Rich Tandler's Real Redskins

The Draft--A Different Angle on Tiebreakers

Well, last week it was playoff scenarios. We now go quickly to looking at where the Redskins might draft.

Unlike playoff tiebreakers, which tries to identify factors that indicate that one team with the same record as another was inferior, the draft tiebreakers try to identify the worse of the tied teams. The NFL does that by positioning tied teams in inverse order of their strength of schedule. In other words, the team that played the weaker schedule will get to draft ahead of a team with the same record that had a weaker strength of schedule. Things like head to head and conference or division record have no bearing on deciding draft order

Thanks again to Kevin Mac on WarpathInsiders.com for doing the nitty-gritty work to come up with the following information:

Team Wins SOS* Next week

• 1 SanFran 2 113 Patriots
• 2 Cleveland 3 140 Houston
• 3 Tennessee 4 124 Detroit
• 4 Miami 4 130 Baltimore
• 5 Arizona 5 108 Tampa
• 6 Tampa 5 113 Arizona
• 7 Chicago 5 113 Packers
• 8 Wash 5 115 Vikings
• 9 Giants 5 124 Dallas
• 10 Oakland 5 138 Jags
• 11 Detroit 6 120 Titans
• 12 Dallas 6 121 Giants

Sorry that this doesn't come up very clearly, but the sites that this blog appears on just don't handle tables well. Still, you can see the draft position if the season ended today, the team name, the number of wins it has, the number of combined wins its opponents has (note that this was done before the Monday night game between Philly and the Rams) and its opponent on Sunday.
If the Redskins lose on Sunday, it's possible but unlikely that they will draft third, depending on if Miami and Tennessee both win and how the opponents of the other teams that finish in the five-win pool do. A position in the six hole is more likely.

If Redskins win on Sunday they probably will draft somewhere in the 8 to 10 range as it's unlikely that the SOS for Detroit and Dallas will drop enough to get to be more favorable than that of the Redskins and some other teams will five losses will also win, getting the Redskins into the mix with those teams as well.

No official "root for" list for this game, but I just wanted to make you aware of the situation.

Smoot a Goner?

After months of happy talk about it being a virtual certainty that Fred Smoot would return to the Redskins next year, things suddenly turned gloomy today. From WarpathInsiders.com's ace Redskins reporter John Keim:

Fred Smoot isn't optimistic about returning, even as the Redskins say he should be.

''Just say it's a gut feeling,'' Smoot said. ''A gut feeling.''

When asked if he felt that if there was no deal before season's end, then there'd be no deal at all, Smoot said, ''Yeah, that's how I think.''

Smoot stressed that he wants to return. Coach Joe Gibbs said, ''We really like him. He's a heck of a player and he has a great outlook on things. We'll make every effort to sign him. We were going hard at it and then it reached a point where there was a stalemate. Both sides reached a point where we both said we're better off waiting.''

Perhaps this is the disappointing season and his current injury talking, but there certainly is cause for concern here. Rarely is heard a discouraging word from the mouth of Fred Smoot. If he says that doesn't like the way things are going in the contract negotiations, there must be some serious difference between the two sides.

The guess here is that Smoot and his agent have an inflated estimation of the cornerback's market value. He is a good corner, perhaps a very good one, but he's a cut or two below the elites in the league. If he's looking for more than seven figures in guaranteed money the Redskins are right to draw the line.

This may come down to Smoot testing the market in March. If he gets a crazy offer, he'll go. If not, he'll probably stay for the offer the Redskins have on the table right now.

Nothing New

Dog bites man. The federal budget deficit soars. Dallas beats Washington.

Midway thorough the fourth quarter, it seemed as though 72-point headline news was about to me made. The Redskins were on the verge of beating the Cowboys and a bunch of bad streaks and jinxes were on the verge of vanishing. The 1-13 against Dallas, Gibbs 0-7 vs. Parcells, the Redskins not having won this year without Clinton Portis rushing for 100 yards or turning the ball over more than once or having trailed at any point during a game.

If you want to see the difference between even Joe Gibbs’ most mediocre teams in his first go-around here, you need look no further than here: Starting with 5:26 left to play, three times the Redskins had their hands on the ball with a chance to salt a four-point lead away. One time Antonio Brown fumbled a punt away. The other two times they went three and out.

