Rich Tandler's Real Redskins

Shanahan has been solid in late rounds

The Washington Redskins have 10 picks in rounds five four through seven in the third and final day of the NFL draft. Today Mike Shanahan, who will be orchestrating the process and who will have final say in who is selected, will hope that he continues the success he had finding productive players in the late rounds when he was with the Denver Broncos. From 1995 through 2008, Shanahan was either in charge of the Broncos’ 14 drafts or he had heavy influence. In that time Dener had 70 picks in rounds 4-7 and 39 of them have played 16 NFL games or more during their careers. Of those players, 23 were their team’s primary starter for at least one season, four made at least on Pro Bowl. Among the better players Shanahan drafted in the last four rounds are running back Terrell Davis (round 6) and Elvis Dumervil (4). That looks like a fairly solid performance but how does it compare with the rest of the league? With time not permitting an in-depth look at the other 31 teams’ drafts, let’s take a look at how Shanahan’s late-drafting prowess compares to that of four teams considered to be among the very best in the business when it comes to getting great results in the draft—the Patriots, Packers, Steelers, and Giants. The details are below, but for a quick comparison here is what those four teams have averaged in the past 14 drafts (1997-2010): Players drafted: 73 Played in 16 games or more: 38 At least one season as starter: 19 Made at least one Pro Bowl: 4 So, Shanahan with close to the same number of late-round players drafted as the four teams who are the gold standard for drafting (70 for Broncos, 73 average), had just about the same number of players who played in at least one season’s worth of games (39 Broncos, 38 average), did better when counting players who were their teams’ primary starters for at least one year (23 Broncos, 20 average) and found the same number of Pro Bowl as the average (4). The caveat here is that this is just a quick look further study would be needed to thoroughly evaluate how well Shanahan has drafted late compared to the rest of the league. But the surface analysis makes a good case that Shanahan’s performance compares favorably with the best in the busiess. Here are the details for the other four teams: Patriots last 14 drafts 78 picks in rounds 4-7,  41 who played 16 games or more, 17 who were their team’s primary starters for at least one season, six who made at least one Pro Bowl. Best picks Tom Brady (6), Assante Samuel (4) Green Bay last 14 drafts 79 picks in rounds 4-7, 47 who played in 16 games or more, 23 who started at least one season, five who made at least one Pro Bowl, five who made at least one Pro Bowl. Best picks Donald Driver (7), Aaron Kampman (5) Pittsburgh last 14 drafts, 71 picks in rounds 4-7, 29 who played in at least 16 games, 13 who were their teams primary starters for at least one season, two who made at least one Pro Bowl. Best picks Bret Keisel (7), Aaron Smith (4) New York Giants last 14 drafts, 63 picks in rounds 4-7, 35 who played in at least 16 games, 21 who were their team’s primary starter for at least one season, three who made at least one Pro Bowl. Best picks Brandon Jacobs (4), David Diehl (5) Join me today for the third and final day of my marathon NFL draft chat on CSNwashington.com. We'll get it going at about high noon.  

Draft chat tonight

OK, folks, about to go of the grid for a few hours as NY City approaches. Will pop in occasionally here and on the NFL Buzz Blog on CSN Washington. Don't forget 7:30 tonight, my draft chat live from Radio City Music Hall in New York.

Wes Bunting and Tandler talk Redskins draft needs

Thanks to Wes for dropping by the CSN Washington studios to chat abut the draft.

Will the Redskins jump over the Titans?

There is talk that the Titans have their eye on Jake Locker. If Locker is the Redskins' man, will they trade up to make sure they can get him? There is a way to make that happen. See the details here in the NFL Buzz Blog on CSNwashington.com. Not sure if it would be a good idea but it's there if they want to do it and it wouldn't completely wreck their draft.

' Rogue Scout ' compares Locker to Favre

The on-again, off-again connection between the Jake Locker and the Washington Redskins appears to be moving closer to being on. While the Redskins' draft plans are shrouded in smoke and what can be seen is distorted by mirrors, more and more mock drafts by more and more analysts are starting to slot Locker to the Redskins with the 10th pick. This in no way means that the Locker pick is certain or even probable. But it certainly seems to be a growing possibility. While the need for a quarterback is clear, many Redskins fans have problems with Locker. The main thing that they and many scouts point out is his low completion percentage. He completed just 55 percent of his passes last year while throwing against college cornerbacks. One can only imagine what that projects to going against NFL defensive backs every week. However, one scout makes a strong case for Locker. He is not working for any teams right now, due at least in part for his willingness to take strong stands that go against the conventional wisdom. Dave Razzano is known as the "Rouge Scout" and he is high on Locker. In an article by Mike Silver of Yahoo! Sports, Razzano says that Locker reminds him of Bret Favre.

