Rich Tandler's Real Redskins

Bold Predictions Redskins vs. Eagles

Let’s first dispense with this “on any given Sunday” stuff. It is true that any NFL team is capable of beating any other NFL team “on any given Sunday”.

A wounded Eagles team could win against the rolling Washington Redskins on Sunday. I could also have dinner with the Pope next Friday night. Democrats and Republicans in Washington could put partisan politics aside for the good of the country. Len Pasquarelli, in theory, could write an article that takes a fair and balanced view of the Redskins.

The chances of the Redskins dropping this one are somewhere in between me breaking bread in the Vatican (what would I wear?) and Nancy Pelosi and Bill Frist leading a group hug on the steps of the Capitol.

OK, all kidding aside, there is a way that the Redskins could lose this game. It could be the Oakland game again. The Redskins get a quick, easy score in the early going and expect the Eagles to quit after such a punch in the mouth. They let the Eagles hang around and all of a sudden they look up and David Akers is kicking a 42-yard field goal as time runs out to beat them.

Given all of that, if these teams played this game 10 times the Redskins would win nine of them. I’ll take the 90% chance.

Still, folks out there in Redskins Nation are finding reasons to be nervous. Some out there are petrified that the Skins won’t win—make that can’t win—because they have never, no, not ever, never swept the Eagles and Cowboys in the same season. While I’m not exactly sure what the battles among Sonny Jurgensen, Norm Snead and Don Meredith back in the ‘60’s have to do with anything, here’s one reassuring fact:

The Redskins have swept the Eagles 20 times since 1936.

Again, what Eddie LeBaron vs. Norv Van Brocklin duels in the snow at Franklin Field and Griffith Stadium has to do with anything, I’m not sure. But perhaps this will offer some comfort to those who believe that such things have relevance.

I’ve also heard that the Eagles are well coached and will give you a battle. If they’re so well coached, why is it that the Eagles have racked up more than 100 yards in penalties in each of their last three games and have been flagged for 90 or more penalty yards in five of their last seven games. (Last season, on their way to the Super Bowl, the Eagles had just one 100-yard penalty game and two 90-yard games.) And I didn’t see much fight in them the last time they were on Monday night football. I think the Seahawks just returned another interception for a touchdown.

Certainly, one stat and one game don’t tell the whole story. For the sake of the argument, I’ll concede that Philly is well coached and will put up a fight. It won’t matter because they have no weapons. The Eagles are taking a knife into a gunfight. With Mike McMahon at quarterback, Ryan Moats at running back and nobody at wide receiver they aren’t going to be able to move the ball against the Redskins defense. Despite the urging of Andy Reid and company, this bunch won’t be able to put up double-digit points if they can score at all.

(On a side note here, the Eagles are quite proud of being about $12 million under the 2005 salary cap. When you’re winning, that’s smart cap management. When you’re losing such practices expose a lack of depth. Twelve million can buy a lot of backup offensive linemen, perhaps another quality receiver or two. Instead of putting the money on the field, owner Robert Lurie has chosen to put it in his pocket)

In terms of yards allowed, the Eagles are 27th in the league and that is the healthy side of the ball for them. Last year all four members of their secondary went to the Pro Bowl; none will be making a return trip. They may be good enough to take away Santana Moss or Chris Cooley or Clinton Portis. But if they stop one, the other two will kill them. Who knows, Taylor Jacobs might even come up with a big catch. Washington will get a couple of takeaways as well and all of this will add up to four or five touchdowns scored.

Don’t worry, you'll be happy.

Redskins 31, Eagles 3

Come On In The Water ' s Warm

You can reach Rich Tandler by email at WarpathInsiders@comcast.net
The Redskins pool has not had many swimmers take a dip in its Burgundy and Gold colored waters this year. That is, until lately. Now all sorts of folks are diving in, many of them head first.

Articles detailing how and why the Redskins will not only make the playoffs but make some noise when they get there are popping up like dandelions on your lawn in the spring. This one comes from Adam Schein on FoxSports.com:

Now the Redskins are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, and a game away from making the tournament.

And a game away from being a team nobody wants to face in the postseason.
......................
The current formula is too strong; a game changing defense, fantastic coaching, a strong running attack, and a super confident bunch.

A formula made for success in the playoffs.

And to think I criticized Joe Theisman for drinking the Redskins Kool-Aid in the preseason, talking about Washington as a Super Bowl team.

