Rich Tandler's Real Redskins

Good first day; live blog picks up Sunday

Good move with Orakpo (now adding that to my spell check dictionary). An even better move was the one not made with Sanchez. The opportunity cost would have been too high and it will be interesting to see what kind of contract he gets from the Jets and how long it will take him to get it.

In the live blog a comment was made that the Jason Taylor trade made moving up impossible. It would have been difficult to move to #5 in any case, but not having that second certainly sealed the deal.

I'm going to paste up some quotes from Orakpo separately in a few minutes. He certainly says all the right things, he seems like a good kid.

The Skins will take the second round off. Things get going tomorrow at 10:00 and I'll pick up the live blog then. Had a great crowd today, please drop by!

By the way, I had a visitor today who was following and commenting in the live blog from his iPhone, so if you get dragged out of the house (or if, you know, you have a life) you can check in via your iPhone and I would think that a number of other mobile devices will work as well.

 

Real Redskins Saturday Draft Live Blog

Snyder: Next year ’s first is safe

Dan Snyder, speaking on ESPN 980, said it flat out:

"We will not trade away next year's No. 1 pick."

That pick likely would be a necessary element for them to move up from the 13^th spot into No. 3 or No. 4. So it would appear that a trade into the top five to take Mark Sanchez is not going to happen.

He volunteered the information in response to Doc Walker's question about moving up to the fourth pick.

This doesn't rule out the Skins making a move should Sanchez slide back to #8 but that would be a much less costly deal.

Draft day live blog Saturday and Sunday

Right here, on Saturday. Under normal circumstances I'd think about starting it at about 5:00 or so since that's when pick #13 will be coming onto the clock. But, with all of the trade rumors it appears that the Skins will be on the clock at any time so I'll get it cranked up at about 4:00.

I'll be using the Cover It Live interface so you can pop in with comments as things unfold.

We'll do it again on Sunday, starting time dependent on whether or not that third-round pick survives any Saturday wheeling and dealing.

See you tomorrow.

Mark Sanchez —Breaking it down

Join me here for an NFL Draft live blog on Saturday and Sunday. We'll get started right around 4:00 on Saturday and again when the proceedings reconvene at 10:00 on Sunday.

Quarterbacks get Redskins fans buzzing. I write a post that is mostly about tackles and linebackers but most of the comments and emails I got were due to one paragraph about the possibility of the Redskins doing some wheeling and dealing to get in position to draft USC quarterback Mark Sanchez.

There is a lot about this that we don't know. In fact, there is a lot here the Redskins don't know. For that matter, the subject of all of this, Sanchez, doesn't know a heck of a lot more about this than we do. From SI.com:

"I think it's going to be an interesting week," Sanchez said."I have no idea what's going to happen. I really don't. In other drafts, the top seemed pretty clear a few days before the draft. Not this year."

It does seem obvious that the Redskins like Sanchez. That means that they're not thrilled with Jason Campbell, a conclusion we could draw from watching how frantically the Skins tried to get Jay Cutler.

I like Campbell, not just as a good guy but as a quarterback. I think that if he gets another year in Jim Zorn's system that he can be a very good QB. He will never be Payton Manning, maybe not even Eli, but he should be able to win on a team with a solid defense and a good running game.

However, you'll note that nothing above is stated with any degree of certainty. That's because there is no certainty about Campbell. He may be the solid signal caller he was during the 6-2 start or the real Campbell might be the one that led an impotent offense during the 2-6 season-ending skid. If he's something in between, that's not very good.

Because of the uncertainty surrounding Campbell, concern about the Redskins quarterback spot is very much a defensible position. Campbell's contract expires at the end of the year. If the labor issue is settled and the status quo remains he will be an unrestricted free agent. Should the cap go away he will be restricted. In either case, if he has a good year the Redskins may lose him. If he has a bad year they can just let him go and start from scratch at the most critical position on the field. (Let's not get into Colt Brennan. He's not the answer—too short and he has a funny delivery. And, at absolute best, Todd Collins would be a one-year stopgap.)

