Rich Tandler's Real Redskins

From The stat pack: Time of possession key for Redskins

By Ryan O'Halloran 

* Barry Cofield’s six pass break-ups is first among NFL defensive linemen.

* Ryan Kerrigan’s four forced fumbles lead the NFL.

* The Redskins’ defense is first in sacks per pass attempt (9.78 percent). 

* The coaching staff has credited London Fletcher with a team-high 106 tackles and Josh Wilson with nine pass break-ups. 

* The Redskins’ record when they win time of possession is 3-0; when they lose it, 0-6. 

* Only four players on offense – Montgomery, Chester, Davis and Gaffney – have started every game. 

* Dallas quarterback Tony Romo is 17-2 all-time in November, best of any passer in the Super Bowl era.

* DeMarcus Ware has 10 sacks in his last 11 games against the Redskins.

 

Numbers confirm what we see--Skins offense struggles to score

By Rich Tandler

I’m interested in all kinds of stats such as those put out by Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus, although I dabble in them more than I dive into them. I think that no matter how well structured a given esoteric stat might be, it is only going to tell part of the story.

I like the simpler numbers better. I found a couple from Cold Hard Football Facts that involve just one mathematical operation and they make sense. The also demonstrate on their site that, for 2010 at least, that the teams that had a good performance in these two categories generally won more games than those that did not.

One is the Scoreability Index. This measures how many yards an offense must travel to put a point on the scoreboard. The formula is simple: Total Yards/Points Scored. The Redskins Scoreability Index this year is 19.3. To put it in simpler terms, they must gain 135 yards of offense (19.3 X 7) to score a touchdown.

To provide some context, the 49ers Scoreability Index is 11.6. That means that they have to travel just 81 yards to score the equivalent of a touchdown.

Although the Cold Hard Football Facts folks keep the index information for the current season behind a pay wall, they do have the 2010 results posted. The 49ers current score would have led the league last year while the Redskins would have been 31^st.

The Scoreability Index is primarily but not exclusively an offensive measure. Special teams (scores, field position) and defense (takeaways, field position) also play a part.

So the 49ers have a major edge when it comes to that measure. The Niners also show better in the other measure we’ll look at here, the Bendability Index.

This number is simply the defensive side of the Scoreability Index. It is Yards Allowed/Points Allowed.

The Redskins have given up 2405 yards and 139 points for a Bendability Index of 17.3. For the 49ers (2304 yards, 107 points) it is 21.5. Obviously, higher numbers are better here.

The average opponent has to gain 121 yards to get seven points against the Redskins while the other guys have to pile up 151 against the Niners. San Francisco’s Bendability Index in near the top of the NFL while the Redskins are in the middle of the pack. Again, offense and special teams have a major impact on this.

This stat has a very strong correlation to winning. The top two teams in the Bendability Index last year were the two Super Bowl teams, the Packers and Steelers.

Thinking of the Redskins, it is easy to picture why the rank where they do in these two measurements. Offensively, they usually have to work on a long field (only 10 takeaways and few big plays by the return team), and when they drive into scoring position they are plagued by botched field goals and red zone inefficiency. Add in the 16 times they have turned the ball over and you have an offense that might move the ball on occasion but can’t score very much.

Defensively, they benefit from Sav Rocca’s uncanny ability to put the ball inside the 20 without putting it into the end zone. And although the offense has turned the ball over plenty, the turnovers have rarely given the other team a short field to work with.

If these two stats and the teams’ performances hold to form, the Redskins will have a very tough time winning. 

 

Stats didn't lie this time

By Rich Tandler

Sometimes, statistics lie. For the Redskins yesterday, they did not.

You have heard the main numbers. The Bills outgained the Redskins by a margin of better than 2-1 (390 yards to 178) and they converted half of their third downs (7 of 14) while the Redskins converted less than a third of theirs (4 of 14). Ryan Fitzpatrick had nearly 10 yards per pass attempt (262 yards on 27 passes) and a rating of 116.4. John Beck averaged 6.3 per attempt (208 yards on 33 passes) and had a rating of 53.6.

Freddie Jackson outgained the Redskins on his own, posting 120 yards rushing and 74 yards receiving.

This post is going to be short since there is no point in piling on but let’s take a quick look at the drive chart before moving on. For the first three quarters, when the Redskins were still at least theoretically in the game, they got no more than one first downs during a drive just once. They got two on their third drive. The Redskins got 41 yards on that drive, the only one in the first three quarters where they got more than nine yards. Not surprisingly, the Bills had a time of possession advantage of almost 10 minutes. 

Sometimes a bad performance on offense is one that stops and starts. This one didn’t even have any starts.

 

Stats wrap: Redskins allow fewest yards since 2007

By Rich Tandler

There will be scrutiny of the Kyle Shanahan’s run-pass selections in Washington’s win over the Rams (and it will be broken down in detail here tomorrow as we did last week and the week before) but there is no disputing that for the game the play selection was slightly in favor of the run.

In the stat book the Redskins had 40 rushes but you take away five by Rex Grossman, three of which came when passes were called and two of which were kneel downs at the end of the game, and you get 35. Grossman threw 29 times and if you add in the three other plays that were called passes you have 32 pass plays.

It also is hard to argue that the offense was not effective. The Redskins outgained the Rams by almost a two to one margin, posting 339 yards of offense to just 172 for St. Louis.

Certainly, the raw numbers don’t tell the whole story and it is correct to take issue with some pass calls in certain situations but it is hard to argue with the overall effectiveness of the strategy.

You also can’t argue with how well the Redskins defense played even when you consider that they benefitted from a several dropped passes. The 172 total yards allowed were the fewest since they gave up 147 to Dallas on Dec. 30, 2007. Their seven sacks were the most since they sacked Raiders quarterbacks eight times on Dec. 13, 2009.

The Redskins did give up 10 points in the fourth quarter. But after Grossman threw another interception that gave the Rams the ball on the Washington 19 with a chance to tie, Bowen and Orakpo slammed the door with back-to-back sacks, forcing a punt. Then, after the offense went three and out, burning off just over a minute, the Redskins didn’t allow a last-chance drive advance out of Rams territory.