Without looking it up, I’d venture to say that in the 184 regular-season games that Gibbs coached from 1981 through 1992 and in the 21 playoff games in that time span, they never had three chances to put a win away and failed to do so. I’d do the research, but I’m so sure that I’ll challenge anyone out there to prove me wrong. Certainly on some occasions they blew one offensive chance to protect a lead of more than a field goal with less than five and a half minutes to play. Maybe a handful of times they had two chances to finish off a team and couldn’t do it. But three, never.

<>You can only ask a defense, even a very good one, to get it done so many times.

Mitchell Rants

Brian Mitchell went off on Sean Taylor and Clinton Portis on Comcast Sports Net’s post game show.

Here is his central rant transcribed:

Players. . .we look and we see things. We’d try something and the coach would say ‘don’t do that’. And then the other guys do it and you let them go and then you say they’re showing favoritism. That begins to separate a football team. . .I played the game and I know how it is.

I guarantee you there are players on this team that see those guys doing their own thing and nobody is saying anything about it. I talk to a lot of people and I know things and there are people who are sick and tired of it. But they can’t say anything because people who tell them don’t say anything.

The fact is. . .I started here as a Redskin. . .When I played here we busted our butts, we had a lot of tradition and we cared about what we did. . . I’m not going to sit here and let two people come in and think that they’re going to change the whole framework of this organization.

Coach Gibbs, when I was late for a practice in 1991, he told me ‘get you a new alarm clock, you have to do things right--you’re a man now—or you’re going to be going home.’ He had that type of firmness with me and he made me a better player. He needs to the same thing with Clinton Portis and Sean Taylor. They’re not bigger than the team.

The same thing you would preach over and over again to Art Monk and all of us, that no player on that team was bigger than any other. The same thing needs to be said to these guys, or somebody on the team like myself needs to get in their faces and tell them, you’re not bigger than the team, you’re never going to be bigger than the team.

Until you do that, you’re going to have losing seasons and losing games with guys running this team who shouldn’t be.

The Blog intends to ask around to get the impressions of others close to the team on this matter. Stay tuned.

Reminder--Today ' s " Root For " List

As a reminder, here is what has to happen for the Redskins to be in a position to wrap up a playoff spot with a win next week against Minnesota. (Thanks again to Kevin Mac):

Skins beat Dallas (4:15pm)
+ Tampa over Carolina (4:15pm)
+ Atlanta over New Orleans (1pm)
+ Cincy over G-men (1pm)
+ Philly over St Louis (Monday)

And two combinations of a pair of teams winning are the only thing that will eliminate the Redskins (besides, of course, a loss to Dallas)

Wins by both Carolina and Tampa

OR

Wins by both St. Louis and Seattle (vs. Arizona 4:15 Eastern)

Redskins vs. Cowboys Bold Predictions

You can reach me by email at rtandler@comcast.net

Rich Tandler is the author of Gut Check, The Complete History of Coach Joe Gibbs’ Washington Redskins.

This game is a pivotal moment for the Washington Redskins, for two reasons.

First, the Redskins need to continue to win against the mass of mediocrity in the NFL and the Cowboys are firmly in that group. A team can do quite well winning the games it should win and Washington needs to establish itself as one that does that with regularity.

The second reason revolves around the numbers .176 and .071. Those represent the Redskins winning percentage in the division in the last three years and against the Cowboys in their last 14 meetings. Certainly, the latter is a major factor in the former. The Redskins have to prove that they can beat the Cowboys if they are to become the team that they and their fans expect them to be. If you start off your season by penciling in two losses to a division rival, especially one that often is on or below your level, you’re in a serious hole.

This one seems simple. Both teams are 5-9 but seem to headed in very different directions. The Redskins are dead set on finishing their season on a high note. They have a lot of the pieces for 2005 in place already and want to build some momentum and energy for next year. Their playoff hopes are slim, but that is keeping them motivated as well.

Dallas has even longer odds of making the postseason and they aren’t using that as any kind of motivation. They don’t quite know who among them will be around for 2005 as many positions, especially quarterback, are in various states between flux and turmoil. Bill Parcells have spent the virtually the whole season telling his team how dumb they are and how poorly they are playing. It appears that they are beginning to believe him.