Shame on me. Hail to the Redskins.

And then there's this one, Jason Whitlock's 10 NFL Truths column on ESPN.com:

8. Of all the teams in the NFC, the Washington Redskins are the only team capable of winning the Super Bowl.

After being down on Joe Gibbs early in the season, I have to credit him for getting things together. If the Skins knock off the Eagles, they will enter the playoffs as the hottest team in the league -- hotter than the streaking Patriots, also winners of four straight.
..............................
7. OK, while I'm on the subject, let me rank the NFC Super Bowl hopefuls.

1. Redskins: Outstanding defense and just enough offense to beat any team in the league.

There are more out there and there will be more in the coming days. No doubt your local columnist is penning a Redskins lovefest article at this moment. The pool is getting quite crowded.

We would like to welcome them and tell them to come on in, the water's warm. Some of us have had such a feeling that this could be a special season for the Redskins quite some time ago.

Back on October 26 when the Redskins were 4-2, before the downs of the rout in the Meadowlands and the agonizing three-game skid, before the ups of the Sunday night win over Philly and the dual thrashings the Redskins delivered to Dallas and the Giants, a piece called "Why Not the Redskins" appeared in this space.

Do the Redskins have “it”? Before the season started, even those with the burgundy and gold glasses permanently perched on their noses would have been hard pressed to make a case for the Redskins, 6-10 in 2004, going to the Super Bowl XL. In September, they were a year or two away at best, primarily because the offense was a mess and the Eagles were the dominant force in the division. Saying that they had an outside shot at a wild-card playoff spot was considered to be a bold statement, anything beyond that was a mix of wishful thinking, fantasy, and lunacy.

Of course, similar things were said of the Carolina Panthers in early 2003. And the 2001 Patriots, the 2000 Ravens and the 1999 Rams and Titans had the same slim to none chance of making it to the title game as the Redskins were given in August. Somewhere along the line, however, they all got “it”. At some point during the season, the players started to seriously think, why not us?

The article went on to list some of the elements that, if they held up, could make the Redskins a dangerous team come playoff time, elements such as Brunell's solid quarterback play, balance, the presence of playmakers on both sides of the ball and, most importantly, a coach who has been there before, with three pieces of hardware in the lobby of Redskins Park to prove it.

Through the ups and downs of the past two months, those elements have remained in place.

The point here is not to brag about possessing some great insight or claim to be some sort of guru with powers of premonition. The fact is that the team that Whitlock and Schein and everyone else is raving about now was there two months ago. None of them, however, bothered to take the time to look at the team, to learn about the character of the players, to examine the possibilities that the team had. Instead, they continued to rag on Dan Snyder, who hasn't played a single down for the team this year. They looked at Joe Gibbs and forgot about three Lombardi's and went straight to the Geritol and Social Security jokes.

Well, better late than never. Come on, everyone and jump in. Just one thing; Lenny, Peter, if you do join the pool party, just leave your shirts on.

The Matrix

NFL.com made a quite useful chart that showed what the playoff seeds will under all possible combinations of results in this weekend’s games with playoff implications. There are five such games and you see them listed in the left half of the chart. Then, going down each column the possible combinations of winners are listed. On the right, there is the playoff seeding that will emerge from those results.

This version of the chart is sorted into the four possible scenarios for the Redskins. In the green section, the Redskins are the division champs (Redskins and Raiders win). In the yellow there are the “win and in” combinations where Washington is a Wild Card (Redskins and Giants win). The orange represents the “back in” sets of circumstances (Eagles and Rams win) and the white is the unthinkable where the Redskins go home (Eagles and Cowboys win).


(if this is a bit small for you to read--sorry, that's as large as blogger will let me post it--you can go here to get the original table)

The top two seeds, Seattle and Chicago, have first-round byes. The #3 seed will host the #6 seed and the #4 hosts the #5. As you can see, most of the scenarios with the Redskins winning the division title have the Giants coming to FedEx Field, although the one with all of the favorites except the Giants winning, the one listed first, has Carolina coming to Washington. A Wild Card Redskins team almost certainly goes to Tampa Bay as long as the Bucs beat the Saints; otherwise a trip to the Meadowlands is likely in the offing.

