Rich Tandler's Real Redskins

Separating the smoke from the fire

From the Real Redskins archives, April, 2005 Baseball has its Hot Stove League. NASCAR has what’s called Silly Season. The NFL doesn’t have a catchy name for the annual barrage of chatter that happens every year in the few weeks prior to its annual selection meeting, but it’s just as hot and just as silly nonetheless. Remember, back in the day, that cloud of hazy smoke that would hang over an event such as a Grateful Dead concert? The atmosphere around the NFL draft is beginning to resemble something just that whacky. There are a few reasons for all of the buzz other than the immense popularity of the NFL and the intense interest in the draft. One of the very nature of NFL draft deals. While some are completed in advance of the draft, most are made while one of the teams involved is on the clock. It’s not until then that the teams involved know exactly what they’re trading. Due to the necessity that deals be conducted at the last minute, there is nothing concrete in the days leading up to the draft. In the place of hard news are reports from anonymous team and league sources, speculation and some stuff that was just made up. Of course, the Internet increases both the number of rumors making the rounds and the speed at which the stories travel exponentially. What used to be speculation being chewed over by a few guys enjoying a cold one after work is now spread to hundreds if not thousands in course of an evening. On top of that, there’s the constant pressure for the major sports Websites such as ESPN.com and CBS Sportsline to come up with new content—something posted three or four hours ago is sometimes considered old news. The compressed news cycle demands that stories be published before they’re fully developed. This leads to an increase in the quantity of stories and a decrease in the quality of them. Speaking of low quality, there are also dozens of self-declared draft “experts” with their own Websites out there. At best they serve up rehashes of other reports; at worst they engage in sheer, uninformed speculation and rumormongering. To be sure, there was no shortage of smoke being blown by NFL teams prior to the advent of the Internet. Back when the World Wide Web was just a gleam in Al Gore’s eye, Redskins GM Bobby Beathard would annually dole out vast amounts false information to the media. In fact, a good way to figure out who the Redskins would draft would be to take a list of prospects and cross off the name of any player that Beathard mentioned in public. Whoever was left had a shot at being picked. In fact, a search of the Post’s archives reveals not one instance of Beathard being quoted uttering the name “Darrell Green” in the weeks prior to the 1983 draft. Green, of course was the Redskins’ first-round selection. The smoke will be everywhere between now and the draft. And, just like at that Dead concert, be careful of how much of that smoke you take in. In both cases it can lead to faulty judgment.

How big a need is running back?

This is continuing along the luxury/necessity theme that we've been visiting here. Can the Redskins roll just fine at running back with Ryan Torain, Keiland [caption id="attachment_5620" align="alignright" width="100" caption="Ryan Williams"][/caption] Williams, and maybe a veteran free agent or a late-round draft pick? Or if a running back like Ryan Williams (right) is the top player on their draft board in the second round should they pull the trigger? Ryan O'Halloran and I debate the question in our weekly installment of Point-Counterpoint.

Go here to read the article on CSN Washington.

 

Defining luxury in the draft

The article I wrote last Thursday about whether or not Julio Jones would be a “luxury” pick for the Redskins, as John Keim quoted an NFL GM as saying, got a reaction that brings up questions beyond the wisdom of selecting Jones with the tenth overall pick in the draft. First of all, just to make it clear, the view here is that the Redskins should take the top player on their draft board with the tenth pick. If that happens to be Julio Jones, so be it. They should not either reach for someone like Jones nor should they bypass him if he is the best player on their board. The discussion about Jones brought out two main issues. One is the importance of the wide receiver position. I’m not quite sure why adding a quality player at that position could be considered a luxury. Just look at the numbers. The Redskins passed on about 65 percent of their plays last year. While that’s probably more than Mike Shanahan wanted to pass, the league average is around 60 percent and the Redskins probably won’t throw much less than that going forward. And they line up with at least two and frequently three or even four wide receivers on each snap. That means that there are anywhere from 18 to 36 percent of the players on the field having a major impact on about 60 percent of the plays. Somebody who is smarter than I am probably could work up an index to figure out the importance of having quality players at the wide receiver spot based on those numbers. But it seems to me that the impact of the position is pretty substantial. Again, I don’t know if Jones is the best pick or if he isn’t. But, as I pointed out in the original article, it’s impossible to make the case that the wide receiver position isn’t in great need of an upgrade and it’s hard to make the case that the position is somehow less important than other areas of need. The second issue was best summed up in a tweet by my friend @fatpickled.

love Jones size/athletisism, but WR's generally take 3 yrs 2 have an impact.

