Rich Tandler's Real Redskins

What to watch for in the draft tonight

What should you look for in the draft leading up to the Redskins’ third-round pick, the 69th overall selection? 

First, look for the live chat we’ll be having right here tonight from 7:00 to 8:00. We can talk about what’s coming up and what the Redskins should do and, yes, we can talk about RG3 a bit should he turn out to be a popular subject.

OK, end of shameless plug. I think that most agree, Mike Shanahan’s possible smokescreen notwithstanding, that the Redskins biggest need going in is at right tackle. Certainly Shanahan and company can see that, too. But that does not necessarily mean that they will take one in the third.

If they are going to take a player there, they want to have someone who has a reasonable chance of becoming a starter or at least becoming a rock solid backup. If no tackle fits that description they need to look at a position of lesser need.

Ah, but only two offensive tackles, Matt Kalil and Riley Reiff, were taken in the first round when many mock drafts had four or even five going on the first night. Shouldn’t that mean that there should be plenty of quality tackles for the Redskins to choose from with the 69th pick?

Maybe. What you have to look for is a run on offensive tackles at some point during the second round. It is expected that players like Jonathan Martin and Cordy Glenn will go fairly early in the second round. 

But if names like Bobby Massie, Jeff Allen, and Zebrie Sanders start to come off of the board, the chances of the Redskins being able to get an eventual Jammal Brown replacement in the third round will start to look dim. And if teams are reach for the likes of Donald Stephenson and Tom Crompton late in the third round, start to check your personal draft board for other positions because the Redskins aren’t going to take a fifth-round tackle in the third round.

In fact, a run on tackles could precipitate a trade up by the Redskins if they want a player badly enough to use one or both of their fourth-round picks to move up. If Massie and Sanders go off of the board in the earlier part of the second round, look for the possibility of the Redskins bundling some picks to move up and get their man.

If the tackles go early and the Redskins don’t move up, look for a cornerback to be the pick. That and wide receiver are the two deepest positions in the draft and since CB is a greater need that would seem to be the best bet.

Rich Tandler blogs about the Redskins at www.RealRedskins.com. You can reach him by email at RTandlerCSN@comcast.net and follow him on Twitter @Rich_Tandler.

RG3 says he'll be the worst in the NFL

In 2008, Redskins head coach Jim Zorn declared himself to be “the worst coach in America” after the 1-11-1 Bengals became the 2-11-1 Bengals at Zorn’s expense.

Now the Redskins are about to draft a player who says that he will immediately become one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL.

The quarterback, of course, is Robert Griffin III and while Zorn made his worst-in-America statement when he was down in the dumps, Griffin is merely facing reality. After winning the Heisman and getting all of the media attention and all of the accolades over the past few months, he knows that all of that is going to get him absolutely nothing when he becomes a professional football player.

Here is what he told the Washington Post:

“As of Thursday as of 8 and 8:10 [p.m.], me and Andrew [Luck] are two of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. There’s Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Eli, I could go on for days – sorry if I didn’t mention you; don’t be mad. They’re great quarterbacks and we’re back at the bottom of the totem pole. Maybe we won’t be the worst, but by no means are we 1-2. We know that we have to compete.”

This is exactly in harmony with what Mike Shanahan was talking about at his press conference yesterday, that what happens tonight is a part of the process of getting a franchise quarterback, not the end of it. 

 

Smoking is permitted during the draft

Even though the Redskins’ first pick is spoken for and they don’t have a second-rounder, Mike Shanahan can still have some fun throwing out smokescreens regarding the NFL draft.

We may have seen a classic one on Wednesday. While answering a question about drafting for need, Shanahan volunteered some information about right tackle Jammal Brown.

“Right now I feel better about Jammal Brown than I have at any time since I’ve been here,” he said. “That hip that he’s had that tear on looks better than it’s ever looked.”

Brown has been the Redskins’ staring right tackle for the past two seasons. His hip injury, which caused him to miss the entire 2009 season when he was with the Saints, has forced him to miss five starts and has clearly hampered his play when he has been in there.

Shanahan also mentioned options at the position such as Tyler Polumbus, who filled in at a few different line spots last year, and James Lee, who the team signed as a free agent earlier this month. 