Mt. Arrington Erupts

You can reach Rich Tandler by email at WarpathInsiders@comcast.net

Just when you thought it was safe, Mt. Arrington erupts again. A couple of months after he finally got off the bench and onto the field, Arrington is at the center of the storm once again. Last time, it was not all his doing as it was the coaches who decided that he should ride the pine. This time, however, the eruption was of Arrington’s own making, created by his own words.

In an article by David Elfin in the Washington Times, Arrington says that this is likely to be his last season in Washington.

He says he would be cut even if he hadn't missed most of last season because of injuries -- injuries that lingered and made him a spare part for much of the first half of this season.

"Obviously, using me sparingly or not at all is a very clear message," says Arrington, who did not play despite suiting up for an Oct. 9 loss to the Denver Broncos. "I'm not wanted here. I believe in my heart that the Redskins faithful love me as Ravens fans love Ray Lewis or Packers fans love Brett Favre. Some individuals hate it that there are more of my jerseys in the stands than anyone else's."

Arrington said that his imminent departure had to do with a laundry list of issues including the dispute over $6.5 million in a contract extension he signed in 2003 and his attitude towards the game.

Arrington says his refusal to give his entire life to football also hurt his standing with coaches. "Causing a fumble to win a game or getting an interception to change a season, that's not the extent of my life," he says. "It never has been. I always see myself as a person first. Maybe coaches get upset that I don't take myself or this game too seriously and they do. Maybe they get upset because I see it as a game and nothing more than a game."

Well, LaVar, when you get paid tens of millions of dollars to play that game, others are entitled to expect that you take it seriously.

Certainly Joe Gibbs does. After practice on Wednesday he refused to comment on the story, saying that he’d just heard about it. He did say that he didn’t even want to think about the situation:

“Right now, for anyone in this organization – or, I would hope, in the entire town – to be focused on anything but Philadelphia is ridiculous. We’re getting ready to play the most important game that a lot of our players have played – in a place where it’s extremely tough to play and in a place where [the home team] just took the Giants into overtime. If we lose the game, we aren’t going anywhere, so my mindset is on one thing: Philadelphia. I’m not thinking about anything else but that.”

This was not like the incident this past April when two reporters stumbled across Arrington in the halls at Redskins Park and, facing another surgery on his knee, he took some emotional shots at the organization. It wasn’t a case where some reporter stuck a microphone in Arrington’s face as he was coming off the practice field or in the locker room after a tough loss. The interview that was the basis for the article took place at Arrington’s house near Annapolis. Either Arrington called up Elfin invited him to come up and talk or Elfin asked Arrington if he could drop by.

In either case, Arrington knew exactly what he was doing. That is what makes this particularly galling.

According to my colleague John Keim, Arrington went to Gibbs with the old “misinterpreted” line. If you believe that you probably flew in Santa sleigh last week. There is no reporter who covers the Redskins who is more respected than David Elfin. He is as good as they come; there’s no doubt that he has everything on tape and that he and his editors made sure that what he wrote fairly and accurately represented what he said.

The Redskins would have to take a net cap hit of some $7 million to cut Arrington. There seems to be little doubt that they will do so. It looks like good riddance.

Through everything that has gone on with Arrington, I’ve always had respect for him as a stand-up guy who often wore his emotions on his sleeve. That has changed. It’s hard to have much respect for a guy who chooses to play games off the field while there are still some very important ones happening on the field.

Looking for meaning

Looking for meaning
During a TV interview following the Redskins’ win over the Giants, Gregg Williams was informed that the Cowboys had come back to win their game against Carolina. That meant that the Redskins wouldn’t be able to have a playoff spot wrapped up until next week.

“I like the fact that we have to win next week,” said Williams. “I think that’s good for this football team. I don’t think we’ve accomplished nearly enough to be able to think that we can take a week off.”

You have to like that point of view and it makes perfect sense. Coaches are always looking for the extra edge to motivate their players and certainly the opportunity to keep playing and keep those paychecks coming in is as good and as practical as any incentive. If the Redskins had clinched this week, there is a chance that they would lose focus and intensity.

Next weekend’s schedule sets up perfectly from the perspective of Williams and, presumably, the rest of the coaching staff. There is no way that the game on Sunday at 4:15 will be rendered meaningless for the Redskins. While a Dallas loss would clinch a playoff spot for the Redskins regardless of the outcome of the game in Philadelphia, that game doesn’t kick off until 8:30 PM on Sunday. If that doesn’t keep the team focused on winning their game, nothing will.

