Rich Tandler's Real Redskins

Redskins second-round trade possibilities

There has been plenty of talk about the possibility of the Washington Redskins trading back their first-round draft pick, the tenth overall, in order to add additional selections later in the draft.

They may not be able to execute such a trade for a number of reasons. They have to find another team to deal with and that means that a player that the other team desperately wants has to be on the board. With nine teams picking in front of them a lot could happen to torpedo any deals that the Redskins may have worked out with potential trading partners. In addition, the Redskins might have a player who they have rated as a top-five talent fall to them at 10. With so many needs, it seems that virtually any of the top players could fit in and they might have to abandon any thoughts of moving down to take advantage of the value on the board. Being unable to move down in the first round, however, does not squash any chances that they may have of picking up additional picks in this draft or in a future draft. Their second-round pick, the 41st overall, could be quite attractive to another team that couldn't quite get what it wanted in the first round. Using the draft trade value chart (not always adhered to completely, but useful as a guideline) and some past history, we can take an educated guess at what the Redskins might be able to get in exchange for their second rounder. A first-round pick in 2012--This happens with some degree of frequency. Any pick in the following drafted traded one-for-one for a pick in the current draft is generally one round better. It seems unlikely that the Redskins would pull the trigger on such a deal unless they were pretty confident that the result would be a top-five pick. A later second and a third--If they drop back into the range of picks 20-30 (picks 52-62 overall) they could pick up a pick somewhere in the middle of the third round. The Chargers have multiple picks in the second and third round and while they don't have the exact picks that would make such a deal work they could make up the difference by swapping around some other later selections. With as many needs as the Redskins have they certainly could find a player who would represent good value a dozen or so slots back. A later second and a second next year--The same deal described above could be done with a second-rounder for next year as compensation instead of the 2010 third. This scenario might be a little more attractive than taking a first next year as it will not have the Redskins sitting out rounds two through four this year. A later second and a fourth--If there are six players or so who the Redskins would like when pick 41 rolls around, they could go back five or six spots and pick up a fourth-round pick. A later second and a fifth--Moving down three spots would still net the Redskins enough value to get another pick in the fifth round. Again, if there are a few players with whom they'd be happy there, why not trade back. It may be difficult to find a trade partner here but if the chips fall right and, say, the Lions at 44 want a player who they think theTexans or Vikings might take, they might spend the fifth to ensure that they can get their guy. Should the Redskins move back? Stand pat? Would would your draft strategy be?

Rams signaling they ' re willing to deal?

In an article on StLToday.com, Rams GM Billy Devaney was quoted as saying the following:

But chances are, we're going to stay right at 14, and we'll be fine. We have a really good feeling that there will be a couple of guys there that we'll be thrilled to have. It's probably not worth our while to give up picks to make a move to go get a particular guy.

In case you haven't noticed, this is lying season in the NFL. You can usually take what any GM or any other team official and expect the exact opposite. Here is the truth-serum version of what Devaney said:

Sure, we're willing to deal, up or down. But don't expect me to pay a premium to move up and don't even think about calling with a lowball offer if you want to me to move back.

Are you listening, Mike Shanahan? (h/t to @EvanSilva)