Given the context of the discussion of Brown, in the midst of talking about draft needs, it would be easy to think that the Redskins have no intention of drafting someone to play right tackle. According to Shanahan, they have a healthy former Pro Bowler in Brown and two other experienced options.

Of course, they could have every intention of taking an tackle in the middle rounds. There is are many reasons to discount the words of Shanahan or any other NFL coach less than 36 hours before the draft, especially if the information is volunteered. 

Shanahan's draft history: Quarterback

On Thursday, the Redskins will make the draft pick that will shape the course of their franchise for the next several years, probably longer, when they take quarterback Robert Griffin III with the second overall pick in the draft. Is there good reason to think that Shanahan can pick quarterbacks? Can Redskins fans be confident that the two first-round picks and the second expended to move up to take RG3 will be well spent? A look at his past might reveal a glimpse of how this decision might turn out.

 Shanahan has been the primary talent selector in 15 drafts with the Denver Broncos (1995-2008) and for two with the Redskins (2010-11). How well has he performed?

Over the past few days, we have been breaking down Shanahan’s drafts position by position. If the past is prelude, maybe we can learn something about where he might go in the draft that starts on Thursday and how much success the players drafted might have going forward.

Previously: Linebackers, wide receivers, defensive backs

Best pick

The relatively brief career of Jay Cutler has seen some ups and downs since Shanahan moved up to draft him with the 11^th overall pick in 2006. After being put into the starting lineup for the last five games of his rookie season, Cutler made his way to the Pro Bowl in 2008 by throwing for over 4500 yards. Then came the coaching change, the trade to Chicago and Cutler becoming a turnover machine in 2009, throwing 26 interceptions. After a rocky start in 2010, the Bears won the NFC North and made the conference title game. That up ended on a down note as Cutler sat out most of the second half and had his toughness questioned. At age 28, there are more chapters to be written in his career. Cutler clearly has talent and we will see how he handles the mental side of it. 

Good picks

Shanahan got some decent production out of Brian Griese. He was put in the unenviable spot of being the guy who replaced the legend when he took over as the starter after John Elway retired following Denver’s second straight Super Bowl win in 1998. The Broncos went 27-24 in Griese’s 51 starts over four seasons. He made the Pro Bowl following the 2000 season.

Worst pick

Besides Griese and Cutler, the only other quarterback Shanahan has drafted with a top 100 pick was Jeff Lewis, taken with pick 100 in the fourth round in 1996. Playing behind Elway and Gary Kubiak, Lewis saw very limited action and was released after the 1997 season. That is hardly a disaster but you’d like to get a bit more out of a top-100 pick.

Bad picks

The other three quarterbacks Shanahan has drafted all were taken in the seventh round and they only are listed as bad picks because none of them turned out to be a diamond in the rough. Jarious Jackson (2000), Bradlee Van Pelt (2004) and Matt Mauck (2004) combined to play in 11 NFL games, mostly in mop up duty.

The nitty-gritty 

Total quarterbacks drafted drafted: 6
NFL games played: 184
Seasons as a starter: 9
Pro Bowls: 2—Jay Cutler 2008, Brian Griese 2000
Games played, seasons as starter and Pro Bowls are for player’s career with all teams.

Rounds/Players

1. 1—Jay Cutler (11 overall) 2006
2. None
3. 1—Brian Griese (91) 1998
4. 1—Jeff Lewis (100) 1996
5. None
6. None
7. 3—Jarious Jackson (214) 2000; Bradlee Van Pelt (250) 2004; Matt Mauck (225) 2004

Rich Tandler blogs about the Redskins at www.RealRedskins.com. You can reach him by email at RTandlerCSN@comcast.net and follow him on Twitter @Rich_Tandler.

 

Shanahan's draft history: Linebackers

Mike Shanahan has been the primary talent selector in 15 drafts with the Denver Broncos (1995-2008) and for two with the Redskins (2010-11). How well has he performed?

Over the next few days, we’ll break down Shanahan’s drafts position by position. If the past is prelude, maybe we can learn something about where he might go in the draft that starts on Thursday and how much success the players drafted might have going forward.

So far, we’ve look at defensive backs and wide receivers elected by Shanahan. Today, we look at linebackers. 

Details of each player’s draft status are at the bottom of the article.

