Rich Tandler's Real Redskins

GameBlog--Fourth Quarter

Fourth Quarter

Misdirection: The Redskins haven’t run a single play to try to make the Giants pay for being aggressive. Maybe something has to work for you to base the misdirection off of and nothing has worked for the Redskins all day. Regardless, at some point when the game is still somewhat in doubt it might have helped.

Triple play: Three drops today for Robert Royal, the last of which apparently cost the Redskins a touchdown. Feel free to hold on to one, Robert. It pretty well sums up the Redskins’ day.

Way off: I’ve certainly been wrong in my predictions before and I’m sure that I will be again. But rarely have I been so wrong, my call being a 31-14 Redskins win. I did expect the Giants offense to move the ball some and I even said that Tiki Barber might pop a long one or two. Of course, I didn’t expect both of them to be in the first quarter before the Redskins had so much as a first down. Eli Manning played pretty well, but he wasn’t the reason the Giants won so convincingly.

The unit that I wrongly gave no credit to was the Giants defense. The Washington offense could get nothing going at all. When the game was anywhere near in doubt, the Redskins did not take a snap past their own 42 and they mustered just 10 yards rushing. That’s being owned.

Make no mistake about it, this was a case of good defense, not necessarily bad offense. I don’t think that Pierce or Hasselbeck tipped them off or anything, this was just a case of the Washington offense being physically beaten on the line and in the defensive backfield. When Brunell did have time to throw, which wasn’t often, he had nobody to throw to. I severely underestimated that unit.

Did I miss on the Mara factor? Perhaps, but it’s hard to believe that an owner’s death is worth 36 points.

Regroup: The good thing is that the Skins are still just a game out of first place near the midway point of the season. We’ve seen that there is not necessarily any positive carryover from week to week. Perhaps there won’t be any negative carryover from this game to next Sunday night.

History? I’m sure that someone will come up with this for sure, but I would have to doubt that any NFL team has ever scored 50 points in one game only to be shut out the next.

GameBlog--Third Quarter

Third Quarter

Microscopic: Well, I said before the game that they might have to reinvent the quarterback rating system for Mark Brunell after this one. I was right, but in the wrong direction. At halftime his rating sits at a punt 19.3. Ever hear of no place to go but up?

Powerless: The Redskins had to know that they were going to hand it to Barber on first and 20 and that Shockey would be the main target on first and goal at the 10. Yet they were powerless to stop it, mere spectators. This defense hasn’t played this poorly, ever.

Bouncing the right way: Our old friend Chad Morton coughs it up on a punt return and it bounces right back to him. The Redskins can’t make a break and they can’t get one. They’re really run into a buzz saw today in every way.

Not sure: I don’t quite understand why the Giants are exposing Eli Manning to getting hit with a 26-0 lead, a running game that’s on a roll, and a Washington offense that’s dead in the water. Keep him in the game, sure, but don’t have him dropping back to pass two times in three downs.

Foreign territory: The Redskins take their initial snap in Giants territory on the last snap of the third quarter. Total domination.

GameBlog Second Quarter

Second Quarter

Eventually: The Giants were going to get a touchdown. The offense just has to get something going and they probably will. Still, you have to play under control and not let Barber bust those big runs. They get the pass rush going and then, boom, they’re getting burned on the long run again.

To the max: It looks like Gibbs is going back to some max protect schemes to let Brunell get into some sort of a rhythm. It worked on the pass to Moss for their initial first down.

Streak over: Feeley finally missed a FG for the first time this year, good starting field position for the Redskins. Need to take advantage of it.

Not yet: But at 16-0 this one is dangerously close to being over. All the Redskins have to hang their hats on is the fact that they’ve been totally dominated and it’s “only” 16-0. Still, we have to see a pulse in the offense.

The worst: This is the worst game that Chris Samuels has had in, gosh, two weeks since Allen of Kansas City beat him like the proverbial rented mule. When he’s not getting beaten, he’s holding. The Redskins are in need of some serious halftime adjustments.

Body bags? It’s starting to look like it, folks. Clearly their worst 30 minutes of football this year.

GameBlog First Quarter

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First Quarter

Rough start: It seemed like the Redskins were the ones that were too charged up on the first play. Sean Taylor took a bad angle and got caught inside on Barber’s long run.

Aggression pays off: Sending the Giants backwards after they got a first and goal was, obviously, huge. Once again, though, the ball was on the ground and the Redskins didn’t get it.

