20 questions in 20 days: #11 Can the Redskins flip their turnover ratio?

By Tarik El-Bashir and Rich Tandler
CSNwashington.com 

20 questions in 20 days

As we count down to the first game of the Redskins’ season, Tarik El-Bashir and Rich Tandler are going to be looking at some of the big questions facing the team and attempting to look into their crystal balls and answer them.

Question 11: Can the Redskins flip their turnover ratio?

The background: The 2011 Redskins were tied for 30^th in the NFL last year with a minus-14 turnover ratio. They suffered on both ends of the equation. They gave the ball up 35 times on interceptions (24) and fumbles (11). They managed to pilfer just 13 passes and recover eight fumbles. Bottom line, it’s hard to win games when you are giving the team an average on one net additional possession game. Improvement for the 2012 Redskins has to start here. A run to a .500 record or better just isn't going to happen if they are again double digits in the hole in giveaway-takeaway.

Tandler: I think that the Redskins can improve on the giveaway part of the turnover formula even with a rookie quarterback at the helm. Robert Griffin III has gone the whole preseason without coming close to throwing an interception. He is not going to duplicate that in 16 regular season games but he is accurate and while he will make mistakes we haven’t seen him make any of the “why did he throw that pass there” variety. I’m not so sure how much they can improve on takeaways. During the preseason they have continued their maddening propensity to drop potential interceptions that are right in their hands. Even newcomers like Richard Crawford and Bryan Kehl have caught the “hands of stone” malady. The obviously need to do better here if they are going to improve their turnover numbers.

El-Bashir: I also see the potential for improvement in this department. The question is how much? First, I agree with Rich about Griffin’s crucial role in reversing the trend. Although the rookie quarterback lost two fumbles in three preseason games, he did not throw an interception. He also didn’t pass much (31 attempts) but from the little we witnessed, it’s clear he’ll be more careful with the ball than his pickoff prone predecessor. Rex Grossman ranked tied for the third most interceptions in 2011 with 20; I‘d be surprised of Griffin even approaches that figure. DeAngelo Hall could be another factor in flipping the turnover ration. If he lines up, as expected, as a nickel corner, that will give him more opportunities for interceptions. He picked off three passes last season, a drop from six in 2010.

20 questions in 20 days

#20 Aug.20—Will Jammal Brown play this year?
#19 Aug.21—Will Chris Cooley make the team?
#18 Aug. 22—Can Brandon Meriweather get he job done at safety?
#17 Aug. 23—Is Garçon a No. 1 receiver?
#16 Aug. 24—Can Trent Williams go from good to great?
#15 Aug. 25—Can DeAngelo Hall be a defensive playmaker?
#14 Aug. 26—Can Santana Moss regain his old form?
#13 Aug. 27—Can Orakpo post 15 sacks?
#12 Yesterday—Will Leonard Hankerson break out?
#11 Today—Can the Redskins flip their turnover ratio?
#10 Tomorrow—How much can Hightower contribute this year?
#9 Friday—Was making Billy Cundiff the kicker a good move?

Comments

[Billy Crawford]

It can be argued our QB's ceiling and potential is higher than any QB who has ever played the game. But can we come back down to earth and remind ourselves this is Robert's rookie season, he's going to turn the ball over a lot. He's a rookie. EVERY QB takes multiple years to develop.

Here's an analysis of the first 5 Seasons' QB ratings of every QB who was drafted #1 or 2 during the past ten drafts:
'11 1st QB: Newton - Year 1: 16 starts 84 rating
'11 2nd QB: Locker - Year 1: 0 starts.

'10 1st QB: Bradford - Year 1: 16 starts 76 rating; Year 2: 16 starts 70 rating

'10 2nd QB: Tebow - Yr 1: 3 starts 82 rating; Yr 2: 11 starts 73 rating

'09 1st QB: Stafford - Yr 1: 10 starts 61 rating; Yr 2: 3 starts 91 rating; Yr 3: 16 starts 97 rating.

'09 2nd QB: Sanchez - Yr 1: 15 starts 63 rating; Yr 2: 16 starts 75 rating; Yr 3: 16 starts 78 rating.

'08 1st QB: Ryan - Yr 1: 16 starts 88 rating; Yr 2: 14 starts 81 rating; Yr 3: 16 starts 91 rating; Yr 4: 16 starts 92 rating.

'08 2nd QB: Flacco - Yr 1: 16 starts 80 rating; Yr 2: 16 starts 89 rating; Yr 3: 16 starts 94 rating; Yr 4: 16 starts 81 rating.

'07 1st QB: Russell - Yr 1: 1 start 56 rating; Yr 2: 15 starts 77 rating; Yr 3: 9 starts 50 rating; Yr 4: 9 starts 50 rating; Yr 5: gone.