In the Fort-Worth Star Telegram, columnist Randy Galloway sums up the differences between the two teams quite nicely:

The Gibbs bashing will come to a sudden end next season.

While both he and Parcells share blame at the moment for their teams' miserable years, the NFL of today is all about sudden turnarounds.

Depending on Ramsey, the Redskins have the people in place to totally flip things next season.

This can be a good team in '05. Real good.

And Gibbs is now giving his young quarterback the learning room.

Of course, that optimism for the future is the fork in the road when it comes to the current plight of Gibbs and Parcells.

What exactly is the Cowboys' future?

What about the defense? What about the quarterback?

The best guess six months ago was that Parcells was loading up for '05, and using this season to identify his key pieces and needs.

If that was actually the case, we now know the needs far outweigh the pieces.
Both stellar coaches today at Texas Stadium have a 5-9 record.

But there's a difference; a big difference.

So, it’s an easy Redskins win, right? Not so fast. Among those 13 losses in the last 14 games were quite a few where Washington seemed to have the upper hand. In 1999, the Redskins took the NFC East title despite two losses to an 8-8 Dallas team. In 2001, the Redskins were streaking, having won their last five and the Cowboys were reeling. At FedEx Field, it was Dallas 20, Washington 14. I’m sure it’s not necessary to go through the whole litany, you get the idea.
It’s just very difficult to get a feeling for one of these games because things rarely unfold as think they will, or even as it appears they will as the game progresses. That goes back to Clint Longley and ’79 in Texas Stadium. But here’s a stab at it.

• One of the pieces of the puzzle that the Cowboys know will be in place next year is rookie running back Julius Jones, who has been impressive after returning from a shoulder injury four games ago. He had three straight 100-yard performances before being held to 80 against the Eagles last week. Look for him to get about half that against the Redskins defense, the best in the NFC against the run.
• The last time the two teams met, Vinny Testaverde was a hot quarterback. Now he’s contemplating retirement. He passed for 214 yards in the first meeting this year. To give you an indication as to how unimpressive a performance that was, Mark Brunell passed for 111 yards more than that. Still, he was the winning quarterback that Monday night and he is always dangerous. He’ll get his couple of hundred passing but I think he’ll face a bit more pressure and will take a couple of sacks and throw an interception or two.
• Patrick Ramsey will continue to progress as he looks to being the unquestioned starter from the first minicamp of 2005. Pencil him in for an efficient but not spectacular performance, say a QB rating of 95.
• Clinton Portis needs 217 yards to become the first NFL player ever to rush for 1,500 yards or more in each of his first three seasons and 148 to become the team’s single-season record holder for rushing yards in a season. He’ll get about halfway to the first record and will be on the doorstep on the second one when this game is over.

As has been the case all year, the defense will take care of business. The offense will get enough done to win:

Redskins 24, Cowboys 14

Yes, I know I said earlier this year that I wouldn’t pick the Redskins to beat the Cowboys until they actually did it. But that was my own rule and I’m entitled to break it!

Defense Could be #1

The Redskins’ defense has virtually locked up the #1 ranking in the NFC and has a good shot at being first in the entire league.

 

Through 14 games, the Redskins have allowed 3,655 yards. In second in the conference is Tampa Bay, which has given up 3,981. That’s a difference of 326 yards. For the Bucs to catch the Redskins, they would have to hold their opponents in the last two games, Carolina and Arizona, to 163 yards per game less than the Redskins do. That’s a tall order.

 

Pittsburgh holds the NFL lead at 3,619 yards, an advantage of just 36 yards or 18 yards per each of their remaining games. The Steelers play Baltimore and Buffalo. This is so tight that it could hinge on a meaningless draw play in garbage time.

 

The fact that it might happen at all, however, is nothing short of amazing considering the turmoil and injuries that the unit has faced this year.

 

Blache On The Move?