Jittery: A skittish start by the Redskin offense with a rare three and out. A dropped pass and a high pass, possibly a throwaway by Brunell, not the way to make a statement on the road.

Ineffective: After that initial sack, the Giants have been doing a great job of picking up the blitz. Manning has bee able to stand in and throw against a secondary without too many players in it. They’ve adjusted, now Gregg Williams will have to.

Danger zone: They’ve withstood New York’s initial offense burst giving up only three points. Now they have to be careful offensively, especially after the holding call on Samuels.

Dumb: Sean Taylor, dumb penalty. It cost the Redskins three points.

Take it: Still, with the Giants having the ball for 24 plays and about 12 minutes, you can’t be real upset at a 6-0 game.

GameBlog Pregame Redskins vs. Giants

Among the push back received here in response to the (Truly) Bold Prediction piece forecasting an easy Redskin win was, not so fast, the Giants “create a lot of turnovers”. On the face of it, that’s true. They lead the NFC with 19 takeaways, getting nine interceptions and 10 fumbles. Let’s take a closer look, however, and see just how significant these numbers are.

Of the nine interceptions the Giants have, six have come off of the arms of Aaron Brooks and Mark Bulger (three each). Among qualifying passers in the NFL Brooks is 30th in the NFL with nine picks thrown on the season, Bulger is 25th with eight. To be sure, their performances against the Giants did contribute to their high numbers of interceptions, but the Giants have been far from along in receiving the largesse of Mr. Bulger and Mr. Brooks.

Their other three interceptions came off of Kurt Warner, Josh McCown, and Drew Bledsoe. Warner is not among the qualifiers as he has been out hurt much of the year. McCown and Bledsoe has each thrown six INT’s on the year. Those are not turnover ATM performances like Brooks and Bulger have put on, but 14 qualifying QB’s have thrown fewer.
One of those is Mark Brunell, who has a total of two interceptions this year, none in the past three games. If the Giants are hoping to make a living off of interceptions, they should reconsider their plans.

Of the 10 fumbles they have recovered, half came against New Orleans (3) and St. Louis (2). They rank 1-2 in number of lost fumbles in the NFC on the season.
To the Giants’ credit, three more of their recoveries of opponents’ fumbles came against Dallas and that’s pretty impressive since that represents half of the Cowboys’ total of lost fumbles for the season.

Washington has coughed it up seven times this year, putting them about in the middle of the NFC pack when it comes to fumbles lost.

Certainly, you always have to protect that ball when it’s in your arms, but that will be doubly important this week. It will be extremely difficult for the Giants to stay close to the Redskins if Washington doesn’t put the ball on the ground.

Mike Sellers

For a number of years, my impression of this guy was that he was not the core Redskin type, certainly not as would be defined by Joe Gibbs. It started when he bolted for Cleveland after the Redskins gave him a shot after went to Walla Walla Community College and then the Canadian Football League. He then proceeded to badmouth the organization and get busted for cocaine possession. That cost him his job with the Browns, even though the charges were later dropped. I was much less than thrilled when the Redskins brought him back prior to the 2004 season and my lack of enthusiasm seemed justified as he drew a number of personal foul penalties. One of my first thoughts going into the offseason was that they’ve got to get rid of this thug.

Then along comes the ’05 season and all of a sudden the guy is catching touchdown passes and hasn’t even so much as glared at an opponent after the whistle. After last week’s game I went and talked to him in the locker room and he’s a sharp, engaging guy. And the I hear Gibbs talking about him saying that when the team needed someone to play running back in practice last week, Sellers jumped right in there and did the chore with great enthusiasm.

Then it occurred to me. Whether it’s Mark Brunell at the glamour position or Mike Sellers as a special teams/blocking grunt, we should just believe—make that just know—that Joe Gibbs knows who should be on this team and who should be playing much better than any of us do. (image placeholder)(image placeholder)

(Truly) Bold Predictions: Redskins Will Win Big

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I have to apologize for I have misled you, the loyal readers here. Prior to each of the six Redskins games this year, I have written a prediction as to how I thought the upcoming game would go and give my thoughts on what the final score might be. I have labeled these pieces “Bold Predictions”.