CSN Washington-Real Redskins draft coverage live from New York

I got word earlier this week that I'll be covering the NFL draft from where it's going to be happening, Radio City Music Hall in New York. Needless to say, I'm pumped up about this as it gives me the opportunity to bring you some great content both here and on CSNwashington.com. I'll be doing a live, running blog starting on Tuesday with all of the latest news and rumors. That will run every day through Sunday. We'll kick off a series of chats with the return of Tuesdays with Tandler from 6:00 to 7:00 on, of course, Tuesday. And then, from Radio City Music Hall, it's the return of a tradition unlike any other, the Marathon Draft Chat. It will run from the first pick on Thursday evening through the selection of Mr. Irrelevant late Saturday afternoon. Also, we should have the first interview with at least one newly-minted Redskin. That depends on whether or not the player decides to attend the festivities in New York or if they stay away for whatever reasons, NFLPA-related or otherwise. We also could get to chat with a second-round pick as it appears that there will be a good number of prospects who should be taken after the first round there. We'll have some other content as well, multimedia to bring you inside what's going on at Radio City Music Hall. By the way, if you're planning on going to the draft, I'd like to talk to you. Shoot me an email at RTandlerCSN@comcast.net. So during the draft turn on the tube, fire up the computer, and set one browser tab here on Real Redskins and another on CSNwashington.com. While the ESPN and NFL Network folks are yacking on about everything other than who is being selected and what deals are being made, I'll keep you right on top of it.

Redskins season prediction, game by game

It’s folly to try to predict the outcome of an NFL game five minutes before it’s played, much less several months before kickoff. It’s an even greater exercise in futility when we have had not free agency movement and the draft has yet to take place. In fact, some or all of these games might not be played thanks to the labor situation. But an air of folly and futility never has stopped us here, so here we got with our annual way-too-early Redskins game by game predictions. Sept. 11, Giants—This is karma tester right off the bat. The Giants have had the Redskins’ number for years; in fact, the Redskins rarely are even competitive with the G-men. Although the atmosphere at FedEx Field will be emotional with a pregame 9/11 tribute, the result on the field will be business as usual. Giants 24, Redskins 10, Redskins 0-1 Sept. 18, Arizona—The Cardinals are set everywhere but at the most important position—quarterback. If they can find an answer there they will be tough to beat. But the Redskins usually find a way to beat them at home. Rex Grossman posts his first win of the 2011 season. Redskins 14, Cardinal 13, 1-1 Sept. 26, @Dallas—The Redskins nearly beat Dallas in Jerry’s Palace last year with Rex Grossman at the helm, but the Cowboys were without Tony Romo. This is the Redskins’ only scheduled prime time appearance of the year but Skins fans across the country probably won’t have much to get excited about. Cowboys 24, Redskins 13, 1-2. Oct. 2, @Rams—Sam Bradford was tough for the Redskins to contain at the Edward Jones Dome last year and this year the Rams might actually get him some targets to throw to. Jim Haslett should have him figured out this time around. Redskins 21, Rams 14, 2-2 Oct. 9, Bye—Can I officially be the first to make the tired, lame old joke that the bye will be a four-point favorite? Oct. 16 Eagles—Well, they hung 59 on the Redskins the last time they came to FedEx. Even if they Redskins can cut that total in half, they will have a tough time beating Michael Vick and company. Eagles 28, Redskins 17, 2-3 Oct. 23 @Panthers—Cam Newton should be starting by this time. In what is either a statistical quirk or an ugly record of ineptitude (probably some of each), the Redskins are on an 0-7 skid in games they have played in which a true rookie signal caller started for the opposition. The Redskins, however, have had the Panthers’ number for the most part and the streak vs. rooks ends here. Redskins 14, Panthers 10, 3-3 Oc. 30, vs. Bills in Toronto—The Redskins’ first international regular-season excursion pits them against an AFC team on the rise. This has the potential to be a good game, although the prospect of Ryan Fitzpatrick out-dueling Rex Grossman will not make national headlines. Bills 28, Redskins 24, 3-4 Nov. 6, 49ers—Even though they are starting over in some respects with a new coach in Jim Harbaugh and possibly a new quarterback, the 49ers do have some very good players. This is a tough one to call but the Niners come out on top. 49ers 23, Redskins 17, 3-5 Nov. 13, @Dolphins—A battle of two-time Super Bowl opponents who are far, far removed from their glory days. At least the Redskins won’t have to go to the tropics in the heat of September and early October. Still, Miami is a little further along in the rebuilding process than the Redskins are. Dolphins 17, Redskins 10 3-6 Nov. 20, Cowboys—Hey, maybe this Ponder kid has something. He makes the Cowboys defense look silly as he throws for three touchdowns. Redskins 28, Cowboys 17, 4-6 Nov. 27, @Seahawks—Even though the Seahawks made the playoffs with a losing record, Qwest Field is a tough place to play. Just ask the Saints. With rookie quarterback Christian Ponder at the helm, however, the Redskins build up an early lead and hang on. Redskins 24, Seahawks 21, 5-6 Dec. 4, Jets—It says here that Rex Ryan and Mike Shanahan are really the same person in terms of confidence; Rex just lacks the filter between the brain and the mouth that Shanahan has fully engaged at all times. But they’re talking about Ponder after this one as he doesn’t know enough to get confused by Ryan’s defense. Redskins 24, Jets 17, 6-6 Dec. 11, Patriots—Can Mike Shanahan beat Bill Belichick at FedEx Field just like Steve Spurrier beat him in 2003? Well, maybe but in matching up Ponder with Tom Brady, Shanny is bringing a knife to a gunfight. The rookie comes crashing back to earth with a four-pick game. Patriots 35, Redskins 10, 6-7 Dec. 18, @Giants—Ponder fever is officially over as the rookie is pulled at halftime after getting sacked six times. Rex isn’t much better as he throws two interceptions, one of which is returned for the clinching touchdown. Giants 24, Redskins 10, 6-8 Dec. 24, Vikings—Will this be the return of Donovan? If it is, we will really know if the karma of this franchise has changed. If McNabb comes into FedEx and wins, it will be business as usual. If the Redskins win, maybe things really are turning around. Things do turn around some as McNabb plays Santa Claus and throws a late interception to set up a game-winning field goal in overtime. Redskins 20, Vikings 17 (OT), Redskins 7-8 Jan 1, 2012, @Eagles—With Vick on injured reserve, the Eagles need to pull out this one to have a shot at a Wild Card playoff spot. The Redskins, with Ponder back at quarterback, put up a battle but they can’t quite pull it out as a phantom holding call wipes out the go-ahead touchdown pass in the final minutes. Eagles 17, Redskins 13, final record 7-9  