This echoes comments that I have heard over the past few months from people saying that the Redskins need to draft a position that provides an immediate impact, perhaps a lineman on either side of the ball or linebacker. But many of those same people figure that it will take two or three years at a minimum for the Redskins to be serious playoff contenders. If that is the case, then why not get the players in the positions that take the longest to develop, like wide receiver and quarterback, in the house now and get the learning process starting? What is the sense in taking a few years to build up the lines if you then have to take a few more years to get the skill positions up to snuff? This goes back to what I’ve been saying about Redskins fans for a few months. Many of them say that they realize that rebuilding the team will take [caption id="attachment_5617" align="alignleft" width="150" caption="Graham gano"][/caption] some time. However, they will raise holy hell over the actual steps of rebuilding, like possibly letting the 32-year-old Santana Moss walk in free agency or suffering through the growing pains of young players like Graham Gano or, in this case, executing a high draft pick that might not pay immediate dividends. In short, they are in favor of Shanahan rebuilding “the right way” as long as that way is their way and as long as it happens in a hurry. So, which is it, folks? Rebuild so it will last a while? Or make your moves with paying off immediately? It's not impossible to do both but should Shanahan not draft the best player on the team's draft board because it might take him two or three years to become truly effective? What do you think? Hit the comments below and let us know.  

Redskins free agency: Defensive backs

Court today, free agency tomorrow?

It's possible--but highly unlikely--that the NFL could resume normal offseason activities sometime this week, perhaps as soon as tomorrow. The NFL and the NFLPA square off in court today and a quick resolution is one of several possible outcomes that I discuss on CSN Washington this morning.

Go here to read the article on CSN Washington.

What do you think? Will the free agency floodgates be opened anytime soon? Or will this drag through the legal system all summer?  

Point-Counterpoint--Let Carlos walk?

[caption id="attachment_5597" align="aligncenter" width="300" caption="See, he catches the ball sometimes"][/caption]

Other than anyone playing the quarterback position, no Redskins player generates as much polarizing discussion as cornerback Carlos Rogers. Some--I would say most--are so anxious to get the free agent to be out of town that they would help him pack his house and drive the moving van to his new home. Others are concerned about another hole being blown in the defense if Rogers departs. Ryan O'Halloran and I debated this in our weekly installment of Point-Counterpoint:

Rich Tandler: I’m not one of those who gets on Carlos about his hands of stone. I’ve always said that you drop a potential interception, you were in the right place at the right time. Rogers is not a shutdown corner but he’s a very good one. Still, he’s going to be 30 before the season starts and a team that is looking to rebuild and get younger should think long and hard before signing a cornerback who is that age to what will be a pricey deal

Go here to read the article on CSN Washington.

What do you think? Should the Redskins let Rogers walk? Or do what it takes to keep him and address the myriad of other needs in the draft and free agency.  

How I won some of Jim Irsay ' s money

[caption id="attachment_5589" align="aligncenter" width="300" caption="@JimIrsay"][/caption] Before the Super Bowl, I wrote an article letting people know that following Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay could be both fun and profitable. I've had a lot of fun trying to decipher his rock lyrics, which appear in his Twitter feed at all hours of the day and night. On Monday night, I got to the profitable part. I was waiting for the national championship game  between Connecticut and Butler to begin when I saw Irsay throw out a trivia challenge which, again, is something that I see him do at all hours of the day and night. Here was the question:

Riddle- The forrest is full of diamonds...name the song and former Colt player I'm thinking about,remembering the color of my heart 2nite For $500 and Real NFL football...1rst on tweetwall wins...Go Butler!!!!