Best pick

Middle linebacker Al Wilson more than justified his first-round status by cracking the starting lineup early in his rookie campaign. He made the first of three straight Pro Bowls following his third season, the start of five appearances is six years. He might still be playing had a neck injury suffered in 2006, when he was just 29, not forced his retirement.

Good picks

This is a solid group as five of the 13 linebackers drafted by Shanahan played in 90 or more games and two others, Ryan Kerrigan and Perry Riley, look like they are on their way to doing so. All of them made a roster and appeared in at least two NFL games. In addition to Wilson, the other two first-rounders, John Mobley and D. J. Williams started for the Broncos for six and seven years, respectively. Ian Gold played in 115 NFL games, 99 of them for the Broncos, and made the Pro Bowl in 2001. And seventh-round pick Nate Wayne lasted just two years in Denver but he went on to play 90 games for a total of four different teams, including 23 as a starter for the Eagles in 2003-2004. Spencer Larsen he started a game at fullback and at linebacker as a rookie in 2008 and has coverted to a full-tim backup. Kerrigan, the Redskins’ top pick a year ago, made most all-rookie teams and appears to be on his way to a good career, if not a great one. Riley is establishing himself as a solid player at inside linebacker.

Worst pick

Terry Pierce was the 51^st overall pick in 2003 and he never was able to establish himself in Denver. He played in just three games as a rookie. After playing mostly special teams in 2005 he was waived before the next season. The Broncos got 18 games and four tackles for their second-round pick. 

Bad picks

Fourth-round pick Ken Brown, and fifth-rounder Phil Yeboah-Kodie, both picked in 1995, played in two games each. Again, there isn’t much to complain about here as every linebacker Shanahan has drafted has made the roster and has played in an NFL game.

The nitty-gritty

Total linebackers drafted: 13
NFL games played: 658
Seasons as a starter: 32
Pro Bowls: 6—Al Wilson 5 (2001-2003, 2005-2006); Ian Gold 1 (2001) Note: John Mobley was named first-team All-NFL in 1997, but was not selected for the Pro Bowl
Games played, seasons as starter and Pro Bowls are for player’s career with all teams. 

Rounds/Players

1. 4—John Mobley (15 overall) 1996; Al Wilson (31) 1999; D. J. Williams (17) 2004; Ryan Kerrigan (16) 2011
2. 2—Ian Gold (40) 2000; Terry Pierce (51) 2003
3. None
4. 2—Ken Brown (124) 1995; Perry Riley (103) 2010
5. 1—Phil Yeboah-Kodie (146) 1995
6. 1—Spence Larsen (183) 2008
7. 3—Steve Russ (218) 1995; Nate Wayne (219) 1998; Markus White (224) 2011

You can reach him by email at RTandlerCSN@comcast.net and follow him on Twitter @Rich_Tandler.

 

Moving on up?

The Redskins have a third-round pick in the draft plus two in the fourth round. Since they had 12 draft picks last year who will be around to compete for jobs this year, some think that they might try to package those mid-round picks together and try to move up.

We don’t know what Mike Shanahan and company are thinking of doing but we can consult the handy draft trade value chart and see what they could get for their picks.

Their third-round pick is 69^th overall and their fourth-rounders are 102 and 109 overall. If they want to go all in, they could parlay the third (worth 245 points on the chart) and both fourths (worth 92 and 76 points) and move up to the 17^th pick of the second round, the 49^th overall pick.

That could bring into play such players as OT Bobbie Massie or CB Dwight Bentley or a player to whom the Redskins have given a first-round grade who is still there in the middle of the second round.

If the Redskins still wanted to hold on to one of the fourths, they could parlay the third and the earlier of the two fourths into a pick later in the second round, about the 24 selection in the round (57^th overall). The third and the latter fourth would get them up to a bit later in the second, about the 60^th overall.

If a player they want is there, they just might pull the trigger on a deal to move up.

 

Shanahan's draft history: Wide receiver

Mike Shanahan has been the primary talent selector in 15 drafts with the Denver Broncos (1995-2008) and for two with the Redskins (2010-11). How well has he performed?

Over the next few days, we’ll break down Shanahan’s drafts position by position. If the past is prelude, maybe we can learn something about where he might go in the draft that starts on April 28 and how much success the players drafted might have going forward.

