Rich Tandler's Real Redskins

A double deal for the Redskins?

[caption id="attachment_5631" align="aligncenter" width="245" caption="Jake Locker"][/caption] The Washington Redskins face a dilemma. They are in need of a quarterback of the future and it seems likely that they would like to obtain that quarterback in the upcoming NFL draft. However, the draft board does not seem to line up in favor of the Redskins being able to select a quality signal caller. The top two prospects, Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert, are likely to be gone by the time the Redskins initial pick, the tenth overall, rolls around. It would be a major reach for the Redskins to take one of the second-tier quarterbacks on the board, players such as Jake Locker and Christian Ponder, at that point. However, when the Redskins' next turn comes up in the second round, the 41st pick, other quarterback-needy teams may have snapped up the other more desirable signal callers. There is a possible solution to this thorny situation. The Redskins could pull off a double deal, moving back their first-round pick to pick up some additional picks that they could use to improve their second-round pick. Here is one way such a deal could play out. The Redskins trade back with the Rams, who have the 14th overall pick and are said to covet Alabama wide receiver Julio Jones. If you go by the draft value chart as a guideline (although some teams look at it and some ignore it, most pick for pick trades come close to matching the chart values), there is a 200-point difference between picks 10 and 14. That just so happens to be the value of pick number 78, the Rams' third-round pick. Should the deal be made some other, later picks could change hands but for now we'll focus on the third-round pick. (Note: Making that trade with the Rams has been discussed here previously.) The Redskins do not have a third-rounder so they certainly could use that pick for a player who could contribute in 2011. Or they could use it to move up their second-round pick and perhaps get a quarterback. The 41st pick is worth 490 points so you add that to the 200-point third-rounder to get 690, or about the value of the 27th pick. That belongs to the Falcons. The Redskins could take their second and their newly-acquired third and package them to move up to get a second first-round pick and take Locker or Ponder or whichever second-tier quarterback might fit into their plans. If Atlanta doesn't want to deal, perhaps the Patriots, picking 28th and frequently willing to trade back for extra picks, will pull the trigger. Or if the Redskins think that the Seahawks, drafting 25th, might have their eyes on a signal call who they covet, the Redskins could package that second, the just-acquired third, and one of their two fifths and deal them to the Saints for the 24th pick. There are other potential trade partners for both the first and second parts of this scenario. But it could be a way for the Redskins to still get a very good player with their first pick and to fill the quarterback hole in one night. What do you think? Should the Redskins do something like this if the opportunity presents itself? Should they stand pat? Or should the use any picks acquired by trading back to draft players, not trade up? Let us know in the comments.  

How big a need is running back?

This is continuing along the luxury/necessity theme that we've been visiting here. Can the Redskins roll just fine at running back with Ryan Torain, Keiland [caption id="attachment_5620" align="alignright" width="100" caption="Ryan Williams"][/caption] Williams, and maybe a veteran free agent or a late-round draft pick? Or if a running back like Ryan Williams (right) is the top player on their draft board in the second round should they pull the trigger? Ryan O'Halloran and I debate the question in our weekly installment of Point-Counterpoint.

Go here to read the article on CSN Washington.

 

Defining luxury in the draft

The article I wrote last Thursday about whether or not Julio Jones would be a “luxury” pick for the Redskins, as John Keim quoted an NFL GM as saying, got a reaction that brings up questions beyond the wisdom of selecting Jones with the tenth overall pick in the draft. First of all, just to make it clear, the view here is that the Redskins should take the top player on their draft board with the tenth pick. If that happens to be Julio Jones, so be it. They should not either reach for someone like Jones nor should they bypass him if he is the best player on their board. The discussion about Jones brought out two main issues. One is the importance of the wide receiver position. I’m not quite sure why adding a quality player at that position could be considered a luxury. Just look at the numbers. The Redskins passed on about 65 percent of their plays last year. While that’s probably more than Mike Shanahan wanted to pass, the league average is around 60 percent and the Redskins probably won’t throw much less than that going forward. And they line up with at least two and frequently three or even four wide receivers on each snap. That means that there are anywhere from 18 to 36 percent of the players on the field having a major impact on about 60 percent of the plays. Somebody who is smarter than I am probably could work up an index to figure out the importance of having quality players at the wide receiver spot based on those numbers. But it seems to me that the impact of the position is pretty substantial. Again, I don’t know if Jones is the best pick or if he isn’t. But, as I pointed out in the original article, it’s impossible to make the case that the wide receiver position isn’t in great need of an upgrade and it’s hard to make the case that the position is somehow less important than other areas of need. The second issue was best summed up in a tweet by my friend @fatpickled.