Report: Mallett skips visit after night on the town

According to a report by Brad Biggs of the National Football Post, Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett blew off a meeting with the Carolina Panthers after having spent a night on the town. He called and told the Panthers that he was sick. But according to Briggs there are reports of him having been out on the town late the night before the meeting was scheduled. Mallett is considered to be one of the most talented quarterbacks in the draft but character issues have dogged him and seem to be affecting his draft stock. If this was an isolated incident, it might not be as damaging to Mallett. But there are reports that he admitted to recreational drug use during some interviews and he was arrested for public intoxication in 2009.  

Giants at Redskins to open season?

It always seems like the New York teams get good leaks about the NFL schedule before it's released. And here is one such leak involving the Redskins from Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) of the Newark Star-Ledger

Oh and btw Giants-Redskins to open the season in Landover. Fitting because it commemorates both NY and DC on 9/11. Nice job by NFL. #nyg

Update: Go here to see the entire NYG schedule, including the rematch with the Redskins in the Meadowlands on Dec. 18.

Shanahan should be happy with pre-draft buzz

 

[caption id="attachment_5657" align="aligncenter" width="250" caption="Dalton's TCU team was undefeated in 2010"][/caption] It is unlikely that Mike Shanahan has much time these days to see what is being said about the Washington Redskins on the internet. But if he did, he'd be smiling. On Friday, we talked about John McClain of the Houston Chronicle reporting that he has heard a great deal of buzz about the possibility of the Redskins trading up in the first round to get a quarterback, presumably Blaine Gabbert, early in the round. Then yesterday came the following from another highly-connected NFL scribe, Pete Prisco of CBS Sports:

According to a league source, the Redskins are looking to trade down in the first round with the idea they will draft either Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder or TCU quarterback Andy Dalton. The Redskins, who pick 10th overall, would like to get a second-round pick from a team in exchange for moving back to their spot in the first round. They could then use their two second-round picks to bolster the defense.