“Everybody says he’s inaccurate. He’s not – he throws a great ball! It’s a low-percentage offense. There’s never anybody open underneath, and he’s got no protection. You can see it if you look closely enough. People are stupid.

Perhaps things like punctuating his comments with things like "people are stupid" is why he doesn't work for a team now, but that's beside the point. On the Redskins official blog, Matt Terl pulls up Favre's and Locker's college stats and he does find a remarkable resemblance between them. You should read the whole article to see where Razzano is coming from and what players he has been right (and wrong) about. But Redskins fans should find the comments on Locker the most interesting. Here is how the article finishes up:

Watching Locker roll to his right and release the ball just before an oncoming pass rusher arrived, Razzano exclaimed, “Look, he puts his shoulder into it. Look! It’s just like Favre. If people can’t see that …” I could almost feel the Excitement Meter shaking with seismic abandon. Razzano paused the tape and continued: “My first exposure to Locker, watching a game on TV, I did not like what I saw. He threw errant passes and wasn’t very accurate. But then I saw the tape and realized it’s not him. He had more drops [by receivers] than anyone in the Pac-10, and he was running for his life – his line was probably the worst in the conference. And he still made plays with the game on the line. The guy’s a winner.” Razzano hit play on the remote and paced around the room as Locker faked a handoff, rolled to his left and threw a touchdown pass to a receiver in the middle of the end zone. “Look at him here,” Razzano said, “throwing against the grain …”

 

Record 25 players to attend NFL draft

Despite the threat of an NFLPA-inspired boycott, 25 players will be present for the NFL draft at Radio City Music Hall starting Thursday. Don't forget to join me here and at CSNwashington.com for coverage of the draft live from Radio City Music Hall in New York. My Marathon Draft Chat will start at about 7:30 on Thursday and be active for all 254 picks of the draft. Here are the players who will attend:

• Prince Amukamara CB Nebraska
• Corey Liuget DT Illinois
• Akeem Ayers LB UCLA
• Von Miller LB Texas A&M
• Adrian Clayborn DE Iowa
• Rahim Moore S UCLA
• Randall Cobb WR Kentucky
• Cam Newton QB Auburn
• Marcell Dareus DT Alabama
• Patrick Peterson CB Louisiana State
• Nick Fairley DT Auburn
• Mike Pouncey G/C Florida
• Blaine Gabbert QB Missouri
• Aldon Smith DE Missouri
• AJ Green WR Georgia
• Tyron Smith T Southern California
• Mark Herzlich LB Boston College
• Phil Taylor DT Baylor
• Mark Ingram RB Alabama
• Danny Watkins G Baylor
• Cameron Jordan DE California
• JJ Watt DE  Wisconsin
• Julio Jones WR Alabama
• Ryan Williams RB Virginia Tech
• Ryan Kerrigan DE Purdue

 

Redskins second-round trade possibilities

There has been plenty of talk about the possibility of the Washington Redskins trading back their first-round draft pick, the tenth overall, in order to add additional selections later in the draft.

They may not be able to execute such a trade for a number of reasons. They have to find another team to deal with and that means that a player that the other team desperately wants has to be on the board. With nine teams picking in front of them a lot could happen to torpedo any deals that the Redskins may have worked out with potential trading partners. In addition, the Redskins might have a player who they have rated as a top-five talent fall to them at 10. With so many needs, it seems that virtually any of the top players could fit in and they might have to abandon any thoughts of moving down to take advantage of the value on the board. Being unable to move down in the first round, however, does not squash any chances that they may have of picking up additional picks in this draft or in a future draft. Their second-round pick, the 41st overall, could be quite attractive to another team that couldn't quite get what it wanted in the first round. Using the draft trade value chart (not always adhered to completely, but useful as a guideline) and some past history, we can take an educated guess at what the Redskins might be able to get in exchange for their second rounder. A first-round pick in 2012--This happens with some degree of frequency. Any pick in the following drafted traded one-for-one for a pick in the current draft is generally one round better. It seems unlikely that the Redskins would pull the trigger on such a deal unless they were pretty confident that the result would be a top-five pick. A later second and a third--If they drop back into the range of picks 20-30 (picks 52-62 overall) they could pick up a pick somewhere in the middle of the third round. The Chargers have multiple picks in the second and third round and while they don't have the exact picks that would make such a deal work they could make up the difference by swapping around some other later selections. With as many needs as the Redskins have they certainly could find a player who would represent good value a dozen or so slots back. A later second and a second next year--The same deal described above could be done with a second-rounder for next year as compensation instead of the 2010 third. This scenario might be a little more attractive than taking a first next year as it will not have the Redskins sitting out rounds two through four this year. A later second and a fourth--If there are six players or so who the Redskins would like when pick 41 rolls around, they could go back five or six spots and pick up a fourth-round pick. A later second and a fifth--Moving down three spots would still net the Redskins enough value to get another pick in the fifth round. Again, if there are a few players with whom they'd be happy there, why not trade back. It may be difficult to find a trade partner here but if the chips fall right and, say, the Lions at 44 want a player who they think theTexans or Vikings might take, they might spend the fifth to ensure that they can get their guy. Should the Redskins move back? Stand pat? Would would your draft strategy be?

