Rich Tandler's Real Redskins

Why Carl Nicks won't be a Redskin

Among the questions I am most often asked on Twitter is whether or not the Redskins will make a push for Saints guard Carl Nicks. He is one of the top free agents at any position will be available starting on Tuesday. And while the Redskins’ line has improved somewhat it still is not performing as well as it needs to.

But Nicks is not going to be a Redskin. Here is what he said to radio station WWL in New Orleans on his contract demands:

I plan to be the highest paid guard in the NFL. You can take that whatever kinda way but that’s my goal, so…more than Logan Mankins got I guess.

The Patriots’ Mankins signed a six-year, $51 million deal with $30 million guaranteed last August. There certainly is nothing wrong with Nicks wanting to make more than that. This likely will be the one big payday he will get in his lifetime and he has earned the shot to get every dime he can. 

But he won't get it from the Redskins. 

The Redskins generally don’t get into bidding wars much anymore. They may make an occasional exception like wide receiver Vincent Jackson but they won’t get into one for Nicks.

The reason is that you do not need highly paid interior linemen in the zone-blocking scheme. The position requires some ability, to be sure. But it doesn’t require maulers who can drive massive defensive tackles back into the next county. Those are the guys who, like Nicks, will get the big bucks.

The ideal Mike Shanahan offense also features a lot of quarterback rollouts so that the interior line does not have to win a lot of one-on-one pass blocking battles against those big linemen. It appears that they will be getting the ideal quarterback to execute this offense in April when they are expected to draft Robert Griffin III.

All of this doesn’t mean that the guards and centers in zone blocking can be stiffs. They have to be athletic and, especially, smart. But there are a lot of players with those qualities out there so the laws of supply and demand says that you don’t have to pay a lot to get them. The key is to get ones who fit and then give them a lot of repetition so that they can mesh together and perform as a unit.

The Redskins may have set a record for the most draft picks given up for the second overall pick and they might give a wide receiver a record free agent contract. But they will not make Carl Nicks the highest-paid guard in the NFL. 

 

Only Fletcher on King's list of top free agents

With just a few days to go until the start of NFL free agency, SI.com’s Peter king has come out with his list of the top 50 free agents. Peyton Manning tops the list followed by defensive end Mario Williams and cornerback Courtland Finnegan.

Only one Redskins free agent, linebacker London Fletcher, was ranked 43^rd. Of the team’s defensive captain, King said, “Yes, he's 36. I don't care if he's 46. He's a guy who plays younger than he is.”

Here is how some of the free agents who have been linked to the Redskins in various ways are ranked:

7. WR Vincent Jackson
9. ILB Stephen Tulloch
12. OT Jared Gaither
17. C Chris Myers
23. WR Pierre Garcon
27. WR Marques Colston
28. CB Tracy Porter
32. DB Dwight Lowery
33. WR Mario Manningham
35. QB Kyle Orton
47. WR Robert Meachem

Former Redskins on the list:

11. CB Carlos Rogers
16. WR Brandon Lloyd
42. QB Jason Campbell

 

Report: Redskins will go all out for Vincent Jackson

The Redskins gave up a great deal to get their quarterback last week. This week they might go all out to get Robert Griffin III someone to throw to.

Vincent Jackson of the Chargers is the best free agent wide receiver on the market this year. The Chargers would like to sign him back but they are not confident that they will be able to do so. It appears that one particularly aggressive suitor might keep them from doing so, according to Kevin Acee, the Chargers beat writer for the San Diego Union-Tribune.

“The Chargers’ seeming resignation that Jackson will go somewhere else could be due in part to their having long been aware of a team – thought to be the Redskins – that will do almost whatever it takes to get Jackson,” Acee wrote.

That “almost anything” includes a check with a lot of zeroes on it. The Redskins’ offer could top $12 million, a number “which has been floated by knowledgeable people”, according to Acee.

Larry Fitzgerald of the Cardinals is the highest-paid receiver in the game with average pay of just over $16 million per year from the eight-year, $128.5 million contract he signed last year. The Lions’ Calvin Johnson will receiver a base salary of $14 million this season plus a $4.5 million roster bonus.  