So, if you're concerned about the most important position on the field, what do you do? Do you let things play out and worry about it next year? Or do you go out and do something about it now?

The Cutler pursuit gave us evidence that the Skins would rather do something about it now. There is every reason to think that they are serious about trying to do something to get Sanchez.

And, usually, when the Redskins want something they find a way to make it happen.

But, in this case, they may not be able to. Sanchez is climbing up the boards and it may take a move into the top five in order for the Redskins to get him. And, looking at the draft point value chart, they can't do that without surrendering next year's number one pick and the word is that Daniel Snyder is drawing the line at giving up that pick.

So, is that the end of it? Probably, unless they can concoct this scenario devised by Peter King of SI.com. First he goes through a deal for the third overall pick, which belongs to the Chiefs, that is balanced in terms of the draft pick value chart. That would involve the Redskins giving up their first, third, and fifth picks this year and next year's number one.

But that formula doesn't take into account $34.8 million in guarantees and $12-million-a-year averages. What I think is fair for Washington, and for the team selling off Sanchez, is this: first- and third-round picks this year, and a second-rounder next year. Forget the points. It's just fair value.

I certainly respect King, but we've been hearing for years about how teams should take less to trade out of high picks in order to get out from under the huge contracts that you have to give unproven players there, but it never has happened. This scenario isn't something that King based on any information from inside sources; he just made it up. I'd have to rate the possibility of it happening as very slim.

As Sanchez said, however, the top of the draft remains very fluid. If Sanchez were to slip back to the eighth slot then all bets are off. The Redskins would have to give up just their pick at No. 13 and their third-round pick (or next year's second). I don't think there's any question that the Redskins would pull the trigger to make that happen if Sanchez still is on the board.

Would that be a good thing? Like any other deal there are pros and cons. The biggest factor against considering such a deal would be the opportunity cost. The Redskins would lose the chance to get a starting-quality player at one of their positions of need and other possible starters or quality depth with the lesser picks they would have to give up.

But if—and there's that uncertainty again—Sanchez turns out to be a stud NFL quarterback then whatever price the Redskins will have paid to get him will be utterly irrelevant. It will have been worth it.

My new book The Redskins Chronicle will be coming out soon. This book takes a unique and thorough look at Redskins history from when they moved to Washington in 1937 right through the 2008 season. Take a look at an excerpt and sign up to get notified when the book come out at RedskinsChronicle.com.

Just a guy

The Washington Redskins go into the NFL draft next weekend and the popular perception is that they have at least three glaring needs. It's considered unacceptable to have either Jon Jansen or Stephon Heyer starting at right tackle, relying on a tag team of Phillip Daniels and Renaldo Wynn at left defensive end is a shaky plan at best and there isn't a starting-quality strong-side linebacker on the roster.

The Redskins can expect to have the opportunity to get an immediate starter at one of those positions on Saturday when their first-round pick comes up at No. 13. If you're reading this, you know the names—Michael Oher and Andre Smith at tackle, Brian Orakpo and Robert Ayers at end and Rey Maualuga and Brian Cushing at linebacker.

Or they might elect not to take any of those players if they trade up to take USC quarterback Mark Sanchez. Dan Snyder, Vinny Cerrato and Jim Zorn spent Friday night wining and dining Sanchez at a trendy D. C. restaurant. I don't think that they waste their time doing that unless they are serious about making a move. That doesn't mean that it will happen but it has to be considered to be a possibility.

So, two or three of the above needs will remain after the first day of the draft. You can't count on getting immediate help on the second day so come Sunday night when Mr. Irrelevant is named the Skins still will be unsettled in more than one position.

And many, if not most, NFL teams will be in the same boat. You can't fill every starting position with a high draft pick or with a premium free agent. Sometimes you have to go with someone who is just a guy.

