Rich Tandler's Real Redskins

Shanahan has been solid in late rounds

The Washington Redskins have 10 picks in rounds five four through seven in the third and final day of the NFL draft. Today Mike Shanahan, who will be orchestrating the process and who will have final say in who is selected, will hope that he continues the success he had finding productive players in the late rounds when he was with the Denver Broncos. From 1995 through 2008, Shanahan was either in charge of the Broncos’ 14 drafts or he had heavy influence. In that time Dener had 70 picks in rounds 4-7 and 39 of them have played 16 NFL games or more during their careers. Of those players, 23 were their team’s primary starter for at least one season, four made at least on Pro Bowl. Among the better players Shanahan drafted in the last four rounds are running back Terrell Davis (round 6) and Elvis Dumervil (4). That looks like a fairly solid performance but how does it compare with the rest of the league? With time not permitting an in-depth look at the other 31 teams’ drafts, let’s take a look at how Shanahan’s late-drafting prowess compares to that of four teams considered to be among the very best in the business when it comes to getting great results in the draft—the Patriots, Packers, Steelers, and Giants. The details are below, but for a quick comparison here is what those four teams have averaged in the past 14 drafts (1997-2010): Players drafted: 73 Played in 16 games or more: 38 At least one season as starter: 19 Made at least one Pro Bowl: 4 So, Shanahan with close to the same number of late-round players drafted as the four teams who are the gold standard for drafting (70 for Broncos, 73 average), had just about the same number of players who played in at least one season’s worth of games (39 Broncos, 38 average), did better when counting players who were their teams’ primary starters for at least one year (23 Broncos, 20 average) and found the same number of Pro Bowl as the average (4). The caveat here is that this is just a quick look further study would be needed to thoroughly evaluate how well Shanahan has drafted late compared to the rest of the league. But the surface analysis makes a good case that Shanahan’s performance compares favorably with the best in the busiess. Here are the details for the other four teams: Patriots last 14 drafts 78 picks in rounds 4-7,  41 who played 16 games or more, 17 who were their team’s primary starters for at least one season, six who made at least one Pro Bowl. Best picks Tom Brady (6), Assante Samuel (4) Green Bay last 14 drafts 79 picks in rounds 4-7, 47 who played in 16 games or more, 23 who started at least one season, five who made at least one Pro Bowl, five who made at least one Pro Bowl. Best picks Donald Driver (7), Aaron Kampman (5) Pittsburgh last 14 drafts, 71 picks in rounds 4-7, 29 who played in at least 16 games, 13 who were their teams primary starters for at least one season, two who made at least one Pro Bowl. Best picks Bret Keisel (7), Aaron Smith (4) New York Giants last 14 drafts, 63 picks in rounds 4-7, 35 who played in at least 16 games, 21 who were their team’s primary starter for at least one season, three who made at least one Pro Bowl. Best picks Brandon Jacobs (4), David Diehl (5) Join me today for the third and final day of my marathon NFL draft chat on CSNwashington.com. We'll get it going at about high noon.  

Draft chat tonight

OK, folks, about to go of the grid for a few hours as NY City approaches. Will pop in occasionally here and on the NFL Buzz Blog on CSN Washington. Don't forget 7:30 tonight, my draft chat live from Radio City Music Hall in New York.

NFL Buzz Blog on CSN

I'm going to be a little light on content here today as I get ready to go to New York tomorrow morning. I do have a continuously-updated blog going over on CSN Washington. Check out the NFL Buzz Blog right here. Tomorrow I have six hours to kill on the train and it would be fun to get some draft talk going via Twitter. Check back here in the morning for details. Thanks for reading and get ready for a wild ride on draft night!

Wes Bunting and Tandler talk Redskins draft needs

Thanks to Wes for dropping by the CSN Washington studios to chat abut the draft.

Will the Redskins jump over the Titans?

There is talk that the Titans have their eye on Jake Locker. If Locker is the Redskins' man, will they trade up to make sure they can get him? There is a way to make that happen. See the details here in the NFL Buzz Blog on CSNwashington.com. Not sure if it would be a good idea but it's there if they want to do it and it wouldn't completely wreck their draft.

Look for 2010 rules if lockout injunction stands

If Judge Susan Nelson's ruling ending the NFL lockout stands, expect the NFL to revert to the rules of the 2010 CBA. That would mean that there would be no salary cap and no salary floor, meaning that teams could collectively pay players as much or as little as they would like, although minimum salary rules would stay in place. Players would have to be in the league for a minimum of six years in order to be unrestricted free agents instead of four as has been the case. Players with four and five years of experience would be restricted free agents.

' Rogue Scout ' compares Locker to Favre

The on-again, off-again connection between the Jake Locker and the Washington Redskins appears to be moving closer to being on. While the Redskins' draft plans are shrouded in smoke and what can be seen is distorted by mirrors, more and more mock drafts by more and more analysts are starting to slot Locker to the Redskins with the 10th pick. This in no way means that the Locker pick is certain or even probable. But it certainly seems to be a growing possibility. While the need for a quarterback is clear, many Redskins fans have problems with Locker. The main thing that they and many scouts point out is his low completion percentage. He completed just 55 percent of his passes last year while throwing against college cornerbacks. One can only imagine what that projects to going against NFL defensive backs every week. However, one scout makes a strong case for Locker. He is not working for any teams right now, due at least in part for his willingness to take strong stands that go against the conventional wisdom. Dave Razzano is known as the "Rouge Scout" and he is high on Locker. In an article by Mike Silver of Yahoo! Sports, Razzano says that Locker reminds him of Bret Favre.

“Everybody says he’s inaccurate. He’s not – he throws a great ball! It’s a low-percentage offense. There’s never anybody open underneath, and he’s got no protection. You can see it if you look closely enough. People are stupid.