There has been a lot of chatter about the possibility of Gregg Williams leaving for another head coaching job after guiding the Redskins to the #1 defensive ranking in the NFC. Williams has said that he's going nowhere. Another valuable member of the defensive coaching staff, Greg Blache, might be a candidate to take a head coaching job himself. Blache has the title of defensive coordinator (Williams is the Assistant Head Coach--Defense) and his prime area of focus is the defensive line. After he nearly was hired in San Francisco two years ago, he could get some looks for the half dozen or so head coaching vacancies that will occur around the league.

According to an article in Friday's Post, it would take quite a bit for Blache to leave:

Blache said this week he is pleased with his situation in Washington and would only leave for an enticing head coaching job.

'All young guys would like to marry a supermodel,' said Blache, a defensive line coach for 11 seasons, six with the Green Bay Packers, then five with the Indianapolis Colts before joining Chicago. 'Half of 'em would drive you crazy and drive you to drink. As you get older, you learn to realize what you're supposed to like and what's best for you is not always equal.'

Daly: Redskins one of Least Exciting Teams Ever

In his Sunday Column Dan Daly examines the premise that the Redskins might be one of the least exciting teams ever:

• Nothing much seems to happen in Redskins games. Ever notice that? Joe Gibbs' offense doesn't score a lot, and Gregg Williams' defense doesn't give up a lot. In fact, only 443 points have been scored, total, in their first 14 games -- an average of 31.6 (or about 10 below the league norm).

Daly checked back to 1978, when a round of major rules changes that helped scoring went into effect, to see which teams had averaged the fewest total points scored and given up per game. Here is his top (or bottom) ten:

(Note: PF = Points For; PA = Points Against; PerG = Points Per Game.)
Yr. Team PF PA PerG

• '93 Bears 234 230 29.0
• '78 Broncos 282 198 30.0
• '82 Seahawks* 127 147 30.4
• '00 Ravens 333 165 31.1
• '79 Chiefs 238 262 31.3
• '78 Bucs 241 259 31.3
• '94 Cardinals 235 267 31.4
• '99 Bucs 270 235 31.6
• '98 Eagles 161 344 31.6
• '04 Redskins 209 234 31.6

* Nine-game strike season

This is not necessarily to be interpreted as a swipe at the Redskins. Daly is careful to note:

"Least Exciting," by the way, doesn't necessarily mean bad. The '00 Ravens, after all, won the Super Bowl, and four other teams on the list made the playoffs.

Inspiration

OK, one last "you heard it here first". Following the lead set here yesterday afternoon, the Redskins players were almost as annoyed about their Pro Bowl snubs as the blog was:

Washington Named To Pro Bowl Team (washingtonpost.com):

Most Redskins players couched their disappointment, but the team's cornerback duo was blunt. 'I was robbed by someone without a mask,' Smoot said, his voice tinged with disappointment. 'Quote me.'

Springs, who is tied for the team high with four interceptions, declared, 'I played better than any cornerback in the league this season.'

OK, just kidding about the "here first" thing.

There is talk out there that this will lead to the Redskins' defense playing very inspired football on Sunday. In the same article, Marcus Washington, the only Redskin to make the Pro Bowl, said:

"Guys that walk around not with chips on their shoulders, but with blocks on their shoulders. I think they're definitely going to take it personal. They're definitely going to raise their game to an even higher level."

Washington's comments aside, I've never been much of a believer in things like this inspiring players to significantly better play. If the fact that a man is getting paid anywhere from hundreds of thousands to tens of millions dollars a year to play in an event that happens just 16 times a year doesn't motivate him to do his absolute best every week isn't inspration enough, well, he can't be motivated. On top of that, if a player gets too jacked up on anger over a perceived slight, it could work to his disadvantage, particularly on defense. He could go for the Sports Center highlight big hit at the expense of his assignment.

Still, football is a game of emotion. If the snub helps Cornelius Griffin, Smoot, and Springs focus better and be a half a step faster it could be a slight advantage in the game against the Cowboys. That might help the Skins get ahead early and the emotions could snowball and things could keep going in the Redskins' favor.

Regardless, I don't imagine that if the game is close in the waning minutes Smoot will be lining up to cover Keyshwan Johnson and thinking "Man, I'm going to blanket him because I was snubbed for the Pro Bowl." Smoot will try to cover Johnson like a blanket because it's his job and it will help his team win.