Should the Redskins not land an offensive tackle that guy could be Jansen or Heyer or maybe Devin Clark, a rookie free agent who spent last year on the practice squad. Wynn, Daniels, and Chris Wilson could be the guys rotating at left DE. H. B. Blades was a guy who filled in at linebacker last year and didn't embarrass himself. Or another guy who could end up starting at the Sam linebacker is the recently-signed Robert Thomas, who has started 50 NFL games in six years in the league.

If you're starting just a guy, it's likely that you have to design your schemes to compensate for the average to below-average skills that your guy possesses. For this reason, the Redskins might be well advised to use their top pick on either the linebacker or the end. Since they usually are lined up on the same side of the field it makes it much more difficult to cover the weak spot.

And, again, the Redskins will not be alone if they start a couple of players who are just a guy. Virtually every NFL team has to pull a guy off the bench or sign a guy who is in low demand as a free agent and insert him into the starting lineup.

This isn't to say that this is the ideal situation. That would be to have a young player who you drafted a couple of years ago ready to step in and start. But with 22 starting positions to fill, so much player movement and the uncertainties of the draft it doesn't always work out that way. And, since the Redskins trade away so many draft picks (last year being very much the exception) they have that ready-to-go player available less often than most teams.

But if it's not ideal that doesn't mean that it's a disaster. Nevertheless, Redskins Nation is likely to be fretting and wringing its collective hands on Monday morning, lamenting unfilled needs. Chances are, though, that a few guys will end up working out just fine.

Redskins 2009 Schedule

Here it is, check back later for a few words about it.

1 Sep 13WAS @ NYG Giants Stadium4:15 PM FOX 
  2 Sep 20STL @ WAS FedEx Field1:00 PM FOX 
  3 Sep 27WAS @ DET Ford Field1:00 PM FOX 
  4 Oct 04TB @ WAS FedEx Field1:00 PM FOX 
  5 Oct 11WAS @ CAR Bank of America Stadium1:00 PM FOX 
  6 Oct 18KC @ WAS FedEx Field1:00 PM CBS 
  7 Oct 26PHI @ WAS FedEx Field8:30 PM ESPN 
  8 Bye
9 Nov 08WAS @ ATL Georgia Dome1:00 PM FOX 
  10 Nov 15DEN @ WAS FedEx Field1:00 PM CBS 
  11 Nov 22WAS @ DAL Dallas Cowboys New Stadium1:00 PM FOX 
  12 Nov 29WAS @ PHI Lincoln Financial Field1:00 PM FOX 
  13 Dec 06NO @ WAS FedEx Field1:00 PM FOX 
  14 Dec 13WAS @ OAK Oakland Coliseum4:05 PM FOX 
  15 Dec 21NYG @ WAS FedEx Field8:30 PM ESPN 
  16 Dec 27DAL @ WAS FedEx Field8:20 PM NBC 
  17J an 03WAS @ SD Qualcomm Stadium4:15 PM FOX 

Smith, Sanchez and other draft thoughts

The NFL draft takes place in a week from Saturday and the Washington Redskins will be on the clock at pick number 13. They also have picks in the third (80th overall), fifth (150), sixth (186) and a compensatory pick in the seventh (243). The second- and seventh-round picks are vaporware, having gone in trades for Jason Taylor and Erazmus James respectively. The fourth-rounder was used to obtain Pete Kendall.

Those are all the picks they have for right now. There is a lot of talk about trading down to pick up some extra selections as the Redskins did last year. Of course you have to find a partner to do that and in most cases a team won't commit to trading up until the pick that they may want is on the clock to ensure that the player that they covet will be there.

If, say, quarterback Mark Sanchez is on the board at #13, the Redskins' phone could well be ringing off the hook. The Jets need a QB, and they pick at No. 17. They could slide up to get Sanchez and give up their third-round pick to do so.

They could trade out of the first round altogether like they did last year, but that seems unlikely. It would take three second-round picks to get the 13^th pick and as of now no other team has the ammo to be able to pull this off.