The playoff seed possibilities are narrowing down for the Redskins. If they go 10-6 and win the NFC East, they will be the four seed. Seattle and Chicago have locked up #1 and #2 respectively. The winner of the NFC South will either have 11 wins or it will be Tampa Bay at 10-6 and the Bucs would get the higher seed due to their win over the Redskins.

If the Redskins win on Sunday to earn their playoff spot, they will be the five seed if Carolina loses at Atlanta and they will be the six seed if the Panthers win. If they manage to back in despite a loss on Sunday, they will be the six seed.

If Washington wins the division it will host either the Giants, Panthers, or Bucs. A Wild Card berth will earn a trip to one of those three teams.

Finishing up in style

In his first tenure here, Joe Gibbs’ teams were an impressive 8-3 in the 16th game of the season. On top of that, they never suffered a loss in the final game of the regular season that cost them a playoff spot. In 1991 they had wrapped up home field throughout the playoffs, so their loss to the Eagles was merely an exhibition. In 1987 the Redskins had been eliminated the previous week, so all their overtime loss to Cincinnati didn’t matter.

Only in 1992 did a final-game loss have playoff implications. Facing a win and in, lose and need help scenario going into a Saturday afternoon game against the Raiders, the Redskins came up short, losing 21-20. Fortunately, they got the help they needed the next day as the Packers lost and the Redskins were able to back in.

Big Blew

The New York writers didn’t take out the long knives on the Giants after the game nearly as bad as the press in Texas went after the Cowboys after their loss in Washington. Still, they don’t take losing lightly in the Big Apple. Here are a few tidbits from a column by Steve Serby in the New York Post.

This was the day the Giants should have made a loud statement - to the Redskins, to the 90,000 fans that shouted them down and cursed them, to all the other NFC teams with Super Bowl dreams. They were as quiet as church mice, and just as big, instead.

Little Blue shrunk to the occasion.

Big players play big in big games, and Big Blue was nowhere to be found.

Blue Christmas.Better yet,

Blew Christmas.

. . .

In the old days, you could always count on pride and toughness from the Giants defense. LT steaming around the corner against Joe Jacoby, with Leonard Marshall creating his own havoc on the opposite side. Harry Carson and John Riggins smashing mouths. Jim Burt nose-to-nose with the Hogs.

Little Blue yesterday.

"They just basically threw the ball up and had some fun with it," Michael Strahan said.They threw a roadblock in front of sackless Strahan and Osi Umenyiora.

So many fingers of blame to point, so little time:

Game Blog Giants at Redskins

First Quarter
If the first series is any indication, the Giants will be throwing on early downs to give Eli Manning some time to throw. It almost worked, but Plaxico Burress dropped his first-down bomb.

Somebody on the Redskins must have tipped the referees off about defensive holding on their running plays. Dallas got called for it twice last week and now there is another one in the early going today against the Giants. I don’t recall it being called up until then.

Clinton Portis is going to pop one today. He’s come close a couple of times already on the first offensive series. All he needs to do is make one guy miss and he’ll be off to the races.

Slick and slippery. That’s what Santana Moss was on that little bubble screen that he took to the house. Derrick Dockery did a good job of getting downfield out in front of Moss and the defensive back had absolutely zero chance of getting around him to try to make the tackle.

As one person up here noted, a 7:08 drive with a lot of running is just what you want in Christmas Eve. It would be great to be down in the victorious locker room by 4 PM.

New York does seem to have the Washington defense a bit off balance as they are throwing on first and 10 and running on second and long. The strategy is keeping Manning in the pocket with time to throw and giving Tiki Barber some running room. When they had to pass on third and four, the ball got batted in the air by Phillip Daniels. Still, the drive netted the Giants a field goal.

That was the worst pass Brunell has thrown all year, by far. Perhaps he was out of synch with Thrash, the intended receiver, but it looked like he just didn’t see Chase Blackburn, who got one of the easiest touchdowns a defender will ever get.

It’s not hard to see why Antonio Brown isn’t getting any time at receiver despite his speed. He has no moves at all. If he stops going straight ahead or does any more than a full-speed veer, he’s dead.
I was going to type that the Redskins are setting up a play-action bomb by running on every first down, but I didn’t. I could go back in the chronicle here and do so, but it wouldn’t be right. Good adjustment by Moss on Brunell’s underthrown ball. He’s showing that he’s the complete package as a receiver, not just a speed demon.
 
