RG3's projected rookie stats would be an improvement for Redskins

Redskins fans viewing the world through their burgundy and gold tinted glasses aren’t the only folks out there who think that Robert Griffin III can give the Redskins improved quarterback play right off the bat. Some neutral number crunchers do as well. 

A website called PredicitonMachine.com came up with their 2012 rookie quarterback passing projections. How do they do it? They said that they “run a very complex set of algorithms that factor college stats, previous utilization and strength of competition, combine measurables, role and expected utilization of the player's NFL team (in this case an average NFL team) and previous performance of similar rookies at that position in general.”

If your eyes haven’t glazed over by now, here are their projected numbers for RGIII in 2012 compared to the combined performances of Rex Grossman and John Beck in 2011. 

Griffin projected 2012: 510 att, 305 comp., 59.8%, 3951 yards, 7.7 yards/att, 25 TD’s, 18 INT’s

Grossman-Beck 2011: 591 att, 346 comp. 58.5%, 4058 yards, 6.9 yards/att, 19 TD’s, 24 INT’s

So, according to the projections, the rookie Griffin will complete a better percentage of his passes, averaged more per attempt, and have significantly more touchdowns and fewer interceptions than the two veterans posted last year.

I think that most Redskins fans--and Mike Shanahan--would sign up for that right now.

 

Comments

[Billy Crawford]

Grossman-Beck 2011: 591 att, 265 comp. 58.5%

Something is off here. The Grossman-Beck att and comp does not align with the completion%

Also, these expectations seen extraordinarily high. These stats exclude fumbles, which are almost always excruciatingly high for rookie QBs. Worse, they don't in any way align to recent rookie QBs' performances. Here's the last 10 draft's top 2 QBs:

’11 Newton – 16 starts. (Record: 6-10)
’11 Locker - 0 starts.

’10 Bradford - 16 starts (QB rating: 76.5)
’10 Tebow - 3 starts.

’09 Stafford - 10 starts (QB rating: 61)
’09 Sanchez – 15 starts QB rating: 63)

’08 Ryan - 16 starts
’08 Flacco - 16 starts

’07 Russell - 1 start
’07 Quinn - 0 starts

’06 Vince Young - 13 starts (QB rating: 66.7)
’06 Matt Leinart - 11 starts (QB rating: 74)

’05 Alex Smith - 7 starts (QB rating: 41)
’05 Rodgers - 0 starts

’04 Manning - 7 starts (QB rating: 55)
’04 Rivers - 0 starts

’03 Palmer - 0 starts
’03 Leftwich - 13 starts (QB rating: 73)

’02 Carr - 16 starts (QB rating: 63)
’02 Harrington - 12 starts (QB rating: 60)

Here's a few Stud QBs ratings their first 2 seasons:
Quarterback | Year 1 Rating | Year 2 rating
Brees | 77 | 67
E Manning | 55 | 76
Steve Young | 57 | 65
Aikman | 56 | 67
Bradford | 76 | 71
Bledsoe | 65 | 74
Plummer | 73 | 75
Theismann | 58 | 62
Elway | 55 | 77
Simms | 66 | 59
Plunkett | 69 | 46
Bob Griese | 62 | 76
Fouts | 46 | 61
Pastorini | 44 | 57
Bradshaw |30 | 60

I hope the town is not expecting too much from this young man his rookie season. Franchise QBs must be developed, no matter how highly they are drafted and how much potential they display playing at the collegiate level.