love Jones size/athletisism, but WR's generally take 3 yrs 2 have an impact.

This echoes comments that I have heard over the past few months from people saying that the Redskins need to draft a position that provides an immediate impact, perhaps a lineman on either side of the ball or linebacker. But many of those same people figure that it will take two or three years at a minimum for the Redskins to be serious playoff contenders. If that is the case, then why not get the players in the positions that take the longest to develop, like wide receiver and quarterback, in the house now and get the learning process starting? What is the sense in taking a few years to build up the lines if you then have to take a few more years to get the skill positions up to snuff? This goes back to what I’ve been saying about Redskins fans for a few months. Many of them say that they realize that rebuilding the team will take [caption id="attachment_5617" align="alignleft" width="150" caption="Graham gano"][/caption] some time. However, they will raise holy hell over the actual steps of rebuilding, like possibly letting the 32-year-old Santana Moss walk in free agency or suffering through the growing pains of young players like Graham Gano or, in this case, executing a high draft pick that might not pay immediate dividends. In short, they are in favor of Shanahan rebuilding “the right way” as long as that way is their way and as long as it happens in a hurry. So, which is it, folks? Rebuild so it will last a while? Or make your moves with paying off immediately? It's not impossible to do both but should Shanahan not draft the best player on the team's draft board because it might take him two or three years to become truly effective? What do you think? Hit the comments below and let us know.  

A logical trade back partner for the Redskins

Last week, Mike Reiss of ESPN Boston came up with a possible use for the Redskins' first-round draft pick that I found to be preposterous. Today, Reiss has a more reasonable and believable notion of what Mike Shanahan could do with the tenth selection in the draft.

If the Patriots consider trading up in the first round of the NFL Draft, I think Washington’s No. 10 spot is a logical place as a starting point. The Redskins are without third- and fourth-round picks, and by moving down seven spots could replenish their mid-round supply.

New England's target could be wide receiver Julio Jones of Alabama or perhaps one of the several defensive ends who would be good fits in the the Patriots 3-4 defense. The Redskins, of course, could use Jones and some strengthening of their three-man DL as well. But, as Reiss suggests, they could sacrifice some degree of quality to bolster their draft pick quantity. If you use the NFL draft chart as a guideline, the tenth pick in the draft is worth 1,300 points while New England's pick, the 17th, is worth 950. The 350-point difference is equal to the 55th pick of the draft, the 23rd of the second round. The Patriots hold the 60th pick so that and maybe their fourth-round pick, the 125th, would work out just about right. Should the Redskins trade back and risk not getting a blue-chip impact player? Or is moving down to get some extra picks the smart move?

Will the Redskins get a compensatory draft pick?

The NFL will announce the order of the full NFL draft on Friday which means two things for those who follow the Washington Redskins. First, we will find out what pick, if any, the Redskins will get from the Colts in the trade for Justin Tryon. Most think it will be the Colts' seventh-round pick but we haven't been able to find out for sure.

Also, the compensatory picks will be announced. Those picks are supposed to serve as compensation for teams who lost players via free agency. You may have noticed that the Redskins did not have any players leave via free agency. All of the veteran players who departed were released. However, this does not mean that the Redskins will not get a comp pick. There are 32 of them awarded most years. If 32 teams do not qualify for picks under the super secret formula that the NFL uses to determine who gets them the extra selections, at the end of the seventh round, they apparently are distributed to teams in the original order of the draft.