Second Quarter
Portis was very, very close to breaking it on his first carry of the second quarter. He was just off balance enough when a Giant defender brushed him to get knocked out off bounds. It’s coming, I tell you.
Ade Jimoh is an animal on special teams. As the gunner, he had a Giants trying to both hold and clip him, but Jimoh wouldn’t have any of it. He got to Chad Morton as soon as he caught the punt and made a textbook open field tackle.

It is indeed the season for giving. Manning returned Brunell’s gift-wrapped interception favor with one to Lamar Marshall that should have had a bow on it. Jeremy Shockey has no idea where the ball was, apparently not believing that Eli had thrown it right between the “9” and the “8” on Marshall’s jersey. Happy Holidays, indeed!

The Giants don’t know what hit them on Portis’ TD toss to Cooley. That’s the best spot on the field to try that one from; when they ran it in St. Louis it was near midfield and you don’t expect a running back to have the skills to complete that one. This was just an easy toss to a wide-open Cooley. That’s going to set the New York defenders back on their heels a bit on the toss sweep from here on out.

It’s unusual to see the Redskins playing as soft as they are on this two-minute drive by the Giants. They’re in field goal range thanks to a questionable personal foul call on Ryan Clark and the rush really hasn’t come close to Manning and the coverage has still been rather soft.

New York gets a lucky break to get back into it. Burress should be ashamed of himself for being able to do nothing more than bat Manning’s pass into the air and Toomer should be commended for great concentration in making the catch in the end zone. It doesn’t look like there’s enough to overturn, although it’s very close.

Still, you have to like a 21-17 lead at the half. The Giants still don’t have an answer for the Redskins’ offense.

Third Quarter

That was not the series that the Redskins needed to respond to the Giants’ score near halftime. An OK run, a dropped pass, and a sack, that’s not the way to grab the momentum back. The Giants not only get the ball back, they have decent field position at their own 34.

Clutch special teams play by the Redskins with the blocked chip-shot field goal attempt. For the Giants to score on that drive would have put momentum back on the Giants’ side.

Patrick Ramsey came into the game the last time the Redskins played the Giants, too. The circumstances were quite different as New York had the game well in hand at that point. We’ll see how much Ramsey has learned in his 14 games on the bench.

Clinton Portis—or, more accurately, the offensive line—needs to step it up if the Redskins are going to stay in control. A solid running game is any quarterback’s best friend, especially a rusty one.
It really is too bad that Santana Moss is just a speedster who really isn’t much of a receiver. After bailing out Brunell on an underthrow earlier, he made a great adjustment on Ramsey’s pass and took it to the house again.

A very smooth, cool Manning going to Shockey to convert a third and nine. There were Redskins jumping all around and he calmly found  lane to throw to for a big first down.

This already has been a higher-scoring game than many thought at 28-20 and it’s not even the end of the third quarter yet. Manning is hanging tough.
 
Fourth Quarter
 
I told you that Portis was going to break one. Although 19 yards isn’t exactly coast to coast, he could have gone for 80. Besides, as it gives them a 15-point lead in the fourth quarter, it may have been the most important 19 yards of the season for Portis and the Redskins.
 
I doubt that the Giants will be abandoning the run at this point. They have little hope of Manning drops back on every play. They need two touchdowns and Barber is their best offensive weapon and their best chance of getting the scores.
 
That may have been a little early to go for it on fourth down, especially with six yards to go and over ten minutes to play. A field goal would avoid the necessity for a two-point conversion.
 
After getting played to a standoff for most of three quarters, the Washington offensive line is now beginning to dominate the players in front of them. They’re blowing them back off the line and Betts and Portis are running hard into the holes.
 
One holding call and one possible PI that wasn’t called may have wrapped this one up for the Redskins. The hold brought back a New York TD and the non-call let stand a fourth-down incompletion. I certainly don’t want to imply that interference should have been called on Shawn Springs, just that I’ve seen it called on similar plays.
 
Who is the best team in the NFC now? You could make a case that the Redskins are playing better than anyone now and they have improved more than anyone over the past month. They hung 35 on the Giants, a team that shut them out less than two months ago. That’s all you need for a yardstick to tell how well this group is playing right now.
 
Hail to the Redskins.

