Rich Tandler's Real Redskins

Crunching the numbers on Danny Smith

This is a repost of an article I wrote in Janaury of 2011. Some updated numbers are presented presented below but the overall picture of the permformance of Danny Smith's special teams has not improved since this was written.

To take an objective look at Smith’s performance, let’s go to FootballOutsiders.com, that fine numbers crunching outfit. While I don’t view their stats as the final word in any discussion, they do provide a good, objective way of evaluating performance, especially over a period of years. They use a system called DVOA, which is a plus or minus rating based on the team’s performance with factors such as the strength of the opposition taken into account. You can go here if you want the nitty-gritty on the system.

If you want to keep it simple, a plus rating is better than average while a minus indicates a below-average performance. We’ll also look at some of the individual highlights and lowlights from year to year. While this isn’t intended to be a comprehensive look at Smith’s Redskins career, it can serve as at least an objective starting point for further discussion.

2004 Special teams DVOA: -3.9% (31^st in NFL) Best area: Kickoff return, 3.5 Worst area: Punt cover, -10.5 Tom Tupa was second in punting average in the NFL with 44.1 yards per punt. But the coverage gave back 11.2 yards per return, 26^th in the league. Ladell Betts was the primary kickoff returner and he averaged 23.0 yards per return.

2005 Special teams DVOA: 1.5% (9^th) Best area: Punt cover, 10.1 Worst area: Punt return, -4.3 Derrick Frost’s punts didn’t travel as far as Tupa’s did the previous season but the coverage was much better. Frost’s kicks averaged a pedestrian 40.4 yards. The coverage unit made up for it by allowing an average of just 4.7 yards per return. Antonio Brown and James Thrash returned most of the punts and their longest return of the year was 18 yards by Thrash.

2006 Special teams DVOA: 1.7% (11^th) Best area: Kickoff return 5.1 Worst area: FG/PAT -2.9 Shaun Suisham (5 games), John Hall (5 games), and Nick Novak (6 games) tag-teamed the kicker duties for the season. They combined to make just 73.3 per cent of their field goals including 6 of 11 from between 40 and 49 yards. Rock Cartwright returned the bulk of the kickoffs, averaging 24.1 yards per return including a 100-yard run back for a touchdown.

2007 Special teams DVOA: -0.3% (16^th) Best area: Kickoff return and punt cover, both 7.1 Worst area:Punt return, -7.0 Antwaan Randle El was the primary punt returner with a 6.1 yard average. The team averaged 7.5 yards per return, 26^th in the NFL. Cartwright continued to return kickoffs for a 25.8-yard average and a long return of 80 yards. Frost continued his pattern of producing shorter punts but ones that allowed the coverage team to do its job. The Redskins allowed 6.3 yards per return, sixth in the league.

2008 Special teams DVOA: -2.0% (25^th) Best area: Kick return 7.7 Worst area: Punt return -10.2 In a perfect demonstration of the old adage, “Be careful what you wish for, you just might get it”, many Redskins fans got just what they wanted when Frost was released. But rookie Durant Brooks, a sixth-round draft pick, lasted just six games before yielding to veteran Ryan Plackemeier, who wasn’t much better. The two combined to average 41.0 yards a punt and the opponents returned those kicks for an average of 11.7 yards, 27^th in the NFL. And speaking of players that some wanted run out of town, Cartwright continued to deliver a solid performance returning kicks, averaging 25.6 yards.

2009 Special teams DVOA: -1.3% (23^rd) Best area: Kickoff cover 5.8 Worst area: Kick return -8.0 The Redskins allowed the kickoffs of Suisham (first 12 games) and Graham Gano (final four games) to be returned for an average of 19.7 yards, third best in the NFL. With Cartwright and Devin Thomas sharing the kickoff return duties the performance plummeted as the team averaged 21.7 yards per return, 24^th in the league.