Another way to gain up additional picks is to trade selections in future years. While I don't think that Vinny Cerrato and Jim Zorn are on the hot seat to the extent that some do, I wouldn't be shocked to see them pull the trigger and use the team's 2010 first-round pick a year early. The standard formula is that next year's first gets you a second this year and if there is a player that the Redskins want sitting there and a team is willing to deal, they could well do it.

If the Redskins do pick at 13, who will they take? If I had to take a guess right now—and, unlike others, I will admit that this is just a guess—I'd say Alabama tackle Andre Smith. Yes, he blew off the combine, and he appeared to be a fat tub of goo at his pro day. Yes, he was suspended from the Crimson Tide's bowl game for a violation of team rules. However, if he's there he's the best player on the board, hands down. I'll take three years of game film showing a guy who has produced more pancakes than IHOP over the past three years over a couple of months of suspect behavior. Certainly, the Redskins would have to do their homework but in the absence of any red flags prior to February of this year they should pull the trigger.

It appears that more and more teams are starting to look at film of Smith rather than examine his pro day girth, however, and Smith may not be there at 13. Another choice at offensive tackle, Michael Oher of Mississippi, is sliding in the opposite direction so the Redskins may not be able to upgrade the tackle position in the first round. The worst mistake you can make is to reach to fill a need.

Will they take Sanchez? Mel Kiper created an uproar on Redskins message boards by listing the USC product as the Skins' selection at #13. I think that there is about a 10% chance that he is right. You have to look at the fact that Jason Campbell is in the last year of his deal and the recent Jay Cutler pursuit has to make you believe that the Redskins think that they can upgrade the position. While they say that Campbell is their man, I don't think that they'll hesitate to pull the trigger on Sanchez if he's by far the best player on their board.

My dark horse for the pick is running back Knowshon Moreno of Georgia. I think that they have to have someone who can be productive in spelling Clinton Portis, and they need to look beyond the Portis era. If there is no salary cap in 2010, in fact, that era could end sooner rather than later.

Things should settle down in the next week or so and I'll post a revised guess prediction for the pick. I am planning on doing a live blog for both days of the draft so check back for details on that.

The first excerpt from my new book The Redskins Chronicle has been posted. Go here to take a look. To find out more about the book and to sign up to get notified when it gets published, go to RedskinsChronicle.com.

The biggest Redskins deals that never happened

For every trade and other deal that NFL teams make, there are a dozen or so that are rumored or that fall apart for a variety of reasons. Here, in reverse chronological order, are some of the biggest Washington Redskins deals that never took place.

• Jay Cutler from Denver to Washington, 2009—This is the most recent, of course. A direct trade with the Broncos didn't get traction because Broncos coach Josh McDaniels didn't want Jason Campbell and a three-way trade involving Cleveland fell apart at the last minute.
  
  
• Lance Briggs from Chicago to Washington, 2007—This was a Dan Snyder creation. The trade came up over cocktails with Briggs' agent Drew Rosenhaus at the owners' meetings. Pro Bowl linebacker Briggs, the Bears' franchise player, would have gone to Washington and the Redskins and the teams would have swapped first-round picks (the Redskins had No. 6, the Bears No. 31). The Bears didn't seem to want any part of it and Joe Gibbs didn't seem to be very enthusiastic about it either. Rosenhaus managed to keep the talk going for a while it never happened.
  
  
  
  
• Reggie White as a free agent to Washington, 1993—White was the biggest catch of the first truly free free agency class in 1993. It appeared certain that the Redskins would be able to outbid everyone for the defensive end's services. The Packers weren't considered to be a factor at all until the moment he signed a four year, $17 million deal with Green Bay.
  
  
• John Elway from Denver to Washington, 1991—The two teams involved managed to keep a tight lid on this one and we heard nothing about it at the time. Mark Rypien, the Redskins starter in 1990, was balking at signing a new contract, so Joe Gibbs got on the phone to the Broncos to talk about dealing for Elway, who at the time was a star without a championship ring. The talks never got beyond preliminary discussions. Rypien eventually signed and went on to become the Super Bowl MVP.
  