Postscript

It’s quite a challenge to get a Redskin to actually acknowledge that he accomplished something out on the field. In the interview room I tried to get Santana Moss to say something about being a big-time player making big plays in a big time game. He talked about hard work and credited Clinton Portis for making the safeties cheat to help with the run. Renaldo Wynn’s block wasn’t a great individual effort, according to Wynn, it was a great scheme that Danny Smith called at the right time.

Clinton Portis did boast—about his passing ability. His success on the ground was due to Moss keeping the defense back on its heels, the offensive line, and great play calling.

As long as that attitude prevails, nobody is going to want to play this team in the playoffs should they get there.

Bold Predictions: Talkin ' Tiki

Speaking of an upcoming Super Bowl, iconoclastic Dallas running back Duane Thomas once said, “If it’s the biggest game of all time, why are they going to play another one next year?”

A similar question could be asked this week. If last week’s game against Dallas was the biggest ever at FedEx Field, what do you call the one against the Giants this Saturday?

It’s not the elimination game that we saw last week with the loser being virtually out of the realistic playoff picture. The Redskins could lose and still qualify for the playoffs with a win the next week in Philadelphia with some help that is not too far-fetched (basically, having Dallas, Atlanta, and Minnesota do no better than split their final two games). Even if the Giants lose, they will still be in control of their own destiny as a win the next week in Oakland would clinch the NFC East for them regardless of the outcome on Saturday.  

Despite the absence of desperation, there is a lot at stake here. The Redskins have pulled themselves up from a 5-6 mark at the beginning of December to having their playoff destiny in their own hands and they don’t want to relinquish their grip on the postseason spot and the potential for a division title. New York would like to clinch the division early and aim towards a possible first-round bye.

And then there’s that little matter of 36-0. The Redskins simply can’t afford to let a statement like that stand, especially since it’s likely that their opponents in the first round of the playoffs would be none other than the New York Giants.

One the defensive side, it’s pretty simple—don’t let Tiki Barber beat you. Eli Manning was over hyped in the beginning of the year but now that’s fading because his performance is. In three December games, Manning’s quarterback rating is a dismal 54. He is, however, managing the games well; the Giants are 3-0 in those games.

Managing the game isn’t too hard when that consists of handing the ball off to Barber. The 30-year-old back has averaged 150 yards a game in December and has gone over 100 yards rushing in each of his last five games. Everyone remembers his performance against the Redskins in October when he rushed for 206 and set the tone for the rout by tearing off a 57-yard run on New York’s first play. Don’t forget that he racked up those yards in about three quarters of work. Like Kobie Bryant the other night, he put up his number and declined to pile it on in the late going with the game well in hand, preferring to rest to fight another day.

One thing that the Redskins have in their favor is that Barber is a better running on turf than he is on grass. He averaged 5.4 yards a carry on the fake stuff and just 3.8 a pop on real grass. There is a chance that both of their starting offensive tackles will miss the game, but neither played last week and that bothered Barber so much that he only ran for 220 yards against the Chiefs. The Redskins can give Tiki his 100, but every yard over that will diminish the Redskins’ chances.

The Giants will have a similar goal; they need to stop Clinton Portis. The Redskins’ three-game winning streak has coincided with a return to an emphasis on the ground game.

As Mark Brunell’s pass attempts have gone down, his quarterback rating has gone up. Other than the ugly 34 caused by the three interceptions in Arizona, he hasn’t been below a 96.8 rating in the past four games. Jon Jansen and Chris Samuels will make it their personal challenges to keep Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora off of Brunell’s back, something they failed to do last time around.

It’s difficult to imagine the Redskins posting a second easy win in a row, just as it’s hard to believe that the Giants will dominate to anywhere near the extent they did last time. The Giants are the slightly better team. They have won two more games than Washington against a similar schedule. The Redskins have the home field. The noise helped force about a half dozen false starts by Dallas last week and the crowd could have come up with a few more had the game been competitive in the second half.

And the Giants just aren’t a good road team. Their only wins away from the Meadowlands (their game against the Saints in Giants Stadium is officially a “road” game) have been in San Francisco and Philly. They haven’t been successful in an atmosphere like they will encounter in FedEx Field all year.

Barber will get his yards and New York will put up some points, about half of what they put up in the Meadowlands. Manning will throw for a touchdown or two but he’ll also toss up a couple of interceptions. Brunell will get knocked around some but Portis will be effective enough to keep his pass attempts around 20. The Redskins will score midway through the fourth quarter to take the lead, but the Giants will battle back. A couple of false starts will push back a field goal attempt and the Redskins will survive.