2010 Special teams DVOA: -1.7% (26^th) Best area: Kickoff cover 16.4 Worst area: Punt cover: -21.2 You might see why the Redskins want to give Gano another shot at keeping the place kicking job as his kickoffs were returned for an average of just 19.0 yards, second in the NFL. Certainly, he needs to up his game in the field goals department. Per the Football Outsiders’ numbers, the Redskins’ field goal-extra point performance was by far the worst in the NFL (it was -15.6; the Saints had the second-worst at -5.5). But the punt coverage was worse as four punters, Josh Bidwell (3 games), Gano (one game), Hunter Smith (9 games), and Sam Paulescu averaged 40.6 yards a punt and saw their kicks returned for an average of 12.6 yards, second worst in the NFL.

(Update: For 2011, FO had the Redskins' special teams DVOA at -1.2%, 21st in the league. In 2012 it was -4.0%, 27th in the league. These numbers are not included in the figures below but as you can see they certainly don't help the statistical picture of Smith's overall results.)

Overall, less than average Over his seven years, Smith’s special teams have an average DVOA of -0.9 and an average overall placement of about 20^th in the league. That certainly would lead one to conclude that his reputation as an excellent special teams coach exceeds the actual performance of the special teams units on the field. To sum up the best and worst areas per Football Outsiders noted above, the Redskins have been consistently good at kickoff returns (best area four times) and kickoff coverage (2 times). The consistent problem areas have been punt returns (3 times) and punt coverage (2 times). In defense of Smith, let’s compare his first four years with the Redskins, all of which were with Joe Gibbs, with the last three years under Jim Zorn and Mike Shanahan. With Gibbs, the special teams had an average DVOA of -0.3 and an average rank of 17^th in the league.

If you throw out the first season as a learning year, the DVOA with Gibbs jumps to 1.0 and the average ranking is 12^th. Post Gibbs, the DVOA is -1.67 with an average of 25^th in the league. While all coaches pay lip service to special teams, Gibbs had a track record of practicing what he preached. He gave Smith unprecedented authority when it came to the roster. Smith chose the punter and the kicker and he even had a lot of influence over the final few roster spots so that he could ensure that some core special teams players would be available. It appears that when Gibbs left Smith’s authority over personnel diminished considerably.

To take one example, is it even conceivable that Smith would have cut Frost, who had done solid work for him, at the end of training camp in 2008 in favor of the rookie Brooks? It seems far more likely that the decision was made by Vinny Cerrato, the general manager who drafted Brooks. Would Smith have cut Suisham for one miss, albeit a critical one, against the Saints when he had missed just three field goals through 12 games and was kicking off well? Or was that decision made impulsively well over Smith’s head?

On the other hand, coaches are supposed to coach the players that they have available to them. That especially tends to be the case around the league when it comes to special teams. Thos units rarely get prize free agent acquisitions and have to deal with coverage teams composed of players chosen by other coaches. And yet Smith’s Redskins units have been in the top 10 in the NFL just once and in the bottom 10 three times. Those three times in the bottom 10 are the past three years. In the area of “what have you done for me lately”, Danny Smith’s resume is rather bare.

Need to Know: Redskins were Super 25 years ago today

Here is what you need to know on this Thursday, January 31, three days before Super Bowl XLVII.

Zorn looking for work north of the border

Jim Zorn, who popped into the news lately when it was revealed that Dan Snyder fired Vinny Cerrato because Cerrato let him hire Zorn to be the Redskins’ head coach, is looking for work.

He had been the quarterbacks coach of the Chiefs for the last two seasons but when Andy Reid was hired, Zorn was let go. And now he’s looking for another head coaching job north of the border.

According to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com, Zorn has interviewed for the head coaching job of the Montreal Alouettes of the CFL. That was the job vacated when Marc Trestman took the job as the head coach of the Chicago Bears.

Zorn posted a record of 12-20 as the Redskins’ head coach from 2008-2009. That is the only coaching experience he has above the position coach level. The Redskins originally hired him to be their offensive coordinator but they decided to make him the head coach later in the process.

The Chiefs ranked 25^th and 32^nd in passing offense in Zorn’s two years as their quarterbacks coach. It is difficult to pin all of the blame for that on Zorn. The quarterbacks he has had to work with were Matt Cassel, Tyler Palko, Kyle Orton, and Brady Quinn.