Perhaps things like punctuating his comments with things like "people are stupid" is why he doesn't work for a team now, but that's beside the point. On the Redskins official blog, Matt Terl pulls up Favre's and Locker's college stats and he does find a remarkable resemblance between them. You should read the whole article to see where Razzano is coming from and what players he has been right (and wrong) about. But Redskins fans should find the comments on Locker the most interesting. Here is how the article finishes up:

Watching Locker roll to his right and release the ball just before an oncoming pass rusher arrived, Razzano exclaimed, “Look, he puts his shoulder into it. Look! It’s just like Favre. If people can’t see that …” I could almost feel the Excitement Meter shaking with seismic abandon. Razzano paused the tape and continued: “My first exposure to Locker, watching a game on TV, I did not like what I saw. He threw errant passes and wasn’t very accurate. But then I saw the tape and realized it’s not him. He had more drops [by receivers] than anyone in the Pac-10, and he was running for his life – his line was probably the worst in the conference. And he still made plays with the game on the line. The guy’s a winner.” Razzano hit play on the remote and paced around the room as Locker faked a handoff, rolled to his left and threw a touchdown pass to a receiver in the middle of the end zone. “Look at him here,” Razzano said, “throwing against the grain …”

 

Lockout lifted, but maybe not for long

Judge Susan Nelson has issued an injunction, lifting the NFL lockout. The key phrase in her 89-page ruling was "the 'lockout' is enjoined." "The irreparable harm to the players outweighs any harm an injunction would cause the NFL," Nelson wrote further. Judge Nelson did not issue a stay, meaning that her injunction will go into effect immediately. However, the owners will ask for, and are expected to receive, a stay of the injunction Judge Nelson. If she does not grant one--and since she didn't grant one today she is not expected to change her mind tomorrow--the league will immediately request a stay from the 8th Circuit court. According to Roger Cossack on ESPN, the 8th circuit ruling on the appeal could come within a week. What would happen in the meantime remains to be seen. Update: Here is the NFL's statement on the ruling:

We will promptly seek a stay from Judge Nelson pending an expedited appeal to the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals. We believe that federal law bars injunctions in labor disputes. We are confident that the Eighth Circuit will agree.  But we also believe that this dispute will inevitably end with a collective bargaining agreement, which would be in the best interests of players, clubs and fans. We can reach a fair agreement only if we continue negotiations toward that goal.

There are reports that players' agents are attempting to determine whether or not they can report to team facilities as early as tomorrow. Some players have workout bonuses, some of them in the high six figures, at stake. If they can't work out at the facility, they can't collect on them. John Keim said via Twitter that Lorenzo Alexander informed hin via text that he would report to Redskins Park tomorrow morning. If a stay is not granted, free agency could begin soon, within days. It is possible that trades for players could be allowed during the draft. Under a lockout, free agency is frozen and player trades are not allowed. Trades of draft picks will be allowed regardless of the status of the lockout. Stay tuned for further details.

Record 25 players to attend NFL draft

Despite the threat of an NFLPA-inspired boycott, 25 players will be present for the NFL draft at Radio City Music Hall starting Thursday. Don't forget to join me here and at CSNwashington.com for coverage of the draft live from Radio City Music Hall in New York. My Marathon Draft Chat will start at about 7:30 on Thursday and be active for all 254 picks of the draft. Here are the players who will attend:

• Prince Amukamara CB Nebraska
• Corey Liuget DT Illinois
• Akeem Ayers LB UCLA
• Von Miller LB Texas A&M
• Adrian Clayborn DE Iowa
• Rahim Moore S UCLA
• Randall Cobb WR Kentucky
• Cam Newton QB Auburn
• Marcell Dareus DT Alabama
• Patrick Peterson CB Louisiana State
• Nick Fairley DT Auburn
• Mike Pouncey G/C Florida
• Blaine Gabbert QB Missouri
• Aldon Smith DE Missouri
• AJ Green WR Georgia
• Tyron Smith T Southern California
• Mark Herzlich LB Boston College
• Phil Taylor DT Baylor
• Mark Ingram RB Alabama
• Danny Watkins G Baylor
• Cameron Jordan DE California
• JJ Watt DE  Wisconsin
• Julio Jones WR Alabama
• Ryan Williams RB Virginia Tech
• Ryan Kerrigan DE Purdue

 

Help wanted sign will be out at Redskins Park

If not for the NFL lockout, the Washington Redskins could be contributing to substantially lowering the unemployment rate. NFL teams carry 80 players on the preseason roster. A count of the names currently on the roster comes up with 72 names. But there really aren't that many. The following 9 players are not under contract for 2011. Jamaal Brown H. B. Blades* Phillip Buchanon Reed Doughty* Rex Grossman Stephon Heyer* Rocky McIntosh Santana Moss Carlos Rogers *Could be restricted free agent depending on outcome of CBA negotiations Since their contracts expired when the league year ended on March 11 when the lockout began, they are not technically on the roster. So the Redskins have 63 players. But we need to subtract two more players. Donovan McNabb and Albert Haynesworth still are under contract and listed on the roster but most believe they are just awaiting the end of the lockout to be traded or released. That leaves 61 players on the de facto roster. The help wanted sign is out for almost 20 players. The Redskins have eight draft picks but they will not count on the roster until they sign contracts. They will be unable to sign undrafted college free agents as soon as the draft ends but that's a moot point. When there are minicamps for those players to participate in they will be able to sign the UDFA's. And, of course, when all of that happens, whether it's in May or in August, the veteran free agent market will be unfrozen and there will be more names added to the roster. Look for a lot of fast and furious action when things open up.