Redskins 20, Giants 17

Redskins Playing Football Gibbs ' Way

As I was watching the game on Tivo the other night, that play reminded me of something I’d seen a long time ago. So, tonight I pulled out my bootleg DVD copy of the 1982 NFC championship game. On the Redskins first offensive play, John Riggins took a handoff and headed towards a similar moving wall. Riggo slammed into the mass of humanity and picked up a gain of six. That also set the tone for the physical domination that the Redskins would enjoy all day long.

What this says is that towards the end of his second season, this is finally a Joe Gibbs team. He started as an offensive line coach and, to him, that’s where offense begins. When most teams design a pass play the emphasis is on pass patterns and timing; for Gibbs, it’s how to protect the quarterback. That’s when passing is necessary, of course. He would rather run the ball and when Jansen, Dockery, Thomas, Rabach, Samuels and, now, Ray Brown are firing out and pushing the other team back, it’s not hard to have a heavy dose of that in the game plan.

A month ago, the Redskins were on pace to give up as many sacks this season as they did in 2003, when Steve Spurrier’s pass protection schemes drew so much criticism. You don’t hear that talk any more after three straight games that were essentially sack-free. The one sack against the Redskins’ record came on that safety in St. Louis, a miscue between Portis and Mark Brunell more than a leak in the O-line.

Gibbs has been back for a while now. It has taken almost two seasons for his teams to catch up with him. Now, to the rest of  the NFL, Gibbs is ba-ack.

An Amazing Stat

An Amazing Stat

The Redskins are coming into a situation identical to one following a Monday night game. They will have a short week to prepare as played on Sunday and the Giants will have the normal full week having played on Saturday.

Joe Gibbs has mentioned that more than a couple of times, starting minutes after the Dallas game. However, there is scant evidence that this is anything that Gibbs should worry about. Keeping in mind that this situation is similar to a Monday night game setup, with Gibbs’ team on short rest and preparation compared to the opponent, chew on this stat:

On games following Monday night football, Joe Gibbs is 20-3.

That’s just amazing. He’s won coming off of the short week 87% of the time, and the statistical sample covers just less than a season and a half and it’s over a period of 11 seasons (Washington didn’t play on MNF in either of Gibbs’ first two seasons). That, my friends, is a trend.

I’ve heard a lot about the disadvantage of teams playing on a short week, so assume that the average record of teams coming off of MNF is a little under .500. That means that Gibbs’ advantage over the field is 400 percentage points. That’s money.

It was my impulse to say that Gibbs obviously had a much better idea as to how to prepare his team on a short week than other coaches did. But wait, his opponents were always coming off of a regular week. So he did better in what is commonly a disadvantageous situation. He was the one-legged man who won the butt-kicking competition 20 out of 23 times.

Quick Thrill or the Start of Something Big?

You can reach Rich Tandler by email at rtandler@comcast.net

Actually, it looks better when it's served over Tuna:

Right now, still in the glow of spending three hours plus
of being the Dallas Cowboys' daddy, it is a great win. And there is not a chance
it will ever be anything less than that. It was the Cowboys, it was Parcells, it
was for playoff life, it was at FedEx. That will never change.

As is almost always the case, however, we will need some
perspective to see just how this one stacks up in Redskins history against other
big regular-season games. Should the Redskins go to the playoffs, the game's
importance will be magnified. If they advance, it will get bigger. If the
Redskins use a playoff run this year as a springboard to elite status in the
NFL, it will become one of those legendary games that everyone remembers and
something like a quarter of a million people will eventually swear they saw in
person.

The Coverage

One of the best parts of a game like this one is reading
the morning papers and the glowing coverage of the local writers. Truth be told,
many of them are lifelong Redskins fans (I won’t name names). But, to a man
they would rather cover a winning team than a losing one and they’d rather be
covering playoff games than starting to write about offseason moves while the
college bowl season is barely underway.

What can be more fun, though, is to read the perspective
from the other side. Nobody can quite kick the Dallas Cowboys when they are down
than the writers and columnists who know them the best. Here are a couple of fun
ones I came across. First, from Jim Reeves of the Ft.
Worth Star-Telegram:

Considering what was at stake, it has to be the most devastating Cowboys' defeat of the
Parcells' era. After he spent last week telling us how much he liked these
players, they flat quit on him Sunday.