It was 25 years ago today

The Redskins executed 15 minutes of perfection on this day 25 years ago.

It was the second quarter of Super Bowl XXII in San Diego. John Elway and the Broncos (with offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan) had taken a 10-0 lead in the first quarter. But they were ambushed by Doug Williams and a Redskins team executing Joe Gibbs’ offense even better than the legendary coach drew it up in the playbook.

In just 5:47 of possession time and 18 plays, the Redskins gained 357 yards and ran up the most points ever scored in one quarter of a postseason game. Timmy Smith gained 122 yards on the ground and Williams passed for 228 yards, 168 of them to Ricky Sanders.

Williams not only played the game of his life, he endured the silly questions that came with being the first black quarterback to play in a Super Bowl. Here’s my post on how what he endured with class and dignity blazed the trail for others.

In case you missed it

• 25 years ago, Doug Williams blazed a trail
• Danny Smith leaving for Pittsburgh
• Breakout 2013: Aldrick Robinson
• Ravens’ Pollard off base in predicting doom for NFL
• Josh Morgan honored by Redskins

Days until: NFL Combine 21; Start of 2013 league year 40; 2013 NFL draft 84

Pollard off base in predicting doom for football

Ravens safety Bernard Pollard is concerned about the future of football.

"Thirty years from now, I don't think it will be in existence," Pollard told CBSSports.com. "I could be wrong. It's just my opinion, but I think with the direction things are going -- where they [NFL rules makers] want to lighten up, and they're throwing flags and everything else -- there's going to come a point where fans are going to get fed up with it."

You should never say never but there are plenty of reasons to believe that Pollard is perhaps overly concerned about the future of the game. The game has been made safer and safer almost from the moment it was invented and its popularity continues to grow.

In the late 1800’s and early 1900’s, football was being played on college campuses under a loose set of rules. The game was violent to the point where during the 1905 season, 18 college and amateur players died. Countless more suffered debilitating injuries. Publications such as the New York Times called for the game to be banned.

Rather than banning football, however, President Teddy Roosevelt decided he wanted to save it. He convened a group of coaches and administrators and bluntly told them that unless changes were made football would no longer be played.  

There was some resistance during and after the meeting, but eventually football's leaders would agree to get rid of many of the elements that had turned the sport into all-but-unregulated brutality. Rugby-style mass formations, and gang tackling, were outlawed; the distance needed for a first down was changed from five yards to ten, which made it essential to come up with plays that didn't necessarily go straight through the center of the line; a neutral zone was instituted at the line of scrimmage; and -- most important -- a new kind of play was put into the rulebook:

The forward pass.

Those changes not only saved the game, they enhanced it, making it more enjoyable to watch. The NFL was formed in the early 1920’s and the college rules were adapted and improved. The pro game surpassed the college game in popularity in the 1960’s. During that time, clothesline tackles were executed regularly and defensive linemen were permitted to head slap blockers. Those methods were outlawed in later decades but practices such as helmet to helmet hits against defenseless players and wedge formations on kickoffs were either legal or the rules against them weren’t enforced. Those rules have been either changed or made to be points of emphasis over the last decade.

And as the game has become safer and safer for the players, its popularity has grown and grown. TV ratings are through the roof. Last year’s Super Bowl was watched by over 111 million people in the USA. Regular season ratings are as strong as ever.

The results of a recent Harris poll revealed that pro football is the most popular sport in America by a wide margin. Thirty-four percent of respondents named pro football as their favorite sport, easily beating baseball, named by 16 percent.

And all of this is against the backdrop of concerns like the ones that Pollard expressed. Perhaps the NFL is losing some fans due to the emphasis on player safety but the numbers would indicate that they are gaining more than they may be losing.

There may be a breaking point somewhere. Maybe the rules with get changed to change the game into something that is safe to the point of being boring and fans will start to leave and they won’t get replaced. But it is difficult to see that happening even 30 years in the future.