So one well-wired writer says that they're moving up. Another says that they're hell bent on trading down. There is supposed to be interest in Gabbert. The Redskins' interest in Ponder has been known for a while but Dalton, who has visited Redskins Park, is a relatively new name to the mix. Add in Shanahan's longtime infatuation with Jake Locker and you have a bevy of potential quarterback targets for the Redskins. In other words, nobody has any idea what is going on. Matt Terl at the Redskins official blog counted 29 different players being tabbed as the Redskins' first-round selection. This is partially due to the fact that the Redskins have so many needs that you could justify a pick at almost any position. But it also means that the Redskins' smoke-producing machine is cranked up in high gear and is having its intended effect. Does all of the smoke have you confused? What do you think the Redskins will do?

Redskins could trade up for QB Gabbert

There is a lot of, well, stuff floating around these days as we are less than two weeks away from the NFL draft. You hear that just about every team wants this player or that one and wants to trade up or down. I literally could spend all day on the keyboard pounding out the latest rumors being floated around. Certain reports, however, make me stop what I'm doing and take notice.

John McClain of the Houston Chronicle is one of the best and most respected NFL reporters out there. He doesn't just make stuff up or pass along something that he overheard one guy say or anything like that. He's old school and he's going to be pretty sure about something before he reports it. So, when I saw this tidbit I, as noted above, stopped what I was doing and took notice:

I don't know what they have to offer, but I hear the Redskins are trying like crazy to trade up to get one of the quarterbacks, Blaine Gabbert, I imagine.

This, of course, has all of the elements of the smoke that was discussed here earlier this week. And I'm passing it along only because of who wrote it. But let's assume for a moment that it's true and the Redskins are hell bent on putting Blaine Gabbert in burgundy and gold. What would it take for the Redskins to trade up from tenth overall to a position where they would have a reasonable shot at Gabbert?

The fourth pick could be a good spot from which to pluck Gabbert. If, as predicted, the Panthers take Cam Newton first overall and the Broncos and Bills address other needs, Gabbert could be there when the Bengals draft with the fourth pick. Of course, there is no guarantee that John Elway is happy with Tim Tebow or that the Bills will stick with Ryan Fitzpatrick or that the Bengals won't prepare for life without Carson Palmer.

But, for the purposes of the exercise here, let's assume that Gabbert is available in the fourth slot and that the Redskins want to go get him. According to the draft value chart, the fourth pick is worth 1,800 points and the tenth is worth 1,300. The 500-point difference is the value of the 40th pick in the draft. The Redskins hold the 41st pick, so one would think that perhaps one of their seventh-rounders to make up the difference might get the deal done. This doesn't mean that it would be a good idea. In fact, I'm sure that it is just unanimous that it would be a terrible idea. But, in answer to McClain's query about what they have to offer, there's the answer.

What do you think? Should the Redskins trade up to get their QB of the future? More importantly, will they?

Redskins could trade up for QB Gabbert

There is a lot of, well, stuff floating around these days as we are less than two weeks away from the NFL draft. You hear that just about every team wants this player or that one and wants to trade up or down. I literally could spend all day on the keyboard pounding out the latest rumors being floated around. Certain reports, however, make me stop what I'm doing and take notice. John McClain of the Houston Chronicle is one of the best and most respected NFL reporters out there. He doesn't just make stuff up or pass along something that he overheard one guy say or anything like that. He's old school and he's going to be pretty sure about something before he reports it. So, when I saw this tidbit I, as noted above, stopped what I was doing and took notice:

I don't know what they have to offer, but I hear the Redskins are trying like crazy to trade up to get one of the quarterbacks, Blaine Gabbert, I imagine.