So far, we’ve look at defensive backs selected by Shanahan. Today, we turn our attention to the wide receivers. 

Details of each player’s draft status are at the bottom of the article.

Best pick

As part of the trade to acquire an additional first-round draft pick in 2005, the Redskins traded their fourth-round pick in 2006 to the Broncos. Shanahan used that selection to take Brandon Marshall out of Central Florida. While Marshall had some off-field and attitude issues he certainly has been productive posting three straight seasons with over 100 catches and four straight with 1000 yards. 

Good picks

Eddie Royal gained 980 yards receiving as a rookie in 2008 and he has proven to be a solid contributor both as a receiver and punt returner. The Broncos didn’t get much out of Patrick Jeffers but he did gain 1084 yards for the Panthers in 1999. Ashley Lelie played fairly well in four seasons in Denver, leading the NFL in average yards per catch in 2003 (20.1) and 2004 (18.3). Still, describing him as a good pick is a borderline call since you would like to get more than four seasons out of the 19^th overall pick in the draft. Denver did, however, manage to get third- and fourth-round picks from the Redskins in a three-way trade when the parted ways with Lelie, so that tips the balance in favor of it being a solid selection. Leonard Hankerson showed some flashes of potential before his rookie 2011 season ended early due to a hip injury.

Worst pick

Drafting last as the Super Bowl champs, the Broncos took Marcus Nash out of Tennessee at the end of the first round in 1998. Denver got four receptions in ten games out of Nash before cutting him loose during the 1999 season. He played one game with the Ravens later that year and never caught on with another team after that. 

Bad picks

Unfortunately, most of Shanahan’s wide receiver picks fall into this category. Second-round pick Darius Watts had 31 receptions as a rookie in 2004 but he was gone after a two-catch season in 2004. Third-round picks Travis McGriff and Chris Cole had five and 12 career receptions, respectively. Fourth-round pick Domenik Hixon became a valuable reserve but it was for the Giants as the Broncos released him during his rookie 2006 season. No receiver selected by Shanahan in Denver from the fifth round on had double-digit receptions for the Broncos. 

The nitty-gritty

Total wide receivers drafted: 20
NFL games played: 520
Seasons as a starter: 12
Pro Bowls: 2—Brandon Marshall 2008-2009
Games played, seasons as starter and Pro Bowls are for player’s career with all teams.

Rounds/Players

1. 2—Marcus Nash (30 overall) 1998; Ashley Lelie (19) 2002
2. 2—Darius Watts (54) 2004; Eddie Royal (42) 2008
3. 3—Travis McGriff (93) 1999; Chris Cole (70) 2000; Leonard Hankerson (79) 2011
4. 2—Domenick Hixon (130) 2006; Brandon Marshall (119) 2006
5. 5—Patrick Jeffers (159) 1996; Muneer Moore (154) 2000; Herb Haygood (144) 2002; Adrian Madise (158) 2003; Niles Paul (155) 2011
6. 4—Chad Plummer (204) 1999; Kevin Kasper (190) 2001; Triandos Luke (171) 2004; Aldrick Robinson (178)
7. 2—Leroy Fields (246) 2000; Terrence Austin (219) 2010

Rich Tandler blogs about the Redskins at www.RealRedskins.com. You can reach him by email at RTandlerCSN@comcast.net and follow him on Twitter @Rich_Tandler.

 

Grigson says Colts to take Luck

Stop me if you’re heard this before, but the Indianapolis Colts are going to draft Andrew Lu--. Oh, you have heard it. 

We have one more confirmation to move the needle from a probability that the Colts will make the move everyone has thought they would make since about last November from 99.99 percent to about 99.999 percent.

Colts general manager Ryan Grigson publicly confirmed the choice of Andrew Luck with the first overall pick for the first time, according to Albert Breer of NFL.com. 

That means, of course, that the Redskins will be free to pick Robert Griffin III of Baylor to be their quarterback of the future. Although Mike Shanahan and others in the organization have said that the team would be happy with either quarterback, Griffin was clearly the fan’s choice.

Breer also reported that is was unlikely that the Colts would sign Luck to a contract prior to the draft as the rookie salary pool has not yet been set.