Looking back, though, most of the predictions have been anything but bold. I’ve added qualifiers (if Jake Plummer turns it over), caveats (unless the Chiefs turn some big plays) and other rather wimpy elements. I wanted to pick the Redskins to hang a big number on the 49ers but I chickened out and went with a comfortable but not dominant victory. Far from bold, as advertised, my predictions have been lame, milquetoast, bland predictions, not even worthy of capitalizing.

It stops this week, here and now.

The Washington Redskins will beat the New York Giants on Sunday and they will beat them easily.

It’s not that the Giants aren’t a quality football team. They are. But the Redskins are better. Much better. Mark Brunell is playing better than any quarterback in the league right now. Much better than Eli Manning, which is enough for this Sunday.

In fact, of the 22 starting positions, based how they’re playing right now, most coaches in the NFL would pick many more Redskins than Giants to start for their teams. Three of the four DL positions and MLB would go to the Giants on defense and on the other side of the ball, Giants would start at one WR spot, TE, and that’s it. OK, I’ll take a push in Tiki vs. Portis but only a push. That makes the tally 15 Redskins, six Giants and one draw. That’s not a slight edge for the Redskins, it’s a landslide. Again, they’re just a better team.

Certainly the game is not about Barber vs. Portis or Eli vs. Brunell, it’s about matchups, offense vs. defense, blockers vs. the front four, receivers vs. cornerbacks. Did someone say Santana Moss against Will Allen or Curtis Deloatch? The East Rutherford fire department had better be on alert all day long as these guys are going to get torched repeatedly.

In fact, I’ve seen no rational explanation as to how anyone of the Giants defense is going to stop anyone on the Redskins offense. In terms of yards allowed, they’re last in the entire NFL. That doesn’t make them the worst necessarily, but they’re not very good.

The last time that they faced a QB-RB combo of the quality of Brunell and Portis was in San Diego in Week 3. Tomlinson ran over them for 192 yards and Drew Breese was 19-22-191, a quarterback rating of 133.1. San Diego drove 65, 85, and 82 yards to touchdowns the first three times it had the ball. They added TD drives of 70 and 77 yards later on.

To be sure, LT is a better back than Portis, who should hang up a mere buck fifty. As for Brunell, they may have to reinvent the QB rating scale.

On the other side of the ball, New York won’t be enjoying one of the advantages that they have over most of the teams that they play. Jeremy Shockey presents a matchup problem for a lot of secondaries. Not so against the Redskins as they have Sean Taylor, who possesses linebacker size and DB speed. Shockey will be neutralized.

Barber might pop a long run, the Washington defense’s bugaboo this year. Manning will make some plays, but not enough of them to overcome the hole that his team’s defense will leave them in.

Finally, let’s dispense with two of the supposed intangible advantages that the Giants. The first is that they want to win the game in honor of team patriarch Wellington Mara, giving them “extra” incentive as if first place in the division near the midway point of the season isn’t incentive enough. Two words—The Triplets. Remember how the induction of Smith, Aikman, and Irvin into the Dallas Hall of Rings, or whatever it is, was supposed to have the Cowboys so sky high that they were supposed to smash the Redskins. How did that work out, Roy Williams? In fact, the desire to win one for Mara may work against them. They may be too pumped up and play out of control and wear out by the third quarter.  

As far as Antonio Pierce knowing the Redskins defense, so what? Gregg Williams knows Pierce pretty well. You don’t think that he and Dale Lindsey spent a little time down the hall with the offensive coaches detailing to them Pierce’s weak points?

The Redskins are getting on a roll. You can say that putting up 52 points against an inferior opponent is just an isolated, one-week occurrence, but the record says otherwise. In Gibbs first run here, the Redskins put up 40 or more points 17 times. Their record after those games was a stellar 14-3. In fact, the last time they put up over 50 points, against Atlanta in 1991, they went on the road to Pittsburgh and scored 41 on the Steelers.

The Giants will come out playing hard, but by halftime the Redskins superiority will become apparent. It may not be over enough by the time the fourth quarter comes around to empty the bench like they did last week, but be assured that it will indeed be over.

Redskins 31, Giants 14

Why Not the Redskins?

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There’s a new eBay commercial asking, “What is ‘it’”?  In this ad campaign, “it” is anything and everything. In the NFL when the calendars are about to turn to November, “it” takes on a different meaning. “It” isn’t something that put your finger on, but you know “it” when you see “it”.