Even if it becomes only half as popular as it is now, it would decline to the level where baseball is now. That sport is doing quite well, thank you. Just ask Albert Pujols (starting the second year of a 10-year, $240 million contract), Josh Hamilton (5 years, $123 million), Ryan Zimmerman (8 years, $126 million), or any number of other multi-millionaire players.

The NFL might not remain on top of the heap in the sports world forever. But there is still plenty of reason to believe that Pollard’s should stick to football and stay out of the predictions business. 

Need to Know: All quiet on the Redskins' coaching front

Here is what you need to know on this Wednesday, January 30, 22 days before the NFL Combine.

Status quo on coaches

In response to some inquiries on Twitter, I am reporting that there is nothing to report on the assistant coaches front.

Danny Smith was granted permission to talk to the Steelers earlier this week. We don’t know if he has talked to the Steelers yet or what their timetable for making a hire is.

Why would the Redskins let Smith go? There are a couple of reasons. Smith is from Pittsburgh and his father still lives there. When a longtime employee (Smith has been in Washington for nine years, through three head coaching regimes) wants to look into an opportunity to work in his hometown, the right thing to do is to let him do it.

And it’s easier to let him do it when it’s a team in the other conference that you just played. Since Washington and Pittsburgh played in 2012, they won’t be meeting again until 2016.

One possibility for a replacement for Smith is Ken Flajole, who was fired by the Saints earlier this week. The Saints’ special teams were 20^th in the NFL according to rankings compiled by the Dallas Morning News. The Redskins were 31^st. There is no obvious connection between Flajole and Mike or Kyle Shanahan or Jim Haslett so that would seem to diminish his chances. But since it is late in the coach hiring cycle the Redskins have a limited number of candidates to consider.

Special teams coach is a potential opening; the Redskins know they have to replace wide receivers coach Ike Hilliard, who left for Buffalo two weeks ago. The name that keep coming up there is Jeremy Bates. He coached wide receivers and quarterbacks under Mike Shanahan in Denver from 2006-2008. Most recently Bates was the quarterbacks coach for the Bears but he was let go earlier this month when Mark Trestman was hired as head coach.

The coaching staff is returning from vacation next week so look for the hire or hires to come sometime in the next seven days or so.

Alexander talks about his role

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• Patience in the pocket pays off for RG3
• Saints’ draft pick penalty will stand, helping Redskins

Days until: NFL Combine 22; Start of 2013 NFL league year 41; OTA’s start 105

Need to Know: What's the Redskins' biggest need?

Here is what you need to know on this Tuesday, January 29, 106 days before the Redskins start OTA’s.

Saints won’t get their second back

When the Saints were hit with their penalties from the bounty scandal one of their penalties was the forfeiture of their second-round draft pick. However, when Commissioner Roger Goodell announced the penalties, which included some heavy fines, the following was included in the statement:

If they embrace the opportunity and participate in a constructive way, commissioner Goodell said he would consider mitigating the financial penalties on the individuals. In the case of the team, the commissioner would consider whether there are factors that would support modifying the forfeiture of the team's 2013 second-round draft choice.

Fans don’t particularly care about the financial penalties; that’s some other, rich guy’s money. However they do care about the draft pick. Goodell was asked about that as he did an “Ask Me Anything” on the Reddit website.

“Any chance the Saints get back their 2nd round pick for this years draft?” he was asked.

The answer was short and to the point

“No, the penalty will continue to include the 2nd round draft choice in 2013,” Goodell typed back.

This is relevant to the Redskins because the Saints would pick before the Redskins in the second round. That is the Redskins first pick of the draft due to the RG3 trade.

If all of the other teams in front of the Redskins had their picks, the Redskins’ pick would be No. 54. But the Browns have already spent their second-rounder to take Josh Gordon in the supplemental draft. So if the Saints’ penalty stays in place the Redskins’ first pick will be the 52^nd overall.

Once you get back that far in the draft a couple of spots doesn’t make a huge difference in terms of the quality of player you can get. But it makes a small difference and since the Redskins will need whoever they take to be able to come in and contribute at a position of need every little bit of advantage will help.