So, unless the contract situation, which would give Luck a 100 percent chance of becoming a Colt, changes, that’s it on the subject from here. Well, until Thursday night, anyway when the draft actually starts, anyway.

 

Cosell says RG3 has superior arm, talent

Greg Cosell of NFL Films, among the more astute film analysts out there, matches Robert Griffin III to the Colts with the first overall pick in his mock draft.

But don’t worry, Cosell is not projecting a last-minute twist by Jim Irsay. He says, “I know [the Colts] are taking Andrew Luck.” His draft is based on film study and his sense for what team needs are. 

He knows the Colts need a quarterback and he believes that Griffin is the better quarterback. “Griffin is a superior arm talent and better natural passer than Luck,” Cosell wrote. “This debate will rage for a long time but that’s my story and I’m sticking to it.”

That’s a good story for Redskins fans. In Cosell’s estimation, the Redskins are getting a quarterback better than Luck. The conventional wisdom is that Luck is the best quarterback prospect in the last 20 years. So if Cosell is right and Griffin turns out to be better it could be a pretty good run over the next decade or so for the Redskins.

 

Redskins-NFL draft FAQ's

Frequently asked questions about the 2012 NFL draft and what the Redskins might do during during the draft.

When and where will it take place?

The three-day extravaganza gets underway with the first round on Thursday at 8:00 p.m. The second and third rounds are on Friday starting at 6:00 p.m. and rounds four through seven will be held on Saturday starting at noon. It will be held at Radio City Music Hall in New York and will be televised by both ESPN and the NFL Network.

What picks do the Redskins have?

They have the second overall pick due to their trade with the Rams. After that, they have their own pick in the third (69^th overall), fourth (102), fifth (141), and seventh (213). They traded away their second-round pick in the deal to move up and their sixth-rounder went for Arizona for Tim Hightower. Washington also has the Raiders’ fourth-round pick (109), obtained for Jason Campbell, and the Vikings sixth (173) from the Donovan McNabb deal. So they have picks in rounds 1, 3, 4, 4, 5, 6, and 7, a total of seven picks.

Wait, didn’t they get a pick for Albert Haynesworth?

That fifth-round pick from the Patriots comes in the 2013 draft.

How certain is it that the Redskins will draft RG3?

Well, the Colts haven’t signed Andrew Luck to a contract yet and they haven’t made an announcement but there is little reasonable doubt that they will tab the Stanford quarterback with the top pick. That means that at about 8:30 on Thursday Robert Griffin III will be walking across the stage, giving Roger Goodell the bro hug, and holding up the No. 1 Redskins jersey. Any other outcome is so unlikely as to not be worth discussing.

What other positions will the Redskins target?

From the third round on, they will be looking for the best available players at almost any position. It seems that outside linebacker and defensive line are the only positions where Washington would not take a player and even then they might if the player represents a great value. Offensive tackle is one of the highest areas of need; unfortunately, most draft analysts say that it is one of the weakest positions in this draft. The Redskins also have needs at cornerback and the pool at that position is quite deep. 

Could the Redskins get more picks? 

Sure they could. Last year they went into the draft with eight picks with none in the third or fourth rounds and ended up with 12 selections with at least one in every round. The difference this time is that they don’t have the resources they did last time. In 2011 they traded back from the 10^th pick in the draft, picking up an extra second-rounder in the process. They then parlayed that second into additional picks throughout the draft. This year, their first is spoken for and they don’t have a second. Perhaps they could deal for some additional selections but it unlikely that we will see wheeling and dealing on the scale we saw last year.

Where are you going to be during all of this?

OK, that’s not a frequently asked question but I’ll sneak it in here anyway. On Tuesday I’ll be a part of a draft special that we’re broadcasting online at CSNwashington.com. Mike Shanahan has his pre-draft press conference at 1:00 on Wednesday and then it’s off to New York. I’ll be at Radio City Music Hall on Thursday night and then it’s back on the train for RG3’s introductory press conference at Redskins Park on Friday afternoon. Draft coverage on Friday night and Saturday will come from Redskins Park.

Days until: NFL draft 3; First OTA 28; Minicamp, 49; Preseason opener @Bills 108; Regular season opener @Saints 139.

You can reach Rich by email at RTandlerCSN@comcast.net and follow him on Twitter @Rich_Tandler.