What is “it”? “It” is the talent, the swagger, the moxie, the smart, the guts and whatever else it takes to successfully navigate the road to the Super Bowl.

Do the Redskins have “it”? Before the season started, even those with the burgundy and gold glasses permanently perched on their noses would have been hard pressed to make a case for the Redskins, 6-10 in 2004, going to the Super Bowl XL. In September, they were a year or two away at best, primarily because the offense was a mess and the Eagles were the dominant force in the division. Saying that they had an outside shot at a wild-card playoff spot was considered to be a bold statement, anything beyond that was a mix of wishful thinking, fantasy, and lunacy.

Of course, similar things were said of the Carolina Panthers in early 2003. And the 2001 Patriots, the 2000 Ravens and the 1999 Rams and Titans had the same slim to none chance of making it to the title game as the Redskins were given in August. Somewhere along the line, however, they all got “it”. At some point during the season, the players started to seriously think, why not us? The teams’ home cities went nuts, the fans gripped onto the team with a fevered frenzy. Team apparel both flew off the store shelves and emerged from years of sitting in the closet. The national media started to talk and write as if they knew it all along, that they told everyone (off the air, of course) that this was their sleeper pick.

It’s too early in the 2005 season to say that the Redskins have what the Panthers, Rams, and the others had in their magical seasons. But it’s not so early that we can’t take a look at some of the elements of “it” that the Redskins have going for themselves this year.

Coaching: Joe Gibbs has “it” or, rather, them--three Lombardi Trophies. Any questions?

Quarterback play: Mark Brunell isn’t playing as well as he did when he twice took a team to the doorstep of the Super Bowl. He’s playing better. For the first time in his career he has thrown for three touchdowns in back to back seasons. His QB rating and TD to interception ratio are both much better than it was in 1996 and in 1999, the two seasons he took the Jaguars to the AFC title game. He’s a savvy veteran with a very hot hand, a priceless asset.

Playmakers: Santana Moss can take it to the house any time he gets his hands on the ball and he has. We just discussed Mark Brunell, who makes most of his big plays with his arm, but has made a few with his feet as well. Sean Taylor makes crunching hits to separate offensive players from the ball with great frequency and he nearly scored on his first interception of the season. Marcus Washington’s season started to turn the corner from solid to spectacular when he got the sack and strip of Alex Smith on Sunday. They’re the players that the others can turn to when the team needs a spark. And those are just the ones who have demonstrated playmaking ability this season, leaving out players who have turned the big play in the past like LaVar Arrington, Clinton Portis, and David Patten. If they start to add a big spark here and there, watch out.

No glaring weakness: The Redskins don’t excel in all phases of the game, but there is no one area that the other team can point to and say, that’s where we’re going to go to beat them. The presence of Moss and Patten precludes overplaying the run and Portis makes it a bad idea to play too soft in the box. Even Mike Sellers can make a team pay for turning its head the other way. The offensive line is gelling to the point where they might actually earn a nickname. The defense can get burned for the long play on occasion but it’s solid against both the run and against the pass. The kicking game is not spectacular but solid and you’d be hard-pressed to find a hole in any phase of the game planning.

Battle all the way: The teams that have “it” don’t win every game, but they’re in almost every one until the end. This desire and ability to battle to the end results in some close losses and, as we saw in Dallas, some magical wins.

Again, it’s early; we’re not even halfway through the season. But in a just few weeks, we’re going to look up and Thanksgiving will be approaching and the pack will be starting to separate. Some of those pulling out in front will be the usual suspects and others will be surprises.

Why not the Redskins?

Skins-Niners GameBlog--Final

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Fourth Quarter

Ramsey coming in: Do they let him throw the ball? They didn’t throw at all their last possession. It would be kind of a shame to give Ramsey some extended playing time and have him do nothing but hand off. BTW, Brunell’s QB rating for the game is a sizzling 147.9

Portis done, too: He’s on the sidelines with the hat on, the traditional garb for the great performer taking the rest of the day off.

Come to think of it: They may not need to throw. Betts is tearing off huge chunks of yardage and Rock Cartwright just got Washington’s fourth rushing TD of the day and of the season. While it would be good to knock a little rust off of Ramsey, you almost have to take a touchdown if they’re going to give it to you.

The bench empties: They’re putting in defensive replacements as well; Omar Stoutmire, Matt Bowen, Nic Clemons seeing his first real NFL action.