This, of course, has all of the elements of the smoke that was discussed here earlier this week. And I'm passing it along only because of who wrote it. But let's assume for a moment that it's true and the Redskins are hell bent on putting Blaine Gabbert in burgundy and gold. What would it take for the Redskins to trade up from tenth overall to a position where they would have a reasonable shot at Gabbert? The fourth pick could be a good spot from which to pluck Gabbert. If, as predicted, the Panthers take Cam Newton first overall and the Broncos and Bills address other needs, Gabbert could be there when the Bengals draft with the fourth pick. Of course, there is no guarantee that John Elway is happy with Tim Tebow or that the Bills will stick with Ryan Fitzpatrick or that the Bengals will prepare for life without Carson Palmer. But, for the purposes of the exercise here, let's assume that Gabbert is available in the fourth slot and that the Redskins want to go get him. According to the draft value chart, the fourth pick is worth 1,800 points and the tenth is worth 1,300. The 500-point difference is the value of the 40th pick in the draft. The Redskins hold the 41st pick, so one would think that perhaps one of their seventh-rounders to make up the difference might get the deal done. This doesn't mean that it would be a good idea. In fact, I'm sure that it is just unanimous that it would be a terrible idea. But, in answer to McClain's query about what they have to offer, there's the answer. What do you think? Should the Redskins trade up to get their QB of the future? More importantly, will they?

A double deal for the Redskins?

[caption id="attachment_5631" align="aligncenter" width="245" caption="Jake Locker"][/caption] The Washington Redskins face a dilemma. They are in need of a quarterback of the future and it seems likely that they would like to obtain that quarterback in the upcoming NFL draft. However, the draft board does not seem to line up in favor of the Redskins being able to select a quality signal caller. The top two prospects, Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert, are likely to be gone by the time the Redskins initial pick, the tenth overall, rolls around. It would be a major reach for the Redskins to take one of the second-tier quarterbacks on the board, players such as Jake Locker and Christian Ponder, at that point. However, when the Redskins' next turn comes up in the second round, the 41st pick, other quarterback-needy teams may have snapped up the other more desirable signal callers. There is a possible solution to this thorny situation. The Redskins could pull off a double deal, moving back their first-round pick to pick up some additional picks that they could use to improve their second-round pick. Here is one way such a deal could play out. The Redskins trade back with the Rams, who have the 14th overall pick and are said to covet Alabama wide receiver Julio Jones. If you go by the draft value chart as a guideline (although some teams look at it and some ignore it, most pick for pick trades come close to matching the chart values), there is a 200-point difference between picks 10 and 14. That just so happens to be the value of pick number 78, the Rams' third-round pick. Should the deal be made some other, later picks could change hands but for now we'll focus on the third-round pick. (Note: Making that trade with the Rams has been discussed here previously.) The Redskins do not have a third-rounder so they certainly could use that pick for a player who could contribute in 2011. Or they could use it to move up their second-round pick and perhaps get a quarterback. The 41st pick is worth 490 points so you add that to the 200-point third-rounder to get 690, or about the value of the 27th pick. That belongs to the Falcons. The Redskins could take their second and their newly-acquired third and package them to move up to get a second first-round pick and take Locker or Ponder or whichever second-tier quarterback might fit into their plans. If Atlanta doesn't want to deal, perhaps the Patriots, picking 28th and frequently willing to trade back for extra picks, will pull the trigger. Or if the Redskins think that the Seahawks, drafting 25th, might have their eyes on a signal call who they covet, the Redskins could package that second, the just-acquired third, and one of their two fifths and deal them to the Saints for the 24th pick. There are other potential trade partners for both the first and second parts of this scenario. But it could be a way for the Redskins to still get a very good player with their first pick and to fill the quarterback hole in one night. What do you think? Should the Redskins do something like this if the opportunity presents itself? Should they stand pat? Or should the use any picks acquired by trading back to draft players, not trade up? Let us know in the comments.