  
• Darrell Green from Washington to Denver, 1989—This one got way beyond the talking stage and almost became a reality. Here's the story from the pages of my upcoming book The Redskins Chronicle:
  

  April 4—For how much longer will Darrell Green be a Washington Redskin?
  

  Trade talks with the Denver Broncos have gone from discussion to real negotiation in the past days. The Redskins would take Denver's first-round pick (13th overall) and a player for the rights to Green. Just who that player would be is the sticking point.
  

  The Redskins are willing to part with their 1983 first-round pick for a couple of reasons. One is the nagging injuries that have slowed the 5-9, 185-lb. cornerback to the extent that the team is concerned that he may be on the downside of his career.
  

  The other reason is money. Green made $450,000 last year and is looking for a raise to $1 million a year. The Redskins are willing to give him a raise, but not to seven figures. The Broncos apparently are willing to pay Green his asking price.
  

  The team has braced for Green's possible departure by signing cornerback Martin Mayhew as a free agent.
  

  
  

The Redskins eventually decided to hold on to Green and he signed a new contract in July.

• Sonny Jurgensen from Philadelphia to Washington, 1960—Yes, this deal did occur—in 1964. In 1960, Jurgensen was a backup to Norm Van Brocklin and the Redskins had their eye on him. But the Eagles didn't want to give up their promising clipboard carrier. Four years later, after Jurgensen became the starter and tormented the Redskins on several occasions, the Skins finally got their man.
  

All of these trade rumors and the stories of the deals that did happen are detailed in my upcoming book The Redskins Chronicle. If you want to know when it comes out, just go to the book's website and sign up.

Did I miss any? Do you remember any that you want me to investigate? Discuss in the comments.

Redskins outbid for Cutler

I have an iPod Nano. It's one generation old and it's perfectly functional for what I need an iPod to do. It plays music fine and while the video screen is pretty small I can still watch stuff on it without killing my eyes.

I was in Costco last week and I saw the new iPod Touch. Much bigger screen, WiFi, you can use most of those cool apps made for the iPhone. It clearly is superior to my Nano.

But it carried a price tag of over $200. I probably could sell my Nano on Ebay and recoup some of the cost, but it still would be a net purchase of well over a hundred bucks. I went home, did some research on it, went back to the store picked up the card to take to the register to buy the Touch.

Before I got in line, however, I decided to stick with the Nano. I put the card back and walked away from the shiny new Touch. While the Touch certainly would have been an upgrade, the price of that upgrade didn't justify the added benefits.

I'm sure you know where I'm going here. Jason Campbell is that Nano that the Redskins already had and Jay Cutler was the slick, shiny model that the Redskins coveted. The Skins were willing to pay to upgrade. Apparently, they were willing to overpay, but only so much. When the price became too steep, they walked away.

Of course, it's not as simple as that. There were other factors in the unraveling of what seemed to be a done deal that would have brought Cutler to Washington and would have sent Campbell packing.

A big factor was that the Broncos weren't particularly interested in Campbell. I was told that by someone who knows the team well when all of this popped up a couple of weeks ago. According to John Keim, that may have been the deal breaker.

"They had the compensation," another NFL source said of the Redskins. "In the end they [the Broncos] chose Orton over Campbell."

To be sure, the Redskins could have sweetened the pot enough to make the Broncos swallow hard and accept Campbell. Or they could have gone further to make the three-way deal with Cleveland discussed in Keim's article, one that would have sent Brady Quinn to Denver, one that the other two parties couldn't refuse.

But even teams in a "covetous frenzy" as Michael Wilbon put it, have their limits. I'm not going to join those congratulating Snyder and Cerrato for their restraint because, from what I can gather, what they were willing to give up was still ridiculous. They just didn't cross the line to totally outrageous.

Sometimes the best deals are the ones you don't make. We'll have to follow the careers of Cutler, Campbell, and whoever the Redskins take in the first round this year and next to figure out if this trade the wasn't is one of those.