Sometimes these numbers that get thrown around pre free agency turn out to have been significantly inflated, often thrown out by an agent hoping to increase his client’s payday. But it seems clear that it will take a pretty big check for the Redskins to get their man and that they are prepared to write one.

 

Report: Manning to decide on new team by Tuesday

You had better enjoy the saturation Peyton Manning coverage provided by the media (guilty as charged here!) while you can. It might not last much longer.

The Denver Post is reporting that Manning wants to make a decision on a new team before free agency starts on Tuesday.

The same report said that Manning will visit the Broncos tonight. Denver on the short list of three teams Manning is considering. He will visit the Cardinals and Dolphins over the weekend.

Getting the decision done by Tuesday makes sense as his new team will know where it stands in terms of the salary cap and will be able to use the presence of Manning as a recruiting tool, especially to any offensive skill players the team might want to bring on board.

A side benefit of the quick decision is that the drama will be over with and we will be able to move on to the other 500 or so players who will be out in free agency. 

 

Tale of the tape: Jackson vs. Colston

There was a report last week that the Redskins are going to pursue a top free agent wide receiver in free agency. We probably didn’t need unidentified sources in the organization to tell us that. The Redskins have been weak and inconsistent at receiver for the most part since Art Monk and Gary Clark left in the early 1990’s.

After the franchise tag took its toll on the crop of wide receivers hitting the market on Tuesday, the two best players left on the market at the position are Vincent Jackson of the Chargers and Marques Colston of the Saints. Let’s stack one up against the other and see who might be a better fit.

Tale of the tape

Vincent Jackson: Age 29 (DOB 1/14/83), 6-5, 241, 2005 second-round pick of Chargers out of Northern Colorado. Seven NFL seasons, all with San Diego. Career stats:

			Receiving
Year	G	GS	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	Lng
2005	7	0	3	59	19.7	0	21
2006	16	7	27	453	16.8	6	55
2007	16	16	41	623	15.2	3	45
2008	16	16	59	1098	18.6	7	60
2009*	15	15	68	1167	17.2	9	55
2010	5	5	14	248	17.7	3	58
2011	16	16	60	1106	18.4	9	58
Career	91	75	272	4754	17.5	37	60

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/9/2012.

Marques Colston: Age 28 (DOB 6/5/83), 6-4, 225, 2006 seventh-round pick by the Saints out of Hofstra. Six NFL seasons all with New Orleans. Career stats:

			Receiving
Year	G	GS	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	Lng
2006	14	12	70	1038	14.8	8	86
2007	16	14	98	1202	12.3	11	45
2008	11	6	47	760	16.2	5	70
2009	16	14	70	1074	15.3	9	68
2010	15	11	84	1023	12.2	7	43
2011	14	8	80	1143	14.3	8	50
Career	86	65	449	6240	13.9	48	86

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/9/2012.

Analysis

Both receivers will be 29 by the time the season starts so there is no real difference in age. Jackson is slightly bigger but Colston certainly is big enough. Jackson has two essentially wasted seasons, his rookie year and 2010 when he sat out most of the season in a contract dispute. Colston has been consistent all of his six years and has significantly better career totals as a result. The big number in Jackson’s favor is his career average of 17.5 yards per catch. The Redskins need a big-play receiver and while Colston certainly can get yards in chunks, Jackson does so more consistently.

Both have red flags. After the 2009 season Colston had microfracture surgery on his left knee. Then prior to last season he had microfracture on his right knee. He also had wrist surgery about a year ago. The microfracture surgery is not the career killer it once was but one on each knee in the past two years certainly is cause for concern.

Jackson pleaded guilty to DUI cases that occurred in 2006 and 2009. He was suspended for four games in 2010 and, like the Redskins’ Fred Davis and Trent Williams, he faces a full season suspension if he commits another violation of the NFL’s substance abuse policy.

Both played for top-notch quarterbacks in pass-happy systems so there is no reason to discount the stats of either compared to each other.

They both will command a lot of money. Both are going for their big career payday and the size of the paycheck could well be the major deciding factor for them.