I knew from seeing tweets from Irsay during the NCAA tournament that he is a Butler basketball fan, which is logical given the Indianapolis connection. The Bulldogs' color is blue. The first part of the answer was easy. It was a song by Neil Diamond that had the color blue in the title. That would be Song Sung Blue, a rather catchy if nondescript and somewhat cheesy 1972 tune that is probably a favorite of lounge singers in Holiday Inns across the country. I vaguely remembered a player named Blue having played for the Colts but I couldn't remember a first name to save my life. That sent me to Pro-Football-Reference.com, a site I use multiple times daily for research. I typed "Blue" into the search box and worked my way up the list of Tony, Luther, Greg and, finally, Forrest. He was an offensive lineman our of Auburn who played for the Baltimore Colts from 1975-1978. I didn't get the first part of the clue, the part about "forrest full of diamonds" until then. I replied to @JimIrsay, typed in the answer, and hit send about five minutes after Irsay had posted the question. I was pretty sure that I was right, I just didn't know if I was the first of his 34,593 followers to tweet it. At halftime, Irsay tweeted and it confirmed that I did indeed have the right answer:

1)Song Sung Blue/Neil Diamond 2) Forrest Blue..Correct answer,who's 1rst Abby...U sober?

I believe that Abby is his assistant who handles social media matters. I barely made it to the end of the basketball game with my eyes open (I was shutting them earlier to avert my gaze from some ugly hoops). When I got up this morning, I checked my replies and, sure enough, I had the first correct answer:

The 1rst to post tonight's riddle answer was @RealRedskins. Congrats! Abby, the game is over...get to work!!!!

And there was a direct message to me with instructions on how to claim the money and the football. Five hundred bucks isn't life-changing money or anything but not bad for a couple of minutes of research and an uncanny ability to remember cheesy 70's music lyrics.

A logical trade back partner for the Redskins

Last week, Mike Reiss of ESPN Boston came up with a possible use for the Redskins' first-round draft pick that I found to be preposterous. Today, Reiss has a more reasonable and believable notion of what Mike Shanahan could do with the tenth selection in the draft.

If the Patriots consider trading up in the first round of the NFL Draft, I think Washington’s No. 10 spot is a logical place as a starting point. The Redskins are without third- and fourth-round picks, and by moving down seven spots could replenish their mid-round supply.

New England's target could be wide receiver Julio Jones of Alabama or perhaps one of the several defensive ends who would be good fits in the the Patriots 3-4 defense. The Redskins, of course, could use Jones and some strengthening of their three-man DL as well. But, as Reiss suggests, they could sacrifice some degree of quality to bolster their draft pick quantity. If you use the NFL draft chart as a guideline, the tenth pick in the draft is worth 1,300 points while New England's pick, the 17th, is worth 950. The 350-point difference is equal to the 55th pick of the draft, the 23rd of the second round. The Patriots hold the 60th pick so that and maybe their fourth-round pick, the 125th, would work out just about right. Should the Redskins trade back and risk not getting a blue-chip impact player? Or is moving down to get some extra picks the smart move?

McNabb to the Vikings?

At least one prominent NFL scribe thinks that McNabb to the Twin Cities still makes sense despite the fact that Childress was fired last season and Leslie Frazier is now the Vikings' head coach. In his Monday Morning Quarterback article today, Peter King of Sports Illustrated wrote the following:

I think the team that makes the most sense for Donovan McNabb is Minnesota . . . The Vikings can sleep better at night knowing they don't have to rely on Joe Webb with a suspect offensive line and a veteran defense as they try to make one last playoff run with this core. McNabb can be happy knowing he has one more chance to take a contender deep into the playoffs.

It's important to note here that this is just King's opinion here. He does not cite any sources that say that this is a possibility. King suggests that the compensation could be a 2012 fourth-round pick that would elevate to a third if McNabb made 12 starts for the Vikings in 2011. In the same article, King says that the odds are against the lockout ending before the 2011 draft so any picks that the Redskins were to acquire for McNabb would have to be in later years. If I'm Mike Shanahan, I seriously consider this deal. Maybe the Redskins can squeeze a third that could upgrade to a second if McNabb and the team meet certain incentives. The Vikings are looking for a new stadium deal and it could be difficult to pull that off if Webb is at the helm and the team tanks. What do you think? Is McNabb a good fit in Minnesota? Given the scarcity of QB's on the market, is a conditional third-fourth enough?