'07 2nd QB: Quinn - Yr 1: 0 starts; Yr 2: 3 starts 67 rating; Yr 3: 9 starts 67 rating; Yr 4: 0 start; Yr 5: gone.

'06 1st QB: Young - Yr 1: 13 starts 67 rating; Yr 2: 15 starts 71 rating; Yr 3: 1 start 65 rating; Yr 4: 10 starts 83 rating; Yr 5: 8 starts 99 rating; Yr 6: gone.

'06 2nd QB: Leinart - Yr 1: 11 starts 74 rating; Yr 2: 5 starts 62 rating; Yr 3: 0 starts; Yr 4: 1 start 65 rating; Yr 5: gone.

'05 1st QB: Alex Smith - Yr 1: 7 starts 41 rating; Yr 2: 16 starts 75 rating; Yr 3: 7 starts 57 rating; Yr 4: 0 starts; Yr 5: 10 starts 81 rating.

'05 2nd QB: Rodgers - Yr 1: 0 starts; Yr 2: 0 starts; Yr 3: 0 starts; Yr 4: 16 starts 94 rating; Yr 5: 16 starts103 rating; Yr 6: 15 starts 101 rating; Yr 7: 15 starts 122 rating.

'04 1st QB: Manning - Yr 1: 7 starts 55 rating; Yr 2: 16 starts 76 rating; Yr 3: 16 starts 77 rating; Yr 4: 16 starts 74 rating; Yr 5: 16 starts 85 rating.

'04 2nd QB: Rivers - Yr 1: 0 starts; Yr 2: 0 starts; Yr 3: 16 starts 92 rating; Yr 4: 16 starts 82 rating; Yr 5: 16 starts105 rating.

'03 1st QB: Palmer - Yr 1: 13 starts 77 rating; Yr 2: 16 starts 101 rating; Yr 3: 16 starts 94 rating; Yr 4: 16 starts 87 rating; Yr 5: 4 starts 69 rating.

'03 2nd QB: Leftwich - Yr 1: 13 starts 73 rating; Yr 2: 14 starts 82 rating; Yr 3: 11 starts 89 rating; Yr 4: 6 starts 79 rating; Yr 5: 2 starts 59 rating.

'02 1st QB: Carr - Yr 1: 16 starts 63 rating; Yr 2: 11 starts 69 rating; Yr 3: 16 starts 83 rating; Yr 4: 16 starts 77 rating; Yr 5: 16 starts 82 rating.

'02 2nd QB: Harrington - Yr 1: 12 starts 60 rating; Yr 2: 16 starts 64 rating; Yr 3: 16 starts 77 rating; Yr 4: 11 starts 72 rating; Yr 5: 11 starts 68 rating

You can now make the argument that RG3 is a guaranteed future HOF QB since that may turn out to be true. So now let's look at the QB ratings of some great QBs in NFL history during their first 2 seasons:

Quarterback | Year 1 Rating | Year 2 rating
Brees | 77 | 67
E Manning | 55 | 76
Plummer | 73 | 75
Bradford | 76 | 71
Steve Young | 57 | 65
Aikman | 56 | 67
Bledsoe | 65 | 74
Theismann | 58 | 62
Elway | 55 | 77
Simms | 66 | 59
Plunkett | 69 | 46
Bob Griese | 62 | 76
Fouts | 46 | 61
Pastorini | 44 | 57
Bradshaw |30 | 60

Am I expecting RG3 to develop into an elite QB? Yes. But I am also expecting to see him turn the ball over a lot this first season.

[Rich Tandler]

Good research but we're talking strictly interceptions here, not overall play. Here are the last five rookies to start and play 16 games and their INT totals.

Newton 17
Dalton 13
Bradford 15
Ryan 11
Sanchez 20

All better than Beck/Rex and except for Sanchez all considerably better. No guarantees on RG3 but it's a myth that just because he's a rookie he is destined to turn it over al lot.

[Billy Crawford]

I'm honored to see your name at the bottom of a comment.

Adding in each of these players fumbles we see the following ratio of Passing TDs to Turnovers:
QB | TDs | Turnovers
Newton | 21 TDs | 22 Turns
Bradford | 18 TDs | 22 Turns
Bradford '11 | 6 TDs | 16 Turns
Dalton | 20 TDs | 18 Turns
Ryan | 16 TDs | 17 Turns

Still very impressive for rookies.

RG3 is often compared to Steve Young. In his 2 season career with the team that drafted him Steve threw for 11 touchdowns with 21 interceptions while completing fewer than 55% of his passes. He also fumbled it 15 times. That's 11 passing TDs versus 32 turnovers.

I love RG3 and I'm hoping for an amazing season like Cam's, but given the state of our offensive line, I'm prepared to be every bit as patient with Robert as the Giants staff was with Eli his first four seasons. Eli threw 77 TDs while turning it over 98 times on picks and fumbles.