Report: Redskins to pursue Manningham

The Redskins may look to raid a division rival to upgrade its receiver corps.

Speaking to the Sports Junkies on 106.7 The Fan in Washington, Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk said that the Redskins are going to make a big effort to sign Giants wide receiver Mario Manningham.

When he last saw Manningham, the was making a nice catch of a 38-yard pass from Eli Manning, getting his feet inbounds to move the Giants from their 12 to midfield in the late going. New York went on to drive in for the game-winning touchdown.

Would Manningham be a good fit for the Redskins? It depends on the contract. The Redskins do need to upgrade their receiver corps, no doubt about it. And Manningham would represent and upgrad.

But if he gets paid close to what top free agent receivers like Vincent Jackson will get, in the neighborhood of $10 million per year, it would not be a good acquisition for the Redskins. Even at $7 million, the Redskins would be paying him like a No. 1 receiver when his production is that of a No. 2 or 3 receiver.

In 2011, Manningham caught 39 passes for 523 yards and four touchdowns. He missed four games with a knee injury. Playing a full season in 2010, he had 60 receptions for 944 yards and nine TD’s. Even the better season is more like a second wide receiver in a competent offense.

At something more like $5 million or so per year, Manningham could be a good acquisition. Even though when he came in he might be the No. 1 receiver, he wouldn’t remain that for long as the Redskins would continue to try to upgrade.

The feeling here is that some team with even more cap space than the Redskins have will pay Manningham well over his market value. It would be surprising to see the Super Bowl hero ending up in Washington.

 

No Peyton to DC? Not so fast!

Stop the (cyber) presses!

According to our corporate cousins at Pro Football Talk, Peyton Manning has not told the Redskins to take him out of consideration for their open quarterback job.

Mike Florio said that “a source with knowledge of the situation” told him that a report from earlier in the day that Manning told the Redskins that he will not play for them is not true.

We will see how this story shakes out as it makes its way through the 24/7 news cycle. It is entire possible that Manning is genuinely interested in hearing a pitch from Mike Shanahan and company.

But a cynic might suggest that the more teams that are in the bidding the higher the price it will take to secure Manning’s services will go so perhaps the Redskins are being kept at the table as a shill.

Stay tuned.

 

Manning saved the Redskins from themselves

Yesterday, a friend of mine who only casually follows the Redskins emailed me to ask if the Redskins were really going to sign Peyton Manning. My reply was that they were going to try but that, in the end, Manning would decline what surely would have been a sizeable paycheck and save the Redskins from themselves.

It didn’t take long. Less than 24 hours after he became a free agent after being let go by the Colts, Manning reportedly has put out the word that he is not interested in being a member of the Redskins.

The Redskins might have been able to correct many of the issues that possibly prevented them from being in the chase for the future Hall of Fame QB. They could have upgraded the offensive playmakers in free agency and they could have tweaked the offensive scheme to better accommodate what Manning does well. There were reports that Mike and Kyle Shanahan were willing to cede a considerable amount of control over the offense to Manning.

But the one thing they couldn’t do was petition the NFL to move out of the NFC East. Or to have Eli Manning and the New York Giants moved out of the division. It appears that Peyton did not want to go against his younger brother twice a year and that may have been the deal breaker.

There would have been pluses to having Manning in burgundy and gold. They certainly would have returned to national relevance. Manning likely would have been able to drag them into playoff contention. The quarterback’s legendary work ethic and perfectionist tendencies certainly would have rubbed off on the rest of the team.

But the move certainly would have had the feel of trying to win now and pay the consequences later. It would be Mike Shanahan, who turns 60 later this year, trying to take a shortcut to one last Super Bowl run to seal his Hall of Fame legacy.

It was widely believed that the Manning was the Redskins’ first preference and that, if that failed, they would work to pull a deal to trade up in the draft to take Robert Griffin III. Many fans and analysts believe that Griffin is the better option anyway.

Manning turning down the Redskins could be a blessing, one that is barely disguised. 