3 and out: The biggest need

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• RG3 Boulevard
• Grading the Redskins: Outside linebackers
• Is Danny Smith on the way out?
• Rookie Review: OT Tom Compton

Days until: Start of free agency 42; NFL draft 86; OTA’s start 106

Need to Know: Versatility will help free agent Alexander

Here is what you need to know on this Monday, January 28, 43 days before the start of NFL free agency.

Alexander shows versatility

After RG3’s knee injury and Trent Williams’ nightclub misadventure, the Redskins wound up with three players in the Pro Bowl. All of them happened to be linebackers—London Fletcher, Ryan Kerrigan, and Lorenzo Alexander.

Fletcher made three tackles and Kerrigan posted two. But the standout from the Redskins contingent was Alexander, who wasn’t even selected as a defender. He was there as the special teams player but he registered five tackles on defense, all of them solos.

Alexander is an unrestricted free agent and his ability to contribute on defense will go a long way towards determining the value of his new contract. After playing just 11 snaps on defense in 2011, he was in on 325 defensive plays this year, about 27 percent of the team’s total on defense.

Going into the year, Alexander learned the finer points of playing inside linebacker and he was supposed to back up London Fletcher and Perry Riley. But after Brian Orakpo was lost for the season with a Week 2 injury, most of his defensive action came from at outside linebacker. He ended up with 2.5 sacks, nine QB hurries and 12 QB hits.

With all of this, it looks like Alexander is making himself some money. His last contract paid him $3.8 million over three years. Alexander should be in line for an increase but it seems likely that his camp and the Redskins, again laboring under an $18 million salary cap penalty, will be able to come to an accord.

“A lot more goes into [the decision] than just money,” Alexander told CSNwashington.com before leaving for the Pro Bowl. “My family is here. Me and my wife have decided we’re going live here when I’m done. We have a business here. I’m very entrenched here in the community and I love this area.”  

Nothing is done until it’s done, but, barring a big difference in money or an opportunity to be a starter, it looks like the One Man Gang will be back in 2013.

Trent looks OK

@abe_squad tweeted out this picture of Trent Williams on the sideline at the Pro Bowl. It looks like he took that champagne bottle to the left side of his forehead. I’d say he’s probable for the season opener some 223 days from today

In case you missed it

• The Redskins could have problems finding contracts to restructure to create cap room.
• Redskins LB’s play well in Pro Bowl

Days until: 2013 league year starts 43; OTA’s start 107; NFL kickoff Sunday 223

Redskins have few restructure candidates

Thanks to the $18 million salary cap penalty they will be hit with this year, the Redskins are about $4 million over their 2013 salary cap number. That sounds like a lot to be over but normally it is something that can easily be handled by restructuring a few contracts. But that will not be easy for the Redskins to do.

The ideal contract for a restructure is one for a player with a high base salary, in the $10 million range or higher, and at least three years remaining. The team and the player get together and work it out so the player gets most of his salary for that year up front in the form of a signing bonus. That allows the team to spread the cap hit for that salary over the remaining years of the contract.

The problem is, the Redskins don’t have many high salaries this year. Their highest 2013 salary is $7.5 million and it belongs to DeAngelo Hall. He has just one year left on his deal making him a less than ideal restructure candidate but more importantly he will need to negotiate a reduction in salary if he is going to stay with the team. That alone could get the team under the cap but they will have more work to do in order to resign any of their own free agents or strengthen the team with other free agent signings.

Of the other top 10 salaries on the team, London Fletcher ($5.5 million), Santana Moss ($4.15 million), and Josh Wilson ($3.9 million) are in the last years of their deals. Although an extension could provide some cap relief, the team would be hesitant to give one to aging players like Fletcher or Moss.

The Redskins do have some possibilities when it comes to restructuring in Pierre Garçon (2013 salary $5.6 million, 4 years left on contract), Trent Williams ($5 million, 3 years), and Barry Cofield ($4.05 million, 4 years).