So, if there are 10 extra comp picks to be awarded, the Redskins, who pick tenth, will get one. Unfortunately, internet legend AdamJT13, who has been predicting the compensatory picks with a high degree of accuracy for over a decade, has decided not to take on the task this year. I have been able to find one other blogger who is willing to take on the task of trying to figure out the comp picks. On SB Nation's Mocking the Draft, a writer who goes by ct17 applied AdamJT13's principles and came up with 21 compensatory picks. That leaves 11 extras meaning that the Redskins would pick up one freebie, the next to the last pick of the draft. That would be around pick number 255 or so, depending on if any picks are forfeited by teams in earlier rounds. Given that the Redskins need every draft pick they can get and that if the lockout still is in effect they, like every other NFL team, will be unable to sign undrafted players, that could be a small plus.

Success of draft will be determined on Saturday

If you want to see how successful the Redskins 2011 draft is going to be, watch on Saturday afternoon and then wait a few years.

Five of their seven picks will be made on Saturday during rounds five through seven. That being the case, if the Redskins are to have a successful draft they will have to get it done in the late rounds. It should be fairly easy to find a productive immediate starter either on offense or defense with their first round pick, the 10^th overall. And in the second round, the 41^st pick, there should be a player who can develop into a starter fairly quickly.

Go here to read the post on CSN Washington.

On Lunchbox Live with Wes Bunting

I'll be on Lunchbox Live today at noon sharp with Wes Bunting, draft guru for the National Football Post. If you have any questions for Wes, leave them in the comments here. We'll ask him the best questions during the show. Drop by CSNwashington.com at 12 noon to join in.

Von Miller a plaintiff in NFLPA lawsuit

Quarterbacks Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning are the best-known names among the eight current NFL players named as plaintiffs on the NFLPA's antitrust lawsuit against the National Football League. Other players, including Vincent Jackson and Logan Mankins, are well known by most fans of the game. Some, such as Ben Leber, aren't even household names in their own households. There is a ninth plaintiff, a "prospective professional football player" according to the filing. That player is known to most fans who keep up on the top players available in the upcoming NFL draft. That prospective professional football player is Texas A&M linebacker Von Miller. Miller is expected to be picked very early in the draft, probably in the top 10 selections. He is an athletic linebacker who can bring a lot of heat on the opposing quarterbacks. In what has become a passing league, such players are highly valued. Miller is included in the lawsuit to challenge the validity of the 2011 NFL draft as well as any rookie salary cap that the league may try to impose on the players drafted absent a collective bargaining agreement. While it may be courageous of Miller to join in the legal action, one has to wonder if it is the smartest career move for him. Joining a class action suit against your future employer before you are even hired has to be considered a risky move. If even one team decides not to select Miller because they don't want to try to draft and negotiate with a plaintiff or aren't particularly interested in hiring a rookie who may well be distracted by by legal proceedings he will lose millions of dollars. A slide further back could cost him tens of millions. No question that Miller will earn the gratitude of his future teammates and respect from the players around the league. But you can't spend gratitude and respect. Miller has chosen to risk a lot for what may be very little gain. Of course, that has been the theme of the whole CBA negotiation to date. Both sides in the dispute are taking high risks with the possibility of seeing very little in the way of a reward. The difference is that the owners and players like Brady and Manning already have cashed in. Miller has yet to make a dime from the NFL. Is Miller being courageous or foolhardy? Time will tell.

Contrasting views on QB Ryan Mallett

For much of December, there was a lot of talk about Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett going to the Washington Redskins with the tenth pick of the draft. He seemed to be an ideal NFL quarterback, 6-6 with a big, accurate arm. But then, after closer review, some glaring flaws in his game were identified. Primarily, he lacks, as Doug Farrar said in a pre-combine evaluation of Mallett, "functional mobility":

Conclusion: If there's one thing the two quarterbacks in Super Bowl XLV showed is, it's that the ability to beat pressure in a productive fashion is more important that it has ever been. In a lot of ways, Mallett is the anti-version of Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger, two star quarterbacks who have built estimable careers on their abilities to frustrate defenses no end by evading hits and hurries and consistently throwing for killer downfield gains. He's more the older-style quarterback (think Drew Bledsoe) with a great arm and a lack of modern-day skills around it.