Twice: Alex Smith has lost his grip in the starting portion of his throwing motion not once, but twice today. It’s Football Follies, Live at FedEx Field.

Getting the job done: The Redskins are doing what good teams need to do. They’re taking care of business at home and they are about to complete a rout of a decidedly weaker opponent.

Skins-Niners GameBlog--Third Quarter

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Third Quarter

Promotion: Arrington is now in with the first-down package, which I guess makes you a starter, sort of.

Big-time players making big-time plays: The Redskins’ money players are making the plays in this game. M. Washington the sack and strip, Portis with the three TD’s, the last of which was set up by a Sean Taylor interception, Moss setting up one score with a long reception and scores another. That’s what you need to see.

Random thought: After this game, is Joe Gibbs going to have to say, “Hey, it’s not my job to stop the Redskins from scoring.”?

Might want to make an addition: Add LaVar Arrington to the “big-time” list. He has two tackles for losses and another play where he did his heat-seeking missile routine on Smith that missed being his first sack of the year by a yard.

Half a hundred: The Redskins haven’t hung 50 on anyone since they did it to the Giants in the Meadowlands in 1999. The last time they did it at home was in 1991 when the laid some wood to the Falcons by 56-17. They’ll practically have to fall on the ball each lay and have San Francisco do the same to keep from scoring 50.

Joe Gibbs, Don ' t Read This: Bold Predictions

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Anyone see Joe Gibbs around? No? Is the coast clear? You sure? Because I don’t want to get laid in to by Gibbs like the five writers who penned what I’m about to say.

The Redskins not only should beat the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, they should beat them easily.

First, let’s get the obligatory disclaimers out of the way. This is not Texas vs. Prairie View. On any given Sunday and all that. The Niners not the worst team in NFL history and the Redskins are not by any stretch of the imagination a powerhouse at this point in time. It wouldn’t be the greatest upset in NFL history if San Francisco were to emerge victorious in this one.

Still, it’s very difficult to imagine how the Redskins could lose on Sunday. To begin with, they aren’t taking the 49ers lightly. Their coach won’t let them and, besides that, any team that has lost two in a row isn’t going to be looking past anyone. The assumption going in is that both teams are focused and giving it 100%.

San Francisco’s starting quarterback is Alex Smith, the first pick overall in this year’s draft. In their last game, he got his first start and registered a quarterback rating of 8. That’s not a typo, that’s a single-digit rating. His performance, 9-24, 4 INT, 0 TD, made a Mark Brunell circa early 2004 performance look positively Manning-like. And the game was against Arizona, not quite a juggernaut defense. He could well turn out to be a good quarterback, but in a few years, not on Sunday.

Make no mistake; coach Mike Nolan is committed to Smith. Tim Rattay, who began the season as the starter and was the only QB on the roster who has demonstrated any ability to play the position competently, was traded to Miami earlier this week. That means Plan B is Ken Dorsey, who really isn’t a plan at all.

It’s not as though whoever the quarterback is has a stud running back to tote the rock. Kevan Barlow has 265 yards in five games and Frank Gore has 108. As a team, they have an even 300 yards rushing. That’s a pace that would net the team as a whole less than 1,000 yards for the season combined.

All this has added up to a grand total of six offensive touchdowns for San Francisco (they have three more on returns). They’ve had the ball an average of 24 minutes a game, meaning that through five contests, the 49er offense has taken nearly a whole game off.

Now, it’s not as though the Redskins have been world-beaters. A bad break here and there and their record is the same 1-4 as the Niners sport.

The difference is, of course, that a good break here and there and the Redskins are 5-0. A leprechaun with a horseshoe imprinted with 7’s draped around its neck strolling on the sidelines couldn’t have conjured up enough good luck to give the 49ers a winning record.

Again at the risk of drawing the wrath of Coach Gibbs, this game is not a question of if, but by how much. Do the Redskins get on a roll and hang up a high number on San Fran or do they win by something closer to the 11-point spread?

That depends on the major sore spot for the Redskins this year, turnovers and the lack of takeaways. They could survive another 0-3 ratio this week and win, although the game would still be in some doubt into the late going. If they have a plus turnover ratio and/or return an interception of fumble for a score, the parking lots at FedEx will be empty early as thousands listen to the end of the Redskins rout on their radios on their way home.

You can figure out which I think will happen:

Redskins 35, 49ers 10