Rams signaling they ' re willing to deal?

In an article on StLToday.com, Rams GM Billy Devaney was quoted as saying the following:

But chances are, we're going to stay right at 14, and we'll be fine. We have a really good feeling that there will be a couple of guys there that we'll be thrilled to have. It's probably not worth our while to give up picks to make a move to go get a particular guy.

In case you haven't noticed, this is lying season in the NFL. You can usually take what any GM or any other team official and expect the exact opposite. Here is the truth-serum version of what Devaney said:

Sure, we're willing to deal, up or down. But don't expect me to pay a premium to move up and don't even think about calling with a lowball offer if you want to me to move back.

Are you listening, Mike Shanahan? (h/t to @EvanSilva)

Shanahan should be happy with pre-draft buzz

 

[caption id="attachment_5657" align="aligncenter" width="250" caption="Dalton's TCU team was undefeated in 2010"][/caption] It is unlikely that Mike Shanahan has much time these days to see what is being said about the Washington Redskins on the internet. But if he did, he'd be smiling. On Friday, we talked about John McClain of the Houston Chronicle reporting that he has heard a great deal of buzz about the possibility of the Redskins trading up in the first round to get a quarterback, presumably Blaine Gabbert, early in the round. Then yesterday came the following from another highly-connected NFL scribe, Pete Prisco of CBS Sports:

According to a league source, the Redskins are looking to trade down in the first round with the idea they will draft either Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder or TCU quarterback Andy Dalton. The Redskins, who pick 10th overall, would like to get a second-round pick from a team in exchange for moving back to their spot in the first round. They could then use their two second-round picks to bolster the defense.

So one well-wired writer says that they're moving up. Another says that they're hell bent on trading down. There is supposed to be interest in Gabbert. The Redskins' interest in Ponder has been known for a while but Dalton, who has visited Redskins Park, is a relatively new name to the mix. Add in Shanahan's longtime infatuation with Jake Locker and you have a bevy of potential quarterback targets for the Redskins. In other words, nobody has any idea what is going on. Matt Terl at the Redskins official blog counted 29 different players being tabbed as the Redskins' first-round selection. This is partially due to the fact that the Redskins have so many needs that you could justify a pick at almost any position. But it also means that the Redskins' smoke-producing machine is cranked up in high gear and is having its intended effect. Does all of the smoke have you confused? What do you think the Redskins will do?

Redskins could trade up for QB Gabbert

There is a lot of, well, stuff floating around these days as we are less than two weeks away from the NFL draft. You hear that just about every team wants this player or that one and wants to trade up or down. I literally could spend all day on the keyboard pounding out the latest rumors being floated around. Certain reports, however, make me stop what I'm doing and take notice.

John McClain of the Houston Chronicle is one of the best and most respected NFL reporters out there. He doesn't just make stuff up or pass along something that he overheard one guy say or anything like that. He's old school and he's going to be pretty sure about something before he reports it. So, when I saw this tidbit I, as noted above, stopped what I was doing and took notice:

I don't know what they have to offer, but I hear the Redskins are trying like crazy to trade up to get one of the quarterbacks, Blaine Gabbert, I imagine.

This, of course, has all of the elements of the smoke that was discussed here earlier this week. And I'm passing it along only because of who wrote it. But let's assume for a moment that it's true and the Redskins are hell bent on putting Blaine Gabbert in burgundy and gold. What would it take for the Redskins to trade up from tenth overall to a position where they would have a reasonable shot at Gabbert?

The fourth pick could be a good spot from which to pluck Gabbert. If, as predicted, the Panthers take Cam Newton first overall and the Broncos and Bills address other needs, Gabbert could be there when the Bengals draft with the fourth pick. Of course, there is no guarantee that John Elway is happy with Tim Tebow or that the Bills will stick with Ryan Fitzpatrick or that the Bengals won't prepare for life without Carson Palmer.

But, for the purposes of the exercise here, let's assume that Gabbert is available in the fourth slot and that the Redskins want to go get him. According to the draft value chart, the fourth pick is worth 1,800 points and the tenth is worth 1,300. The 500-point difference is the value of the 40th pick in the draft. The Redskins hold the 41st pick, so one would think that perhaps one of their seventh-rounders to make up the difference might get the deal done. This doesn't mean that it would be a good idea. In fact, I'm sure that it is just unanimous that it would be a terrible idea. But, in answer to McClain's query about what they have to offer, there's the answer.

What do you think? Should the Redskins trade up to get their QB of the future? More importantly, will they?