But there is a problem inherent in restructures that makes Bruce Allen and Mike Shanahan hesitant to execute them. It doesn’t make cap charges disappear; it pushes them off into future seasons. With the cap projected to be flat over at least the next two years, pushing cap charges into the future will cause problems down the road when the bills become due. In other words, they don’t want to make the same mistakes Vinny Cerrato made and end up with big cap numbers for aging veterans who become very expensive to keep but accelerated cap charges making it too costly to release. 

Need to Know: Learning how to win

Here is what you need to know on this Sunday, January 27, seven days before Super Bowl XLVII.

Other players were in nightclub with Williams

Details of the incident that would up with Trent Williams sustaining injuries that will keep him out of today’s Pro Bowl are slowly beginning to emerge.

Williams did not wander into the “M Nightclub” in Honolulu alone. He went with 20 to 30 other players to a party hosted by a rapper. There are still no details of the scuffle or what started it but it ended with Williams getting hit in the head with a champagne bottle and needing seven stitches as a result.

NFL.com is reporting that the aggressors in the fight were “under the influence of substances beside alcohol”. One of them, presumably the guy who conked Williams in the head, has been arrested for third-degree assault.

Officials have warned players to steer clear of the “M Nightclub” for the remainder of their stay in Hawaii. Sounds like solid advice.

Alexander: “We know how to win now”

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Days until: Super Bowl XLVII 7; NFL Combine 25; 2013 NFL Kickoff Sunday 224

Need to Know: Kerrigan looks to improve

Here is what you need to know on this Saturday, January 26, 109 days before OTA’s start.

Kerrigan wishes he’d played better in 2012

For a variety of reasons, most NFL players tend to put a positive spin on what they have done individually, whether you ask the about a play, a game, or a season.

But Ryan Kerrigan, who will play in the Pro Bowl tomorrow, is not happy with his 2012 season. Not just some of it but “the whole thing”.

He told John Keim of the Washington Examiner that the season did not meet his expectations.

“I definitely expected bigger things from myself and the team. We wanted to continue to advance,” Kerrigan told Keim. “Coming into the season I wanted to be consistent week in and week out and I wasn’t that for most of the season. That’s frustrating. Hopefully I can use that as fuel.”

He had a lot more to say about wanting to refine his technique and develop more moves as he rushes the passer. Go take a look at John’s article for more.

Three and out: Will RG3 be his own worst enemy in rehab?

In case you missed it

• Trent Williams will sit out the Pro Bowl after altercation
• Pro Bowl primer
• Grading the Redskins: Nose tackle

Days until: NFL Combine 26; 2013 NFL draft 89; OTA’s start 109

Report: Redskins' Williams out of Pro Bowl after altercation

The NFL and the Honolulu police department have issued statements confirmning that Williams was a victim in a nightclub incident. See our story on CSNwashington.com for details.

Trent Williams will not be playing in his first Pro Bowl on Sunday.

The Minnesota Vikings posted this announcement on their website:

Minnesota Vikings tackle Matt Kalil has been named to his 1st Pro Bowl replacing Washington Redskins T Trent Williams who will not be able to appear due to injury. The rookie out of Southern California started in all 16 games this season including the Wild Card Playoff in Green Bay. 

Grant Paulsen of 1067 The Fan reported that Williams was involved in an altercation last night and needed stitches, prompting his withdrawal from the game. 

Update: Pro Football Talk is reporting that Williams was a "victim" in the altercation and that he will be on the sideline with the NFC team for the game. The report says that others have been arrested in the incident.

Local authorities in Hawaii are expected to release a statement on the incident at some point.

A further update via Twitter from Adam Schefter of ESPN:

Sources at Pro Bowl say Redskins OT Trent Williams was "a victim." He suffered stitches in his head, got tasered but league believes he acted accordingly at nightclub fracas. Honolulu police have not returned telephone calls, though it is expected to release a statement on the situation.

Williams started all 16 games last year but he did battle knee and thigh injuries all year. His withdrawal leaves the Redskins with three Pro Bowl representitives in linebackers London Fletcher, Ryan Kerrigan, and Lorenzo Alexander (Alexander was chosen as the special teams player).