They soiled their britches

It is fair to wonder whether such a dismal failure in such a huge game will
eventually influence Parcells' decision to keep coaching beyond this season.

---

After what we saw Sunday, [the playoffs] might be little more than a pipe dream. A
Michael Irvin under-the-car-seat pipe dream.

---

The offensive line should have swapped uniforms with the Redskins cheerleaders.
When Torrin Tucker and company weren't being flagged for false starts and
holding, they were waving pompoms at the Redskins' defenders as they rushed by.

And from Buck Harvey of the San Antonio Express-News:

Parcells likes his team less today, because the Cowboys quit on him in a rivalry
showdown. When Terry Glenn wasn't pulling back on a crossing pattern (who
wants to get hit?), then Terence Newman was ducking on a tackle that resulted
in yet another Redskins touchdown (who wants to hit?).

The punter shanked, the field-goal kicker missed and nearly everyone on the
offensive line jumped once. Asked about the false starts afterward, Parcells
shrugged and said, "Hey, it's always the same guys."

Centers, guards, tackles. Those same guys.

Parcells glared so much at the offenders that there was concern his face would freeze
that way. And then there was the reigning NFC offensive player of the week:
Had Drew Bledsoe held the ball a little longer, Fox would have had to cut away
for commercial breaks.

That "thump-thump" you just heard was the sound of Cowboys getting thrown under the
bus.

It was not quite so enjoyable watching the highlights on ESPN. I'm

not as big a critic of the self-proclaimed "World Wide Leader" as some
are, but their coverage of the Redskins last night bordered on pathetic. On
"NFL Prime Time", Chris Berman and Tom Jackson were clearly stunned by
the Dallas loss. They said that the Redskins' ground-based game plan was
"Parcells-like".

Uh, excuse me guys, but Joe Gibbs won a Super Bowl with a ground-based
offense before Bill Parcells ever became an NFL coach. It was Gibbs being
"Gibbs-like".

And then on the Sports Center following the Sunday night game, the two
anchors brought it to an even lower level. As the shot of the Redskins' #53
intercepting a pass and returning it to set up a touchdown filled the screen,
the announcer said, "And then Marcus Williams picks off Bledsoe. .
."

It's not as though Marcus Washington is Warrick Holdman or another anonymous
player. He went to the Pro Bowl last year and he's probably going back again.
This past week he was named the Redskins Player of the Year by the Quarterback
Club. If you pay any attention at all to the Redskins, you know who he is.

But the "World Wide Leader" evidently doesn't pay much attention to
them. After showing the highlights and Bill Parcells' comments they showed the
Wild Card standings with the Redskins "out of nowhere" leading for the
second spot.

No, they didn't come out of nowhere. They have been steadily rising over the
past three weeks. They do have a Hall of Fame coach whose teams rallied to
playoffs spots in the past. They have a few pretty good football players. If you
want to remain the "World Wide Leader" you might want to start paying
some attention.

The Playoff Picture

One route to the playoffs is simple--win and in. If the Redskins win their
remaining two games against the Giants and Eagles, they are in the playoffs.
Should New York win its final game of the season against the Raiders in Oakland,
the Redskins would be a Wild Card. If the Giants lose, they will be the NFC East
champs.

There is still the outside possibility of the Redskins getting a first-round
bye (as first talked about
here last week) if they win the division. If the Panthers (Dallas, at
Atlanta) and Bears (at Green Bay, at Minnestoa) lose out but still manage to win
their divisions at 10-6 Redskins division winner would be the #2 seed behind
Seattle and they would be off the first week of the playoffs. The would also get
the second seed if the Bucs and Bears win their divisions at 10-6. The Redskins'
conference record, which would be 10-2, would be the key tiebreaker.

It's also possible that the Redskins could split their next two games--it
wouldn't matter which one the won and which one they lost--and still get in at
9-7. It would just take Dallas (at Carolina, St. Louis) and Atlanta (at Tampa
Bay, Carolina) and Minnesota (at Baltimore, Chicago) to lose one more
game.

That playoff berth could be like the present that is kind of behind the
Christmas tree and you don't find it until that night. The Redskins, Cowboys,
and Falcons all play on Saturday and, if things set up right, the Redskins could
clinch on Christmas night if the Ravens beat the Vikings.