey completes a fourth and two with a pass to Cooley, but throws a pick on the next play while under severe pressure. That will just about do it.
Ramsey has been rushed hard, but hasn't been hit hard a lot. That bodes well for the future considering what a brutal pass rush the Steelers have had.
The Redskins WR's seem to be too worried about getting the PI flag and not worried enough about catching the ball anyway. They're making the throwing the flag motion after almost every pass.
Redskins get second-half kickoff. If they're going to get back into it, now's the time.
Cowher is 86-1-1 when his team has been leading by at least 11 points at any time during the game.
Tell you what, assume that a Redskins possession is a three and out, like the one just concluded to open the second half. Figure it's draw, dropped pass, and sack; I'll let you know if anything else happens.
I just isn't going the Redskins' way. Washington is so free blitzing in on Ben that he just overruns him and the pass is completed to Ward for a first. It was Ward's first catch.
Skins get 15 in their direction. Steelers downed a punt inside the five, but one of them threw the ball at Lemar Marshall, drawing the flag. They'll start at around the 20.
After McCants has his hands on a long one (would have been a spectacular catch). Cooley takes a shot but holds on to a pass for a first down. That's about four catches for him.
Betts breaks a 26-yard run on second and one. It went off the right side behind Wilson. They follow it up with a false start, naturally. He's running well from scrimmage as he picks up a second and two.
Pass to Coles sets up first and goal at the three. This just in, receivers are catching the ball and not having to beg for flags.
After a PI sets up first and goal at the one, Skins will go for it on fourth and goal at the one and a half after a timeout. Two dives with Betts went nowhere and then Ramsey overthrew Kozlowski whi was wide open down the middle.
TD pass over the middle to Cooley. Drive 79 yards, 14 plays, 13-7 with 3:23 left in the third.
That drive provided a much-needed rest for the defense, it looked like Bettis was starting to wear them down a little.
Roethlisberger is mixing in some good plays with some rookie ones. The pass rush doesn't seem to rattle him, but it is hurrying him somewhat.
He was hurried on a third and five play and threw incomplete. Skins' ball at the 25.
Portis ran for seven on first down, then is replaced by Betts. Portis has just six carries for 17 yards through three quarters. Betts carries for two then one but is an inch or two short of the first. Oops, another three and out.
Steelers ball second and four at their own 21 at the end of the third.
I'm going to go ahead and post this during commercials, and have the title read "in progress" until the quarter is over.
Another big punt return by Randle El, this one 43 yards, so Pitt starts in Washington territory again at the 40. Steelers convert a fourth down after a nice ankle takcle by Taylor on Roethisberger set up a fourth and short. Redskins had 12 on field, but Bettis made it anyway.
Big Ben is not sharp at all, he is missing on some fairly easy passes.
Steelers get a TD after a dumpoff to Bettis gets them to the our and the Bus takes it in on the next play. That's 10 points set up by two punt returns. Need to kick away from Randle El. Better yet, need to put together a drive and not have to punt at all.
The great WR screen is back as Coles snares one for two yards.
Gardner needs to catch balls that are in his hands. He just dropped a first down pass on third and eight. Another punt, but Betts wraps R-E up on this one.
Pressure on Ben is diminishing, but he's still not very accurate. They're forcing him to throw from the pocket.
Nice third and ten pickup by Steelers. Pull off a screen against the blitz, Roethlisberger (forgive me if I misspell that one on the fly a time or two) had a nice sidearmed throw to the back and they picked up 25.
Taylor flagged for another personal foul, costing the Redskins 15 and giving the Steelers a first down instead of third and five. It was barely a bump, but the guy has a reputation now so he got the laundry thrown on the field. Sets up a 36-yard FG to make it 13-0.
It's hard to say this, but Ledell Betts returning kickoffs makes one nostalgic for Chad Morton.
Coles limped off the field, will update when it becomes available. My speculation is hamstring injury.
Gardner picks up a first then drops a bomb. Tough catch on the long one, but he needs to make that catch.
Dumpoff to Betts picks up 20 to the Steeler 41 at the two-minute warning. It looked like the defender fell down; will take anything we can get.
Coles is back in. He dropped one, seemed to be too worried about drawing a PI flag.
Sack on second down follows.
Redskins will go for it on fourth and three at the 37 after timeout. Thrash may have been interfered with, but he still should have caught the pass from Ramsey.
Sack leads to a three and out for Pittsburgh's first series. Roethisberger rolled out on third down but missed on the pass.
Ramsey harried by blitz on second and third downs and Skins go three and out. Need to find a way to slow down the blitz. It looked like they had a nice draw set up to Portis on second and seven, but Coles moved.
From Pittsburgh five, Redskins line up with 4 DL and 4 LB, stop Bettis on first down. They get out of trouble, though, with a 27-yard pass to Randle El. (In case you didn't hear, they decided to make Staley inactive about an hour before game time).
Who are these guys? Chris Clemons makes a sack on third down (he's a linebacker just signed when Barrow went on IR). That was after Boeschetti tackled Bettis on second down. I'd double check the spelling on the latter's name, but he's not listed on the roster in this morning's paper.