Think of him as a statue with a cannon attached, and then ask yourself how well such a player would do against the 2010 defenses of Dick Lebeau and Rex Ryan. To be an elite NFL quarterback, Mallett will need a top-5 pass-blocking line, and there isn't much room for error there.

So much for Mallett being one of the top quarterbacks in the draft, right? Maybe, or maybe not. Sporting News Radio late-night host Todd Wright had draft scout Russ Lande as a guest earlier this week. In a series of tweets, Wright related what Lande told him about Mallett:

Our Sporting News NFL Draft scout Russ Lande told me this about Ryan Mallett, "People wonder about the maturity level, inconsistent play as well as his accuracy and decision making. Mallett makes bad decisions when you watch him on film. However, when he works out and showcases that big arm and physical ability, somebody's going to fall in love with him as their future NFL starting QB."

This does not necessarily mean, of course, that the Redskins would be interested. However, Mike Shanahan is known for drafting players based on their highlight reels, figuring that he and his coaches can fix any flaws in his game. At this point, I'd be very surprised if the Redskins take Mallett at No. 10. But things can change in a hurry. It's something that bears watching.

What teams might also be after Von Miller?

Among the players who caught the eye of just about everyone at the Senior Bowl was Texas A&M outside linebacker Von Miller. With the Redskins in need of a bookend backer to take some attention away from Brian Orakpo, Miller could be the perfect pick for the Redskins with their first-round selection, number in overall. But it seems likely that other teams will have their eyes on Miller, too, including some of the nine teams drafting ahead of the Redskins. One thing that the Redskins have going in their favor is that Miller is considered to be an ideal linebacker for a 3-4 defensive scheme. It’s not that a 4-3 team wouldn’t consider him but such a team likely would not rate him as highly as would a 3-4 team. In other words, he might not be a top-10 talent for 4-3 teams. Working on that assumption, let’s take a look at the defensive schemes run by the nine teams drafting in front of the Redskins: 1. Carolina (2-14) 4-3 2. Denver (4-12) 3-4 3. Buffalo (4-12) 3-4 4. Cincinnati (4-12) 4-3 5. Arizona (5-11) 3-4 6. Cleveland (5-11) 4-3 7. San Francisco (6-10) 3-4 8. Tennessee (6-10) 4-3 9. Dallas (6-10) 3-4 So let’s eliminate the 4-3 teams based on the assumptions made above. That leaves the following teams: 2. Denver (4-12) 3-4 3. Buffalo (4-12) 3-4 5. Arizona (5-11) 3-4 7. San Francisco (6-10) 3-4 9. Dallas (6-10) 3-4 Although there still is a long way to go in the draft process and a lot could change, it doesn’t appear right now that Miller is among the very top players, the elites who will go in the top four picks. That takes Denver and Buffalo out of the picture. 5. Arizona (5-11) 3-4 7. San Francisco (6-10) 3-4 9. Dallas (6-10) 3-4 The Cowboys seem to be pretty well set at outside linebacker with DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer and with needs along the offensive line and at defensive back Miller would be too much of a luxury pick for the top 10. 5. Arizona (5-11) 3-4 7. San Francisco (6-10) 3-4 The Cardinals certainly could use an infusion of youth at outside linebacker. Both of their starters, Clark Haggans and Joey Porter, will be 34 by the time the season starts and they combined for 10 sacks last year. It is possible that if Miller works his way into consideration for the number five pick the Cardinals could give him a good, hard look. The 49ers Manny Lawson is going to be a free agent this offseason so whether or not San Francisco will be in the market may depend on whether or not Lawson is back or if the CBA negotiations permit a free agency period prior to the draft. In any case, new coach Jim Harbaugh may want to look to upgrade from Lawson, who has been a first-round (22^nd overall in 2006) disappointment with 14.5 sacks in five seasons.