 

Enemy Intel: Eagles' free agency plans

We wanted to find out what the Redskins' division rivals are up to in free agency so we went to some of our friends who cover the NFC East. The Eagles are first up and we got in touch with Jim Kempski, who covers the whole division on his Blogging the BEast site and the Eagles at Bleeding Green Nation. Here 

*What is the Eagles’ current salary cap situation? Do you anticipate any cap casualties?

Eagles fans are blessed to have the resource known as eaglescap.com, which does an amazing job of keeping up with the Eagles salary cap situation.  Eaglescap.com currently has the Eagles' estimated cap space estimated at $19,386,628.  The NFL needs to clone this guy 31 times and dispense them to the other NFL teams.

The Eagles have a number of likely cap casualties:

- C Jamaal Jackson is done in Philly.  Hes on the hook for $1.875M with no penalty if cut, and with Jason Kelce firmly entrenched as the Eagles' starting center, Jackson will be gone.

- Darryl Tapp is a nice player, and played well when he got his chances, but he probably won't be sticking around at $3.575M.  The Eagles have two excellent starting DE's in Trent Cole and Jason Babin.  2010 1st round pick Brandon Graham and Phillip Hunt (a guy the Eagles really like) are behind them, and they always seem to add a pass rusher either in free agency or the draft.

- Winston Justice is on the hook for $4.256M.  He's gone.

- Asante Samuel, Nnamdi Asomugha, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie are all very talented corners that can play on the outside, but none of them are particularly good in the slot.  One of them has to go.  Samuel is 31 years old, he's going to make $10.5M in 2012, and his aggressive style of play doesn't jive quite the way it did when the Eagles blitzed a lot more than they do now, so he's the odd man out.  The Eagles won't cut him though.  There's little doubt they'll get some sort of compensation for him in a trade.

*What were the pros and cons of putting the franchise tag on DeSean Jackson? Was it a move that you would have made?

The tag for DeSean was a no-brainer, in my opinion.  The Eagles weren't going to just let him walk for nothing.  DeSean is an enigma.  In 2011, he moped his way through the season, which was strange for a guy playing for a contract.  He had just 58 catches, 961 yards, 4 TD's, and a boatload of drops, some of which were in critical moments.  Compare those numbers to Jabar Gaffney (68-947-5).  I don't want to sound like I'm taking a shot at Gaffney with that comment, but the expectations for those two players were vastly different.  That's bad DeSean.  Conversely, in 2009, he had TD distances of 85, 72, 71, 67, 64, 60, 57, 54, 48, 35, 19, 4, and 2.  That's the DeSean that's as big a threat to score anytime he touches the football as anyone in the league.  It's the DeSean that scares the daylights out of opposing defensive coordinators, who park their safeties 30 yards off the line of scrimmage.  Good DeSean is such an intriguing football player, but Bad DeSean makes you think twice about giving him a lucrative long term deal.

*Who is the one free agent the Eagles can least afford to lose?

LG Evan Mathis, by default.  The Eagles don't have many free agents to worry about this offseason.  Mathis had a good season in 2011, and his style of play (quick, mobile type) is a great fit for Howard Mudd's blocking scheme.  He didn't give up a sack all season.  However, since he's more of a "scheme fit," I don't think he'll get much attention elsewhere, and I don't think he's extraordinarily irreplaceable either. 

*Is there one who the fans would like to see hit the road?

Can I give more than one?  Steve Smith, Vince Young, Ronnie Brown, Victor Abiamiri - Take your pick from those four.  None of them will be remembered fondly in Philly.

*Is there a free agent on the Redskins’ roster who may be on the Eagles’ radar?

There's some guy that wears the number 59.  I think he's been around for a while.  Hasn't missed a game in 14 years.  True leader.  Tackle machine.  If he doesn't make the Hall of Fame, they may as well just do away with it.  He's getting long in the tooth, but seems to me like the kind of guy that would fit a glaring obvious need for a team that has a head coach perceived to be expected to make some noise in the playoffs in order to keep his job.  I don't know if that guy is on the Eagles' radar, but he's certainly on mine.

 

What if free agency starts and Fletcher isn't signed?

There is still plenty of time for the Redskins to come to a contract agreement with linebacker London Fletcher. But if free agency starts and there is no deal . . .