Another three and out for Redskins; the familiar old three-yard pass on third and six.
Marcus Washington made a TD-saving tackle at the end of a 60-yard Randle El punt return. The Steelers do muster a field goal to take a 3-0 lead. The way the Redskin offense is playing, that lead could hold up.
Portis is running hard, but he needs to slip a tackle; as aggressive as the Pitt defense is, he could go a long way.
Redskins get initial first down on a pass interference. Following that, Ramsey is sacked and fumbles, but Redskins recover on the last play of the first quarter.
I kind of enjoyed doing the blog "live" during last Sunday's game and, since me enjoying it is the sole criteria for something being done around here, I'm going to do it again. I'll update quarter by quarter or more frequently if events warrant doing so.
The only glitch last week was that the mirror site at http://redskinsblog.blogspot.com was down for much of the first half and I was unable to post there. Hopefully, that won't be an issue this week and all will go smoothly, but it's out of my control. If it does, the quickest and more reliable place to get updates is at the place the Redskins Blog proudly calls home, http://warpathinsiders.com
Rich Tandler is the author of Gut Check, The Complete History of Coach Joe Gibbs’ Washington Redskins. Get details and order at http://GutCheckBook.com
Last week, I went over some of the reasons why some fans thought that the Redskins would be able to win in Philadelphia last Sunday. There are some similar theories floating around out there this week:
Ben Roethlisberger is a rookie and he’s due to have a rookie-type game—While earlier I said that I wasn’t drop-dead impressed with Big Ben, this is more wishful thinking than logical analysis. In fact, one could argue that he had his rookie-type game last week when he took seven sacks, many of them not the fault of his line but of him holding on to the ball for too long, and fumbled once. His 15 for 21 passing for 138 yards looked like a rather efficient 6.6 yards per attempt, if you count in the sacks and the 54 yards lost on them the Steelers gained just 3.0 yards per pass play. Still, Roethlisberger had no interceptions and a similar performance could well be good enough to beat the Redskins.
This is a nothing game for the Steelers—If you’re going to lose a game, and this team isn’t going to go 15-1, the out of conference variety is the best kind to lose because it hurts you the least in the tiebreakers for home field advantage. Certainly, nobody thinks that Pittsburgh will go out and lose on purpose or anything like that, but Bill Cowher may want to pull back on the reigns a bit for this one. Again, this is wishful thinking. The Steelers will be more than ready enough to play.
All that being said, I think that the Redskins do have a chance in this one. The game matches the first- and second-ranked defenses in the NFL. That should equal a low-scoring affair and if that’s the case Washington will always be no more than one play away from being in it or even from winning it.
The question is, where will that big play come from?
Clinton Portis?—Although the Steelers have a tough run defense, Rudi Johnson did have some degree of success against them last week. Portis could bust one, but he’ll need more than the 17 carries he’s had each of the last two games in order to do it.
Patrick Ramsey?—As discussed in this space earlier this week, he’ll need Joe Gibbs to take the shackles off if he’s to make a game-winning play. I think that Gibbs will to some extent, but it’s not like Ramsey will be out there pitchin’ it around much.
Sean Taylor?—He has a pick in each of the past two games and last week he showed some great RAC ability. It’s only a matter of time until the gets one and takes it to the house.
Marcus Washington?—No doubt that it’s in Gregg Williams’ game plan to have Washington spending a lot of time in the Steeler backfield. Perhaps Washington can get the defender’s triple play and sack Roethlisberger, strip the ball away, and score a touchdown.
Out of these four, I’ll pick Taylor to make the big play, but I still don’t think it will be enough. The game will be competitive into the second half but the Steelers will hang on.
When you watch Ola Kimrin, who virtually just gotten off of a plane from Sweden, kick two field goals that provided the game-winning margin in a 13-10 win over the Bears you have to wonder why the Redskins shelled out a $1.6 million signing bonus to John Hall before the 2003 season.
Of course, we got the answer over the course of the next few games as Kimrin couldn't hit consistently from outside of 40 yards. The problem didn't seem to be leg strength as he was rarely short on his longer attempts, but accuracy as they were wide of the mark. His longest field goal was 41 yards.
Kimrin was released yesterday after the team confirmed that Hall's groin pull had healed. As most kickers do, Kimrin took the news well.
I thought he (Hall) would be back after a week so I can't really complain. I would like to have a better percentage, but hopefully I showed something. Maybe I'll get a shot somewhere else.
It's that potential "shot somewhere else" that keeps hope alive for kickers across the nation. Whether he returns to his native Sweden or hangs around stateside, Kimrin undoubtedly will try to get his hands on whatever film there is of his kicking and study his technique to see if he can uncover the flaw that sends his strong kicks off line. He'll have his friends avoiding him as they know he's going to beg them to serve as his holder while he works the kinks out. Given his performance over the past month it's unlikely that his "shot" will come this season, but his agent will be hard at work trying to get him a spot on a training camp roster.
